Track this topic | Email this topic | Print this topic

Short version: This is mainly copied from last year. Sign up on ESPN this year. Doesn't matter who you are, just flipping do it. It's a big part of CoN culture, and it could use a shot in the arm, couldn't it? http://narshe.me/CoNCAA2015 Post your team name here.

Longer version, cribbed almost exclusively from last year's and the year before that:

In 2015, it's a race to see who Kentucky can beat the worst. You can seriously expect to see at least half of any bracket you're in this year pick the Wildcats to win it all, and all those folks are making pretty rational picks. The trendy folks will pick laszlow's team, Virginia, and the crazy folks will pick someone from the Big Ten.

We're staying on ESPN for this year, as Yahoo will never again not suck. You can sign up for this year's tournament using an ESPN or Facebook account, or, if you played last year, renew your signup and be immediately put into the group. The link to initiate signup this year is: http://narshe.me/CoNCAA2015

If you're prompted for any further information, use this:

Group Name: CoNCAA
Group Number: 310266
Password: flanitor

Please post your bracket name in this thread, as always, or else it's hard to match up CoN names with other names. This year, Selection Sunday (the day we find out what teams are involved in the tournament) is on 15 March, and the games that count start on 19 March. That means you'll have the usual three and a half to four days to get your picks in, and we'll make sure to remind you.

Last year, we had twenty-two players. A few of them have gone away and probably won't be back; perhaps you could be a new member who wants in, or perhaps someone who's never done it before and wants to show up? The most fun games seem to have at least 20 players, so we'll hope for the best.

I'll say, as always, that you do not have to care one bit about basketball to do this. You could watch every game this year and still fare miserably, and you can also just make wild guesses and you'll still get one or two crazy upsets that nobody else gets right. The fun is in getting everyone else's "I can not frigging believe you got that matchup right!" reactions. CoN chatters or forumgoers will always give advice for picks, and if you're one of those who likes to pick based on the team's nickname, we can tell you what those are. Signing up and making all of your picks takes no more than 15 minutes if you aren't the researchy type and just want to get in to give it a try; if you log in via a social media account, you could probably reduce it to under ten minutes of total time taken.

Here's the list of who's in:

• CoN Corpse Party - R51
• Baptizing the Masses - Neal
• Mexican Orange Clearance - Gabe
• Hardly Globetrotters - Stiltzkin
• The Laszt of Us - laszlow
• WildGuessing - AltheaValara
• Tidu's Teabagging Again - Tidu-who
• CoNcaster Rovers - Cefca
• Go Chanticleers - Kappa the Imp
• LOL MD 7 - GO MARYLAND - Super_Moogle
• Fighting Mongooses - baralai888
• ProJechtion Perfection - finalalias
• Genghis CoN - Blitzsage
• XenoNCAA - Quad
• Villanova is good again? - Gears
• Tummy + Clammy Tummy - Salamando
• Crane (Left) - Iain Peregrine
• Play Wisconsinbly! - Death Penalty
• Buffalove. - SSJ_Cloud
• UConn, I am Disappoint! - Sabin
• Slam Dunk Shuffle - ???

Don't recognize some of those names? They're chatters or are just generally too lazy to come around any more. You, too, could aspire to that lofty goal.

This post has been edited by Rangers51 on 19th March 2015 15:12

--------------------

"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Done. Probably same team name as last year, cuz I'm original - Hardly Globetrotters.

--------------------

We apologise for the inconvenience

I'm in. My bracket name is WildGuessing.

--------------------

Watch me play games on Twitch!
Schedule:
Mondays: Kingdom Hearts
Fridays: Final Fantasy XI
Saturdays: Final Fantasy XIV Dawntrail Side Quests & Shenanigans

Quote (AltheaValara @ 14th March 2015 15:08)

I'm in. My bracket name is WildGuessing.

Yay, our first new player of the year! I was worried we wouldn't have any.


--------------------

"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Howdy Partners.

