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I even tried and came in last! For shame!


OH WELL I DON'T REALLY CARE FOR BASEBALL ANYWAY SO IT'S COOL.



;D

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You're telling me that there's no hope.

I'm telling you you're wrong.

It is ridiculous how many people are officially busted at this point. Generally it's not down this far until we're down to eight, but with twelve we're way down:

Eliminated:
Awesome sauce
Stuart Scott's Eye
My name is not Gabe Kansas.
528491
Galatic Amaru
Tidu's Triumphant Turtles
Xenon's gonna suck again
SD's STDs
LOL Maryland Pt. 3 LOL Hoyas?
Pop POP
Cajun Commando
The Theme from A Summer Place
You Sunk My Bracket-ship!
Bruce Pearl's House Party
Ravenous Ravenous Rhinos
Bigmoney
Shamondlatron9000

Can only tie:
Go Green as usual (Olly)

Still alive:
Ancient scrolls unearthed (MeHael)
So easy a caveman can do it. (Ryan)
SkeletonHarvesters (Del)
Our Team Name Doesn't Isnt fit (Clock Doc)
DP's Ps of D (Death Penalty)
Mr. Flores looks at me funny (Nate)
Michael Jordan's Bracket (FallingHeart)
Patrick Warburton's Facepaint (Kane)
Lazzie Balboa (Lasz)
Potential For Anything (Mike)
Kawhi Leonard is a BOSS (Baralai)

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

How the &%$# am I still alive? I'll have to look into this....

But poooor Marquette. Down 25 at the half, 31 one minute into the second. ACC, baby.

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END SPOILER

Quote (laszlow @ 25th March 2011 16:31)

How the &%$# am I still alive? I'll have to look into this....

Well, after those first two games of the day, you're not. You and Ryan kicked the bucket, and Jimmy joins Olly in the "Tie" section.

But good god, those games were just not interesting at all. I watched the first halves and then turned them off a little bit into the second half because it just wasn't something I wanted to watch. Both UNC and Kansas looked scary-good tonight.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

I'm amazed I'm still in it. Last year around this time I'd definitely been eliminated. It's much more fun when you're (theoretically) still competitive.

Well, my bracket was already dead, but now it's double-dead thanks to Ohio State losing. And how about that VCU, right?

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this is a blog mostly about comics and videogames
END SPOILER

Quote (Kane @ 26th March 2011 03:45)

I'm amazed I'm still in it. Last year around this time I'd definitely been eliminated. It's much more fun when you're (theoretically) still competitive.

Definitely. Especially if it's just one team that you're pulling for by the E8. I've been utterly hammered this year but I'll still keep watching the games. As much as Duke were the only toe I had in the door this year, I didn't mind seeing them royally beaten by Arizona in the second half. Good game.

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Scepticism, that dry rot of the intellect, had not left one entire idea in his mind.

Me on the Starcraft.

Just as there are 8 basketball teams remaining in the tournament, we have 8 people left who are still in the running for first place in the CoNCAA tournament. I will break down the eight in order of least likely to most likely to win, based entirely on the number of combinations left that will give them the win.

Hilarious Longshots: Olly and Jimmy (0.5 / 128 combinations each)
Key Team: Arizona
Olly and Jimmy are still in the tournament, but the best either can do is tie...and it's with each other. Only one combination out of 128 exists where these two tie each other, so it's pretty straightforward analysis: Arizona must beat Kansas in the title game, and Butler and UNC must join them in the final four. It's certainly a long shot, but I actually wouldn't be terribly surprised if those four teams were the final four. At least they don't need VCU to advance, who has about as much of a chance of beating Kansas as...well, as Olly or Jimmy do of winning this tournament. Next.

Statistical Anomaly: Del (4 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Kansas
Del is a jackass and literally picked no upsets in the entire tournament, giving him a Control Bracket of sorts. Fortunately, most of the top teams have gone down, leaving Del with only a slim chance of winning. Kansas must win the tournament, and Butler and UNC must reach the final four. There are only four possible combinations, but given that they include wins from UNC and Kansas, there are definitely worse positions to be in.

In The Weeds: Kane (5 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Florida
Kane has very few winning combinations remaining, but all five include UNC, Kansas, and Florida in the final four, and those are all the favorites in their matchups, which helps. Kansas must make it to the title game, and if it's against Arizona with the correct final four, he wins either way.

