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Quote (Rangers51 @ 26th March 2013 10:03)

Quote (Kappa the Imp @ 26th March 2013 08:40)

Perfect amount of analysis for this point in the tourny, Neal, thanks.

I'm really surprised by the prevalence of Miami and, to a lesser extent, Gonzaga in the later rounds.  I assumed Miami would be underrated!  I'm starting to enjoy Larranaga's special brand of old man crazy more and more.

And for that rogue member with Oregon as the champion... keep that dream alive, baby.

That member is Sally.

And that is why we love her, lol.

I've got to admit - one of my top reasons for wanting to do this every year, ignoring the fact that it takes literally one minute and gives much more amusement, is that I find Neal's statistical analyses fascinating

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The newest CoNcast is up! Have a listen!

Sadly I never got my Python stuff running, otherwise I could modify it to actually output results based on more than just a 50/50 split on each game. Maybe I'll try that in the offseason.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Wow, I only understood about a quarter of that post, Neal - but blow me if it doesn't all sound incredibly impressive. Though, if your stats reckon I'm 7th most likely to win this, there must be some fundamental flaw somewhere...

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Quote (Stiltzkin @ 26th March 2013 17:16)

Wow, I only understood about a quarter of that post, Neal - but blow me if it doesn't all sound incredibly impressive. Though, if your stats reckon I'm 7th most likely to win this, there must be some fundamental flaw somewhere...

But this is what I say every year! You don't have to watch religiously or at all to have a shot, it's great!

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Maybe a few too many blowouts to call it a great day, but man, that Arizona/Ohio St. game was a good one!

Unfortunately, I think Miami was the last team in the field that I genuinely enjoyed watching save maybe Michigan, but at least Tom Crean was exposed on the national stage for being an unreasonably mediocre coach. And it's impossible to know if Wichita St. is actually good since they haven't really played anyone yet, but they are starting to feel 2011 Butler-esque, don't you think?

Somehow, my bracket is still alive... at least until FGCU blows up another victim tomorrow. Go Eagles.

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...

I feel like I'm sitting pretty at least for one more day, since my title game is between Ohio State and Syracuse. Cuse's defense looked really good last night. Kinda neat that we get at least one more Big East matchup before the conference just totally explodes.

Look for me at the Louisville/Oregon and MSU/Duke games tonight. I'll be a dude with a bright yellow shirt near courtside in a corner, but there will probably be tons of us. Hopefully the Ducks show up!

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Aaaand, I'm toast. There is one very unlikely scenario left that sees me the victor. It has to be a Louisville/Syracuse final, and Wichita State must defeat Ohio State next round.

Screw it all, I say go DUNK CITY!

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"When I turn the page
The corner bends into the perfect dog ear
As if the words knew I'd need them again
But at the time, I didn't see it."

~"This Ain't a Surfin' Movie" - Minus the Bear

Wow, a TON of people got dumped over these past two days. I thought we would lose maybe half of the participants at most, but we lost thirteen and now only seven members left can win the whole thing...and one of those can only tie. Let's take a quick peek at our friends who have left us...

Nyte was taken out when Miami and Oregon both lost.
Xenon's hopes died with Trey Burke's three against Kansas.
MeHael also went down with Kansas and IU losing.
SSJ_Cloud lost both Miami and Indiana and needed them both to advance.
Baralai only has Ohio State left after losing Miami.
Tidu can only get Louisville and Ohio State right, which are common picks.
Kappa has lots of teams left but shares too many picks with his brother.
FA only has Louisville left alive.
Gears has Louisville in the title game but nothing else.
Josh only has OSU left in his final four.
Stiltzkin lost Kansas, his champion.
Poor Sally lost Oregon, her champ.
Gabe lost Michigan State as his overall winner.

Now we can see our remaining seven, in order of possibilities remaining! If someone has a tied possibility, I'm just counting it as a "half" win here.

Bobbo - 2/128 - 1.6%
As Bobbo mentioned before, he is still alive, but is somewhat of a corner case. He has a very specific Final Four that he needs - Louisville vs Wichita St, Michigan vs Syracuse. This could definitely happen, and if it does, he simply needs Louisville to win out - the Michigan/Syracuse winner wouldn't matter at all. Sound easy? It just might be. If his Final Four pans out, suddenly he'd be in very good shape.