I originally went with Tidu's 2015 before trying to think of a real name. My edit to Tidu's Teabagging Again looks like it didn't "take". No matter.


I must defend my CoNCAA title.

This post has been edited by Tidu-who on 17th March 2015 00:38

--------------------

The clouds ran away, opened up the sky
And one by one I watched every constellation die
And there I was frozen, standing in my backyard
Face to face, eye to eye, staring at the last star
I should've known, walked all the way home
To find that she wasn't here, I'm still all alone

-Atmosphere "Always Coming Back Home to You"

Been awhile but happy to be back. I'm in with the Fighting Mongooses.

--------------------

"The answer is, of course, that it would be best to be both loved and feared. But since the two rarely come together, anyone compelled to choose will find greater security in being feared than in being loved."
- Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince

Cefca is in the lead for best team name so far, in my biased opinion.

--------------------

"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

My picks are in. I used the coin flipper at random.org, lol. It will be fun to see if I get any right.

--------------------

Watch me play games on Twitch!
Schedule:
Mondays: Kingdom Hearts
Fridays: Final Fantasy XI
Saturdays: Final Fantasy XIV Dawntrail Side Quests & Shenanigans

XenoNCAA, because I'm not creative. Go Iowa!

--------------------

Squenix games completed:

FFIII
FFIV
FFVI
FFVII
FFIX
FFX
FF Tactics: Advance 2
Chrono Trigger
Dragon Quest 8
Dragon Quest 11
Super Mario RPG

Genghis CoN is here.

Why? Didn't want Blitzkrieg. Not the association I want to propagate...

Let's make a deal here, to make it interesting:

No one pick Kentucky! Change your bracket to have Kentucky lose at least one gme, if you haven't already.

What do you guys think? Deal?

--------------------

Praise Be To Helix!

ProJechtion Perfection, hoping for a perfect bracket. Go Zags!

Quote (BlitzSage @ 16th March 2015 21:49)

Genghis CoN is here.

Why? Didn't want Blitzkrieg. Not the association I want to propagate...

Let's make a deal here, to make it interesting:

No one pick Kentucky! Change your bracket to have Kentucky lose at least one gme, if you haven't already.

What do you guys think? Deal?

Ha ha, that would be fun, but I don't see it being possible to get everyone on the same page for it. I'd say don't plan on it unless you were going to anyway, because trying to get it set up in the next day and a half might just end up with people feeling screwed over.

--------------------

"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Count me in - Crane (Left)

Quote (Rangers51 @ 17th March 2015 18:27)

Ha ha, that would be fun, but I don't see it being possible to get everyone on the same page for it. I'd say don't plan on it unless you were going to anyway, because trying to get it set up in the next day and a half might just end up with people feeling screwed over.

I'm actually not sure if I will pick them. My gut's telling me that them going undefeated might cause them to get careless. The problem is guessing when that might happen. That's just a gut feeling, because they're probably going to run away with it.

--------------------

Praise Be To Helix!

The games that count start tomorrow, a little more than 24 hours from the time I'm posting this. If you've been posting here recently, why not give it a try, even if sports are stupid?

For those who are already signed up, make sure you fill your brackets in. You can only do it until the first game starts, and forevermore after that point you're mocked for being forgetful.

--------------------

"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Finally got my bracket finished. Will there be the usual analysis of people's brackets so we can see how good/terrible our own is?

This post has been edited by Cefca on 18th March 2015 19:39

Filling out the good ol' bracket now, entering as Play Wisconsinbly! Despite the name, I couldn't help but put my alma mater into the champion slot

--------------------

Currently Playing : Final Fantasy V
Most Recently Beat : Elder Scrolls: Skyrim
Favorite Game : Final Fantasy X

The newest CoNcast is up! Have a listen!

I made my picks in a rush and haven't had chance to check them. God knows what I've gone for, but it's a combination of mental and boringly predictable. I'm just cheering for Gongaga and the Chocobos. Cos, y'know. CoN.