If I Insult Him He'll Win: Mike (8 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Butler
Mike has a lot of possibilities remaining to win, but this is mostly because he wins in several situations where crazy stuff happens. He is overly-reliant on UConn, but in a weird way - he needs UConn to play in the title game, but they must lose. Additionally, they must lose to either Florida, VCU, or Butler, who may very well be the three least-likely teams remaining to win the title this season. He has the best chance at staying alive as long as Butler stays alive, as they are the champion in half of his winning combos. It's a rough road for Mike, but if upsets keep happening, he'll stay in.

The Favorite of the Underdogs: Baralai (16 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: UConn
Of the eight people remaining, two are very serious favorites and the other six are kinda limping into the field. Of those six, Baralai has the most chances left to win. His hopes rely ENTIRELY on UConn - there are 16 possible combinations remaining in which UConn wins it all, and those 16 are the only ways in which Baralai can win. Literally ANYTHING ELSE can happen, but as long as UConn continues winning, Baralai remains in this competition.

Second Place is First Loser: Nate (46 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Kentucky
Sure, on paper it looks great if you have a 36% chance of winning, assuming every game has a 50-50 shot of going either way. In Nate's case, though, everything currently rides on Kentucky. As pretty as he is sitting, if UNC takes Kentucky out before the final four, Nate is completely done. It helps him a little more if Arizona takes out UConn, but there are still scenarios where he wins if UConn wins. Aside from Kentucky, Nate has situations in which he can win with any other champion except UConn and UNC.

The One To Beat: DP (48 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: UNC
DP currently has the highest chance of winning the overall tournament, but there are still obvious flaws on his path to the championship. UNC beats Kentucky in 42 of those 48 winning combinations, so if Kentucky can move to the final four, it severely cripples DP's chances of winning. UConn and Kansas - likely favorites in their games - are also teams that DP could use losses from. Nate has a much better spectrum of eventual winners, as DP can't win if UConn, Kentucky, or Kansas wins the whole thing, and those teams (especially Kansas) are heavy favorites at this point.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Quote

Del is a jackass and literally picked no upsets in the entire tournament

Nice going, Del

Thanks for figuring this all out, Neal! Fun to read.

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Most Recently Beat : Elder Scrolls: Skyrim
Favorite Game : Final Fantasy X

The newest CoNcast is up! Have a listen!

Really OSU and Pitt go out? My bracket team name definitly doesn't isn't fitting.

Every year I try to run analysis for some of my other pools, and every year I realize that it's impossible to do it as well as Neal. Cheers for another awesomely accurate, consummately concise Elite Eight wrap-up, Neal. My cup brims with jealousy.

And I agree... I'm well aware of the statistical likelihood of my victory, but for some reason it all just seems very improbable. I'm not expecting too much, I'm just happy OSU went down.

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...

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If I Insult Him He'll Win: Mike (8 / 128 combinations)

I like me those odds. I honestly didn't realise I was still in the competition - once my champion was out, I thought I was done for. Though, I had the same thing last year, except without having SELECTED a champion.

Quote

And I agree... I'm well aware of the statistical likelihood of my victory, but for some reason it all just seems very improbable. I'm not expecting too much, I'm just happy OSU went down.

I'm the opposite. Statistically unlikely, but it's so going to happen. Same thing happened in '09, and by Jeebus it will happen again. Just watch.

I could have sworn I had chosen Kansas to win. Oh well. Good luck guys.

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"And that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana-shaped” -Sir Bedevere the Wise

Thanks for taking the time to figure that out.

By the way, how did you go about doing so?

Quote (Kane @ 26th March 2011 16:03)

By the way, how did you go about doing so?

I end up writing overly-complicated Excel things that take everybody's picks and automatically score them based on every possible remaining combination. It's really silly but I like making things like that.

Today's games knocked out a few folks - Kane was knocked out first following Butler's victory over Florida, and Olly and Jimmy's tie game scenario disappeared once Arizona bit the dust against UConn. There are still five possible champions, and they can all still win it outright, and things have tightened up quite a bit.

Del can win with 2 of the remaining 32 combinations. UNC and Kansas both must win tomorrow's matchups, and then Kansas must win it all. In a hypothetical UNC/UConn matchup in the final four, the winner doesn't matter as long as Kansas beats them.

Mike can win with 6 of the remaining 32 combinations. He didn't lose a lot today, but his champion now must be either VCU or Butler. There is no combination tomorrow that will knock him out - he will still be in it until the final four games. UConn MUST beat the winner of Kentucky/UNC.

DP can win with 7 of the remaining 32 combinations. All of his eggs are in UNC's basket for tomorrow - they must beat Kentucky or he is out of the running. Not only must they beat Kentucky, but they also need to beat UConn in the final four. As long as UNC makes the title game, there's only one possible combination in which DP doesn't win the whole thing, and that's if they lose to Kansas.