Super Moogle - 4/128 - 3.1%
SM is also somewhat of a corner case as he can only tie for first, but it happens in several scenarios. Each time he's tied with Sweets. He absolutely requires Louisville to go to the title game, but a lot of other things can happen. Only Louisville or Syracuse can win the title and Ohio State and Florida need to not be in that game...though they can at least make it to the final four.

Geoffrey - 4/128 - 3.1%
Geoffrey is also a pretty easy case to suss out - he needs Louisville to win the whole thing and he needs Marquette and Michigan in the final four. Beyond that, the Wichita St / Ohio St winner doesn't matter, nor does the Michigan/Marquette Final Four matchup. He's in very good shape if he gets those three final four correct, with about half of the possibilities landing in his favor.

Kane - 23.5/128 - 18.4%
Kane lives and dies with Marquette. They must beat Syracuse and they must beat the Michigan/Florida winner, though that team doesn't particularly matter. He has a few winning scenarios in the title game outside of Marquette but they are very few and are always Wichita St or Duke. It's pretty much Marquette or bust, but sometimes it's nice to have an uncommon pick this late in the game. You know exactly where you stand and they looked damn good dispatching Miami.

Sweets - 30/128 - 23.4%
Sweets is in pretty good shape as there isn't one team he's entirely relying on. Florida is the biggest culprit for him, but there are still even some situations where Michigan can win that game and he still survives. His picks are very versatile here and that makes him dangerous...he's only lost Indiana from the final four and didn't have them going to the title game. Louisville, Ohio State, and Florida are very strong as his other three picks there. Sweets would have the highest number of scenarios left if he didn't share so many of those victories with Super Moogle.

GMH - 31.5/128 - 24.6%
GMH is also in very good shape given the diversity of his picks. Like Sweets, he doesn't need much, but Michigan beating Florida is ALMOST key. He's the exact opposite of Sweets when it comes to Michigan and Florida, as he has two scenarios where Florida can win that game and he can still win the whole thing. Interestingly enough, though he has Ohio St as his champion, he has more winning scenarios with Michigan in the final game than OSU. Michigan needs to be in the title game in all but three of his scenarios to make it - in those other three, it's either Marquette or Florida. Syracuse is his death knell in the title game.

Neal - 33/128 - 25.8%
I may have the most scenarios left, but it's never actually a 50/50 shot, is it? The final four matchup that matters the most here is Syracuse beating Marquette as I only have four winning scenarios where Marquette comes out on top there. Ohio St as my champion helps a bunch, and Syracuse in the title game is a unique pick keeping me alive. I win any situation where Syracuse and Ohio State make it to the title game together, regardless of who wins...so I guess go Syracuse and OSU!

Looking forward to the rest of the games. Brackets be damned, go Big Ten!

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

I prefer to think of it as sharing too many picks with Sweetdude, since we share the same final four and final game and champion. 'Tis a shame that I would still be in the race if I had only believed more in Michigan like I wanted to (see my earlier post: "Teams I'm totally overrating for no reason"). How crazy is Trey Burke?!

But after a terrible first day, I was sort of hoping just to make a respectful showing by year's end... so here's hoping I don't totally embarrass myself...

3 Big East, 2 Big Ten, 1 SEC, 1 ACC, and 1 MVC left. Looks like you still need a little Cinderella magic to be successful, A-10.

Great year for low seeds like #15 FGCU, #9 Wichita St., #13 La Salle/#12 Ole Miss, and #12 Oregon, but it seems less unbelievable this year -- matchups and mis-seeding had something to do with it. Playing the Pantheon of overrated choke-fiends (Georgetown, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Gonzaga) definitely didn't hurt.

Looking forward to a great end! Go Shockers??!?!

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...

Quote (Neal @ 30th March 2013 16:35)

Sweets - 30/128 - 23.4%
Sweets is in pretty good shape as there isn't one team he's entirely relying on.  Florida is the biggest culprit for him, but there are still even some situations where Michigan can win that game and he still survives.  His picks are very versatile here and that makes him dangerous...he's only lost Indiana from the final four and didn't have them going to the title game.  Louisville, Ohio State, and Florida are very strong as his other three picks there.  Sweets would have the highest number of scenarios left if he didn't share so many of those victories with Super Moogle.