--------------------

We apologise for the inconvenience

Hah, one of my final four is already out.

If you mean Iowa State, Cefca, Neal had them in the Final and I had them in the Elite 8. I had them in the Final Four of both of my money brackets.

--------------------

"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Yep. Iowa State. At least other people had them going far too, hah.

Quote (Death Penalty @ 18th March 2015 22:02)

Filling out the good ol' bracket now, entering as Play Wisconsinbly! Despite the name, I couldn't help but put my alma mater into the champion slot

100% with you, DP. I think my rule is if my alma mater (UVA) is a 1 or a 2 seed then I *MUST* write them down as the champion. Even though this year is probably going to be more of a Kentucky coronation than a free-for-all.

--------------------

this is a blog mostly about comics and videogames
END SPOILER

Alright, let's figure out where everybody stands. First off, there have been some eliminations already.

Sally was eliminated when Providence, her champion, was taken down.
Althea was eliminated when Indiana, her champion, went down.
Gears was eliminated due to Virginia and Iowa State's losses and having too many picks in common with people ahead of him.
Xenon was eliminated when Northern Iowa, his champion, was eliminated.
Cefca was eliminated when Kansas, his champion, got shanked.
Super Moogle was eliminated along with Villanova's defeat and having too much in common with others.
Lasz was eliminated when Virginia, his champ, got taken out.

But that still leaves plenty of people who can still win!

Bobbo (~16.6%)
Bobbo is in a good spot with Duke as his champion. Kentucky is still the overwhelming favorite, but only one other person has Duke as their champion, so as long as they are still around, Bobbo is in a good spot.

Tidu (~16.5%)
Tidu is in first among all the Kentucky-havers, and his runner-up, Gonzaga, is still around as well. This puts him in a good spot at least for the time being.

Geoffrey (~10.5%)
Geoffrey also benefits from a unique champion in Notre Dame. He also has enough teams left in the final four that he can win even if Notre Dame doesn't take it all, it would just require a bit more luck than some others.

Iain (~8.2%)
Iain sits up high as the other person with a Duke champion. He shares the same final two as Bobbo, though, but they have different members of the final four. Iain has Louisville and Arizona, which would help him pass Bobbo, who has Oklahoma and Wisconsin.

Baralai (~8.2%)
Despite losing his champion in Villanova, Baralai is still significantly alive given that he has Arizona in the title game and only one other person has them there. Baralai needs somebody to beat Arizona in the title game, but it would need to be somebody less common than Kentucky or Duke.

Stiltz (~7.2%)
Stiltz is the only one with Wisconsin as the winner, so his fate rests pretty much with them. I don't even think it matters if Gonzaga, his runner-up, is there - Wisconsin winning coupled with Stiltz's surplus of remaining teams should lead him to a title in that event.

Gabe (~7.0%)
Gabe is the other person with Arizona in the title game, and Gabe has them winning. Arizona is his key to a title here - the further they go, the higher he will place. Many people have them in the final four, but only Gabe and Baralai have them advancing.

Neal (~4.8%)
Neal doesn't have a common path to a championship - most of his picks have already been made. He needs Oklahoma to get to the final four, and he probably needs them to advance to the title game to make up for his loss of runner-up Iowa State.

Kappa (~4.4%)
Kappa is similar to Neal - lots of his winners are still alive, they're just common winners at this point. He needs an obscure team to come out of the east - probably NC State - to have a chance of coming out on top.

FinalAlias (~3.8%)
FinalAlias is in alright shape with Gonzaga as a winner. It's just that everything else is very common so he lives and dies by them. If they fall, he will be eliminated.

Mystery Jimmy (~3.7%)
Who are you, Mystery Jimmy??? Well, it doesn't matter. Your picks are pretty common but having Michigan State in the final four helps you out a bunch. If they make it far, your odds of winning will improve!

BlitzSage (~0.7%)
BlitzSage needs some specific things to happen. He needs Duke to advance to the final four for sure, and Kentucky or West Virginia needs to be there, too. But then it helps him the most if Duke loses to somebody obscure like NC State. There aren't a lot of opportunities here.

