Track this topic | Email this topic | Print this topic

Quote (Death Penalty @ 27th March 2014 20:50)

By some process of what I have to assume is luck, my bracket is actually fairing somewhat well right now, aside from having placed Kansas in the final four.

It'll be interesting to see how things come down, as the top four point-getters right now have, I believe, the same final four.

Interesting. It may already come down to who gets into the Championship game and wins. Cursory glance:

Arizona = Me
Florida vs Zona, Florida = M Smart fan
Florida vs Louis, Florida = MD LOL
Michigan State = Ernst


Haven't fact checked that Neal style though.

--------------------

The clouds ran away, opened up the sky
And one by one I watched every constellation die
And there I was frozen, standing in my backyard
Face to face, eye to eye, staring at the last star
I should've known, walked all the way home
To find that she wasn't here, I'm still all alone

-Atmosphere "Always Coming Back Home to You"

Scenario generating is tougher on ESPN, but I think I have it. We're down to eight possible people left.

Tidu has the most chances left, with a 32% chance of winning assuming a 50/50 split for each game. He benefits from being one of only two people with Arizona as his champion, and having a sizable lead on the other person. If Arizona beats anybody but Michigan State in the finals, he wins. Arizona in the finals against UConn or Dayton also gives Tidu the big win!

Josh has the second-most chances left, 23.4% chance of winning the whole thing. Josh is solid as the only person with Wisconsin in the title game. There are a couple specific scenarios with Florida beating Michigan in the title game where Josh wins, but in general he needs Wisconsin to make it there to win the whole thing - if Wisconsin loses to MSU he can lose, but otherwise it rests there.

MoogleGenocide has an 11.7% chance of winning the whole dealie, with his hopes riding on Michigan. Michigan must be in the final game, and in most cases must win the whole thing. There are a couple scenarios where he loses with Michigan beating MSU in the finals, but they're not common - Michigan winning is his best bet.

BlitzSage has a 10.9% chance of taking home top honors. Michigan State must make it to the championship, but they can't be there against Michigan. He needs Kentucky to make it to the final four - if they don't, Arizona has to be in the title game for him to have a chance.

Nate has a 7.8% chance of winning it all. Florida has to win it all, and Wisconsin can't be in the game against them. Not much else matters - if Florida wins and Wisconsin goes out sooner rather than later, he's in good shape.

trucruballer has a 7.0% chance of going all the way. He has a variety of ways to win, but Michigan State has to beat UConn first. He can still do it if they lose to Dayton (and not Florida) in the final four, so basically he needs MSU to go far. He has a couple scenarios where Michigan beating MSU gives him the win, which would steal it away from MG above.

Ryan has a 3.9% chance of winning. He's not technically entered, but we can see his entry...so might as well talk about him! His final game must be Michigan against either UConn or Dayton, and Michigan cannot win. He also fares a lot better if Arizona beats Wisconsin in tomorrow night's game. It's a pretty specific chunk of things to happen for him to win.

And finally, Neal has a silly 3.1% chance of winning. Arizona has to win the whole thing, and they have to beat Michigan State. If that happens, then I can still take home the bacon. Any games not involving those two teams don't matter whatsoever - it just needs to be Arizona over MSU in the finals. I would actively root against my bracket in that case.

Sorry I haven't been able to do this more or give eliminated people their due, but I've been damn busy lately! I haven't gotten to watch as much basketball as I'd like.

--------------------

Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Quote (Neal @ 29th March 2014 01:01)

MoogleGenocide has an 11.7% chance of winning the whole dealie...

lol wut?

I'd literally laugh out loud. I haven't watched a single game or paid any attention at all, as per my bracket name .

--------------------

If you've been mod-o-fied,
It's an illusion, and you're in-between.
Don't you be tarot-fied,
It's just alot of nothing, so what can it mean?
~Frank Zappa

Sins exist only for people who are on the Way or approaching the Way

Quote (Neal @ 29th March 2014 01:01)

Josh has the second-most chances left, 23.4% chance of winning the whole thing. Josh is solid as the only person with Wisconsin in the title game. There are a couple specific scenarios with Florida beating Michigan in the title game where Josh wins, but in general he needs Wisconsin to make it there to win the whole thing - if Wisconsin loses to MSU he can lose, but otherwise it rests there.

Halfway to a perfect Final Four, and I think my least likely pick of the four is the one who won in OT last night. Liking those odds, though the games tonight will be pretty interesting.

--------------------

"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Amazingly, going from eight to six teams left only dropped one person from our competition...me! The other seven above still have possibilities. The likelihood has dropped tremendously for all but one of them, though.

Josh wins in 50% of remaining scenarios. Today's games really don't matter to him - he just really needs Wisconsin to win. If Wisconsin makes it to the final game and Michigan State isn't there against them, he wins. But even if MSU is there and Wisconsin beats them, he still wins!

Tidu wins in 12.5% of remaining scenarios. Kentucky must beat Michigan today, and it works to his favor if UConn beats MSU. Kentucky must be in the title game for him to win. If it's UConn vs Kentucky, he wins in any scenario.