I'm pretty sure after the last year I played this I made a mental note NOT to make any changes a day or so later after I'd settled on some picks. I'm regretting putting Michigan St to beat Duke and also regretting not having Florida to win it all, both of which I'd put down at first, and then changed, because I'm an idiot.

Also Kappa I didn't see that we picked identical last rounds, that's... a good thing?? To be honest I think I've been around the same level each year and kind of bomb from here or fluke a third place. I'm expecting annihilation in the next round few rounds. If Louisville don't lose to Duke (they will) it's probably going to come in the form of Marquette since they've been killing me since Davidson.

I started watching the games last week to really squeeze the most out of my Unblock Us. First game I saw was Kansas v Michigan, couldn't've been luckier, what a game. Yeah that little (probably taller than me) Trey Burke guy is insane. From the games I've seen no team is looking like champions yet.

This post has been edited by sweetdude on 30th March 2013 17:44

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Scepticism, that dry rot of the intellect, had not left one entire idea in his mind.

Me on the Starcraft.

Wichita State out of nowhere! I love it. Even though I had Ohio State winning it all....still love it.

That bumps out Geoffrey and Kane, both due to Marquette's loss. I'll do a bigger look after the games tomorrow. Go Michigan and Duke (they both are going to lose because of me)!

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

I say it every year when something huge happens. But this is why March Madness is the greatest spectacle in sports! Go Shockers!

This post has been edited by Sabin on 31st March 2013 02:25

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"When I turn the page
The corner bends into the perfect dog ear
As if the words knew I'd need them again
But at the time, I didn't see it."

~"This Ain't a Surfin' Movie" - Minus the Bear

I knew I was finished long ago, so it's go Wheat Chewing Bee-like Hick guy from here on out! Unbelievable win.


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The clouds ran away, opened up the sky
And one by one I watched every constellation die
And there I was frozen, standing in my backyard
Face to face, eye to eye, staring at the last star
I should've known, walked all the way home
To find that she wasn't here, I'm still all alone

-Atmosphere "Always Coming Back Home to You"

That injury to Kevin Ware was one of the most awful sports injuries I've ever seen. I got sick to my stomach. WHY SO MANY REPLAYS?!

We're down to three possible winners. Here are the scenarios:

Louisville > Michigan = Bobbo, Super Moogle, Sweets
Michigan > Louisville = GMH, Bobbo, Gears
Louisville > Syracuse = Bobbo, Super Moogle, Sweets
Syracuse > Louisville = Neal, Bobbo, Gears
Wichita St > Michigan = GMH, Neal, Bobbo
Michigan > Wichita St = GMH, Neal, Bobbo
Wichita St > Syracuse = Neal, GMH, Bobbo
Syracuse > Wichita St = Neal, GMH, Bobbo

So premature congrats to Bobbo, who can finish no lower than third. The rest of us fight out for one of those coveted top 3 spots!

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Ware's injury is the second most gruesome sports injury I've ever seen. That's one brutal injury, and they kept showing it over... and over.. and over... :shudder: ... However, most gruesome sport injury still goes to Shaun Livingston's knee injury some 6 or 7 years ago. Ever see a knee turn 180 degrees? It's on YouTube if you're ready to cringe


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"When I turn the page
The corner bends into the perfect dog ear
As if the words knew I'd need them again
But at the time, I didn't see it."

~"This Ain't a Surfin' Movie" - Minus the Bear

Quote (sweetdude @ 30th March 2013 12:40)

Also Kappa I didn't see that we picked identical last rounds, that's... a good thing??

Turns out it was a bad thing for both of us

Looks like I'm going to end up in the 10th-6th range, which is fine by me. Fun to watch Michigan's all-out assault and Louisville turn it up to the next gear today.

And Bobbo... why... why would you remind the world of poor Shaun Livingston's knee...

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...

Quote

Wichita State out of nowhere! I love it. Even though I had Ohio State winning it all....still love it.

Fun fact: I picked them to win it all solely because of this picture.