R51 (~0.1%)
Josh needs Kentucky to win and for Duke to be in the final four. Xavier also almost certainly needs to beat Arizona and Louisville almost certainly needs to beat NC State. Additionally, UCLA needs to beat Gonzaga. Josh could be out in a hurry once the next round of games comes about.

SSJ_Cloud (~0.1%)
Even fewer opportunities are there for Ryan, who can only tie at this point. And every time, he would tie with BlitzSage! They need mostly the same things, but Ryan takes away BlitzSage's chances for singular wins if Kentucky goes all the way.

This post has been edited by Rangers51 on 23rd March 2015 18:20

--------------------

Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

. . . So... you're telling me there's a chance!

--------------------

Praise Be To Helix!

Yes! Wasn't first out. Go Badgers!

--------------------

We apologise for the inconvenience

The games went to the favorites last night, so not much movement happened. The only elimination was Our Glorious Leader R51, who is still very much in the running for a decent placement...he just can't win.

Fortune smiled upon Geoffrey, who now has the highest chance of winning. However, this is from a purely statistical basis - his champion, Notre Dame, faces a juggernaut in Kentucky next. So while Geoffrey sits at a seemingly-comfortable 20.1%, he is eliminated if Kentucky wins. Don't sit too pretty!

Following Geoffrey is Tidu who continues to sit comfortably by virtue of high-scoring early rounds and common late-round picks, a devastating combination. Nothing in the remaining sweet sixteen games can eliminate him, but he would do well to have Kentucky and Arizona advance to the Final Four. He currently sits at a 17.2% chance of winning.

Stiltz is also poised to do fine, at 14.5%. However, he is mostly dependent on Wisconsin for now - they must be in the title game for Stiltz to win. They don't necessarily need to win, but they would have to lose to a longshot team - Louisville, NC State, Oklahoma, Utah, or UCLA. Michigan State, Gonzaga, and Duke need to lose as quickly as possible.

Gabe is doing fine! With a 13.2% chance he's looking steady. He's similar to Stiltz, except instead of Wisconsin, he's dependent on Arizona making the title game. Similarly, they don't need to win, but the opponent they lose to needs to be a longshot. No Duke, Gonzaga, or Oklahoma here.

Baralai moved up to a 10.3% chance, and also needs Arizona to go far. He could also handle Notre Dame being in the title game. But oddly, neither of them can win the title - he needs one of those longshots to defeat either Arizona or Notre Dame.

Bobbo is a curious case. He sits with a 7.6% chance of winning, but he's fairly well-rounded. He benefits in having Duke as his champion, but Duke could lose to Utah and Bobbo could still win. It's a much longer shot than a Duke victory, but it still exists. There is a small combination that could eliminate him tonight (Utah and MSU both winning) but otherwise he should be around on Saturday.

Chances are slimmer for FinalAlias at 4.9% but he's still alive! Gonzaga MUST win, or FA cannot win the title. But the second Gonzaga's out, so is FA, so these games are crucial. If they can get to the Final Four then FA can take a breath, but until they get past the potential matchup with Duke, FA should be sweating.

Iain needs Arizona to make it to the Final Four over Wisconsin, and it helps if Duke is there, although he could still win with some corner cases involving Utah or UCLA. Iain also can't have Oklahoma make it to the Final Four, or he can kiss his 3.6% chance of winning goodbye!

Neal needs a lot of help, especially with this third-person nonsense. Oklahoma must beat Michigan State (barf) for me to stay alive, and both Kentucky and Arizona must make the final four. Gonzaga isn't a must-lose, but it's much better for me if Gonzaga goes down. Only a 2.2% chance for me, so I'm not holding my breath.