BlitzSage has a 9.4% chance of winning. Michigan State and Kentucky must win today, and MSU must be in the title game. He wins if Kentucky and MSU are there together, or if MSU beats Wisconsin in the finals but Michigan loses to Kentucky.

trucru also has a 9.4% chance of winning. Both Michigan teams must win their games today, and it's best for him if they're in the finals together. If they are, it doesn't matter who wins - he wins. He also wins if MSU beats Wisconsin in the finals and Michigan beats Kentucky today.

MoogleGenocide ALSO has a 9.4% chance of winning! Michigan needs to win the entire tournament, and it helps if it's against Florida. He can also win if it's against UConn, but not if UConn beats Michigan.

Nate has a 6.3% chance of winning. He needs Florida to beat Kentucky in the finals, and that's it. Doesn't matter if MSU or UConn wins, they gotta lose to Florida.

Ryan has a 3.1% chance of winning, meaning he has one situation in the last 5 games where he can win - UConn and Michigan win tonight, UConn beats Florida, Michigan beats Wisconsin, and UConn beats Michigan. That's it!


--------------------

Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

And then there were three!

Florida > Wisconsin = Josh
Wisconsin > Florida = Josh
UConn > Wisconsin = Josh
Wisconsin > UConn = Josh

Kentucky > Florida = Tidu
UConn > Kentucky = Tidu
Kentucky > UConn = Tidu

Florida > Kentucky = Nate

Good luck to the three people still alive!

--------------------

Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Quote (Neal @ 30th March 2014 19:26)

Florida > Kentucky = Nate

Friggin' Nate. I would call this the most likely outcome with what's left to go, personally.

--------------------

"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Quote (Neal @ 30th March 2014 19:26)

Good luck to the three people still alive!

This wasn't a triumph...

Well, last year I didn't get involved because I didn't want to get invested and then lose... should've listened to myself.

... Also should've listened to my brother and picked Florida.

--------------------

Praise Be To Helix!

Funny, when I found out I might win I went so far as to check this thread two days in a row. Haha, oh well. There's always next year to forget about this and lose

--------------------

If you've been mod-o-fied,
It's an illusion, and you're in-between.
Don't you be tarot-fied,
It's just alot of nothing, so what can it mean?
~Frank Zappa

Sins exist only for people who are on the Way or approaching the Way

It's really silly that I can win after going 1/4 this weekend... but I'll take it I guess!

Didn't have a lot of teams I could really get behind this year, but I'm generally pleased with the outcome of this year's tourney. Go Gators?

--------------------

I find your lack of faith disturbing...

Quote (Neal @ 30th March 2014 18:26)

And then there were three!

Florida > Wisconsin = Josh
Wisconsin > Florida = Josh
UConn > Wisconsin = Josh
Wisconsin > UConn = Josh

Kentucky > Florida = Tidu
UConn > Kentucky = Tidu
Kentucky > UConn = Tidu

Florida > Kentucky = Nate

Good luck to the three people still alive!

Hah, these are the exact same scenarios I'm facing in my bracket pool at work.

Thankfully, in my big money bracket no one had Wisco in the Championship game and thus I will win $800 or so with anybody but FL winning.


Good luck Josh and Nate.

--------------------

The clouds ran away, opened up the sky
And one by one I watched every constellation die
And there I was frozen, standing in my backyard
Face to face, eye to eye, staring at the last star
I should've known, walked all the way home
To find that she wasn't here, I'm still all alone

-Atmosphere "Always Coming Back Home to You"

Quote (Tidu-who @ 3rd April 2014 08:55)

Hah, these are the exact same scenarios I'm facing in my bracket pool at work.

Thankfully, in my big money bracket no one had Wisco in the Championship game and thus I will win $800 or so with anybody but FL winning.


Good luck Josh and Nate.

Yeah, my work bracket has me in the prizes (not a money pool, it's company sponsored) if Florida makes the final game. I think if it's a Florida/Kentucky final, I automatically win the whole thing, and if it's Florida/Wisconsin, I'll be first or second depending on the winner, respectively.

I haven't won here since 2007, which was my only win to date in twelve years. Good luck to ME AND ME ALONE.

--------------------

"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

I picked good numbers, so this game be my fault. I blame the teams. >_>

Well, I could have won both at work and here if I'd gotten just one game right last night. I didn't, so I have to just settle for locking down the work bracket. Third is better than I've done in a very long time here, though, so I'll take that too. GG, Tidu and Kappa.

--------------------

"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Yeah, I basically picked the wrong mid-ranked teams to advance.

And it seems that's basically it. Bottom-ranked teams rarely advance far, but it's the mid-ranked ones that pull the upsets but you never know which ones will.

--------------------

Check the "What games are you playing at the moment?" thread for updates on what I've been playing.

You can find me on the Fediverse! I use Mastodon, where I am @[email protected] ( https://sakurajima.moe/@glennmagusharvey )

I done'd it!

--------------------

The clouds ran away, opened up the sky
And one by one I watched every constellation die
And there I was frozen, standing in my backyard
Face to face, eye to eye, staring at the last star
I should've known, walked all the way home
To find that she wasn't here, I'm still all alone

-Atmosphere "Always Coming Back Home to You"

So close! Ah well, a 2nd place finish is probably more than I deserve. Great tourney as always, guys. Looking forward to next year already!

--------------------

I find your lack of faith disturbing...