(FYI: The protagonists' rebel faction is named Gekkostate, in the series Eureka Seven, which I'm a big fan of.)

This post has been edited by Glenn Magus Harvey on 1st April 2013 16:57

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Check the "What games are you playing at the moment?" thread for updates on what I've been playing.

You can find me on the Fediverse! I use Mastodon, where I am @[email protected] ( https://sakurajima.moe/@glennmagusharvey )

Firstly, this national championship was sensational to watch. From the fast start from Michigan, the avalanche of 3's, the high flying dunks (eat your heart out, FGCU), to the back and forth tussle of the 2nd half, this was a great championship game to another great NCAA tournament. Pitino followed up his Hall of Fame announcement with a stellar coached game to prove it.

While I want to say it was my power of prognostication that lead to my 2nd consecutive CoNCAA title, this year--even more than last year--was more about who's bracket was least destroyed rather than who made the most correct picks. I mean, only 4 out 8 quarterfinal teams correctly picked, and just 1 Final Four team--one of my teams being eliminated in the first round (never again, Wisconsin... Never. Again.)--and still pulled out a victory. But I'll take the claim that I out-picked everyone else in this year of busted brackets.

The Big East Conference goes out a champion, and so do I! See you next year, everyone, where I'll go for a 3rd consecutive title!

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"When I turn the page
The corner bends into the perfect dog ear
As if the words knew I'd need them again
But at the time, I didn't see it."

~"This Ain't a Surfin' Movie" - Minus the Bear

Congratulations Bobbo Sabin. Pretty close in the end. I missed out by two points, but I don't take too much stock in that because the margins are basically win/lose. If Michigan had held out I'd be down in, like, 10th or something. Still though, I think I'm right in saying I've picked the champion in all the times I've played except Kentucky last year because it was too too obvious, and then all the fuss was completely justified and I felt a bit stupid. Definitely made the mistake this year of not being a bit more wild in the quarter-finals onwards so too many overlaps with other people. All in all it's been fun! Wish I'd watched more games.

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Scepticism, that dry rot of the intellect, had not left one entire idea in his mind.

Me on the Starcraft.

Aaaaaand I don't win anything, which means all is still right with the world.

Came close though. Also tied with Gears for having the most (numerically) correct picks.

This post has been edited by Glenn Magus Harvey on 9th April 2013 09:11

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Check the "What games are you playing at the moment?" thread for updates on what I've been playing.

You can find me on the Fediverse! I use Mastodon, where I am @[email protected] ( https://sakurajima.moe/@glennmagusharvey )

Not my best tournament in terms of the bracket, but what a fun tournament to watch. I can't remember one being this entertaining, and that was one of the best title games I've ever watched. Comes really close to Duke/Butler from a few years ago. I'm sad Michigan didn't win, but it was hard to root against Louisville after seeing them come together so well after Ware broke his leg. Nice work by both teams!

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

I was kind of tuned out by the Final Four for a couple reasons, but this really was a good tournament to watch. Having seen just a few minutes of the championship game before crashing into bed, I was shocked to see that Louisville came back to win - Michigan seemed to have the magic touch early. It's kind of too bad that the women couldn't pull off the double last night, though.

Anyway, Sabin, Super Moogle (lol) and sweets, enjoy your awards!

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

I had no idea that Bobbo just pulled back-to-back victories. It's official: he's the CoNCAA Billy Donovan and will henceforth be known as Bobbo "Joakim Noah" Sabin.

I try not to over exaggerate recent sports events in the heat of the moment, but holy cow, this was one of the best set of Final Four/Championship games in at least 10 years. The onslaught of Spike Albrecht followed by the ice cold answer by Luke Hancock made for the greatest half of college basketball I've ever seen (live).

And I am slightly ashamed that I was able to finish 5th in a year where I get barely half of the picks right.

Here's to next year!!

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...

I'm sad I missed it this year. College sucks ><

Yeah, Clock, I was looking for you, bad timing on being away until now.

I think part of the problem with recapturing users is that a lot of people have signed up with Yahoo accounts that have emails tied to them that never get checked. Now that you can sign up via Facebook or Google, maybe that's the way to go going forward to make sure you get notified.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?