Also alive on the backs of Oklahoma is Nate, who needs Oklahoma to beat Michigan State, but allllmost needs them to lose to the NC State/Louisville winner in the elite eight. Like me, he needs Arizona and Kentucky in the final four, and Kentucky would have to win that hypothetical matchup. 1.5% chance. Getting slim, ya'll.

Also at 1.5%, but a very slightly worse 1.5% chance than Nate is BlitzSage, who is STILL ALIVE! I am indeed telling you there is a chance. Things went as well as they could for him yesterday, and now he needs Kentucky, Arizona, and Duke to all make the final four. Certainly not impossible - they're probably the remaining favorites in their regions. He does better with Michigan St than Oklahoma, but neither would eliminate him. Interestingly enough, if Duke wins today, he is alive no matter what happens in the other three games.

MysteryJimmy - still unidentified, as far as I know, still remains with a 1.4% chance of winning. He needs Michigan State to win tonight, and he should be preferring a UCLA win over Gonzaga. A Gonzaga win would require Louisville, Michigan State, and Utah to all win for him to still be alive...but at least he wins if Kentucky faces MSU or Utah in the title game.

And finally! Still living is SSJ Cloud, moving up from 0.1% to a whopping 0.4%! That's all you need in this tournament - a team and games to be played. Unfortunately Ryan can only tie, but a tie is still first place I guess - he would tie BlitzSage in some scenarios where Kentucky/Arizona/Duke are in the final four. He also requires UCLA to beat Gonzaga, and Oklahoma can't be in the title game. There's...a...chance...!!!!

Good luck to most.


EDIT: If the favorites (MSU, Louisville, Duke, Gonzaga) win tonight, we will eliminate only four people! With seven games left we'd still have nine people alive, which would be pretty stunning.

This post has been edited by Neal on 27th March 2015 15:07

--------------------

Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Thanks Neal! this is like listening to the game over the radio.

I'm in excellent shape for both of my money pools, particularly if Oklahoma and Notre Dame eat it soon, so it softens the blow of another poor showing at CoN. So there!

--------------------

"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Feeling pretty good about my chances to go Back-to-Back right now!

Thank you as always Neal for all the statistical analysis. I actually do the same for my own pools now, mostly because I got the idea from you.

Gears, sorry to see you were eliminated so early man.



--------------------

The clouds ran away, opened up the sky
And one by one I watched every constellation die
And there I was frozen, standing in my backyard
Face to face, eye to eye, staring at the last star
I should've known, walked all the way home
To find that she wasn't here, I'm still all alone

-Atmosphere "Always Coming Back Home to You"

Well, as expected, the favorites all won, so we see the ends of SSJ Cloud, Kappa, Neal, and Mystery Jimmy. But it was only a matter of time for all of us.

Tidu (18.8%) - Key Team Kentucky. If Notre Dame beats Kentucky, he's mostly (but not completely) out.
Geoffrey (15.6%) - Key Team Notre Dame. They must be in the title game. They can lose but only to the Louisville/MSU winner.
Stiltz (13.3%) - Key Team Wisconsin. They must be in the title game but could lose to Louisville (but not MSU).
Gabe (12.5%) - Key Team Arizona. They have to win it all. Literally nothing else matters - if they win, Gabe wins. Nobody else.
FinalAlias (8.6%) - Key Team Gonzaga. He needs Gonzaga to go all the way. There are a couple other things in there but it mostly boils down to Gonzaga.
Baralai (8.6%) - Key Teams Arizona, Louisville, MSU. Arizona or Notre Dame must be in the title game, but they must lose to MSU or Louisville.
Iain (7.8%) - Key Team Duke. Duke needs to make the final four, and either Duke or Louisville must be in the title game. They also have to win.
Bobbo (6.3%) - Key Teams Duke, Wisconsin. Duke and Wisconsin must make the final four, and Duke must win the title. Everything else is irrelevant.
BlitzSage (3.9%) - Key Teams Kentucky, Arizona, Duke. Those three must be in the final four. If MSU joins them, Kentucky and MSU must be in the title game. Few chances, but it could happen!

--------------------

Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me