Baralai can win with 8 of the remaining 32 combinations. None of the games tomorrow matter at all - he rests ENTIRELY with UConn. If UConn wins it all, he wins no matter what. If they fall short anywhere along the way, so does Baralai. It helps to have a unique champion pick!

Finally, Nate can win with the remaining 9 combinations. On the flip side of DP, Kentucky must win tomorrow's matchup or he is completely eliminated. Following that, they must make the championship game except for one combo where UConn makes it but loses to Kansas.

It seemed like the field was between two people yesterday, but it's completely open now. Someone will be eliminated regardless of the results tomorrow, so let's look at eliminations based on possible results tomorrow:
Kansas/UNC: Nate is eliminated
Kansas/Kentucky: DP and Del are eliminated
VCU/UNC: Nate and Del are eliminated
VCU/Kentucky: DP and Del are eliminated

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Who would have guessed that VCU would be dominating Kansas?

It seems at least every other possession they're draining a three.

Quote (Kane @ 27th March 2011 14:20)

Who would have guessed that VCU would be dominating Kansas?

It seems at least every other possession they're draining a three.

They even stopped hitting threes, and they're still pretty much controlling the game. Not a stellar effort from VCU overall, but more of a complete misunderstanding by Kansas that to get points you need to put the ball through the hoop.

I don't know how I feel about the pool anymore. Do I really deserve to win anything if I only have one F4 left? Let's not even go that far... will I have any F4's left before the day is done??

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...

BEST FINAL FOUR EVER.

This eliminates DP and Del and now we only have three participants left.

Nate - 4/8 chance of winning. Simple enough, if Kentucky beats UConn, Nate wins. If UConn beats Kentucky, Nate is eliminated. The other games don't matter at all.

Baralai - 2/8 chance of winning. As expected, he's still relying on UConn. UConn needs to win the whole thing, doesn't matter if they beat VCU or Butler.

Mike - 2/8 chance of winning. Oh god Mike is going to win again. He wins if VCU or Butler beats UConn in the finals.

I love so much that VCU and Butler are in the Final Four. TEEN COACH BATTLE.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Ah well, I had a good run!

Quote

I love so much that VCU and Butler are in the Final Four. TEEN COACH BATTLE.

If only they met in the final game instead!

Commonweaaaaaaaalth!

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Most Recently Beat : Elder Scrolls: Skyrim
Favorite Game : Final Fantasy X

The newest CoNcast is up! Have a listen!

Although I would like to see a Butler/VCU final game, it's that much sweeter that AT WORST there will be an 8 seed in the finals. Yes.

I can't believe I got Kentucky right. Mike is going to win again.

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...

The amazing thing about this is that I have NO IDEA who is going to win at this point. Seeding is completely out as any of these teams could easily win two more games, and any of them could easily have a bad day and lose. This VCU squad seems so much better than the George Mason team that went to the final four as an 11 - this one is winning every game convincingly. I would not at all be surprised if they won the championship, and would probably pick them to play against UConn in the final game at this point.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

I'd like to see VCU go all the way at this point. Ohio St. losing was the final nail in the coffin for my bracket.

It looks like I'll be either 1st or 4th, and I'll know for sure before the final game is even played. Could be worse.

All four teams are really very intriguing. Kentucky has most of the NBA talent to boast, but also what seems to be the biggest implosion potential. UConn has Kemba Walker (and Calhoun), but how long will the magic last for this team? Butler is obviously an awesome story and I love all that is Matt Howard, but it's hard to imagine that they aren't really the Cinderella of this season. And VCU is pretty much indescribable.. and they look really, really good.

I wouldn't mind winning the pool, sure, but I really like this UConn team. On the other side, I love Butler but VCU winning would be historic.

What a crazy tournament.

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...

Caves of Butler continues!

Rooting for UConn tonight, both because I hate Kentucky and it would be fun if the champion of CoNCAA wasn't determined before the final game.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Oh God, mike is going to win again.

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...

Quote (Kappa the Imp @ 2nd April 2011 19:17)

Oh God, mike is going to win again.

I hope so! And that's not a shot at Baralai, I would just really love it if Butler was able to win the title. It would be one of the best stories ever in college basketball.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Pulling for Butler tomorrow. I'm still happy over the fact that Duke was clobbered.

Caves of Butler!

Quote

Oh God, mike is going to win again.

Also, that.

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Currently Playing : Final Fantasy V
Most Recently Beat : Elder Scrolls: Skyrim
Favorite Game : Final Fantasy X

The newest CoNcast is up! Have a listen!

CAVES OF BUTLER.

Go Bulldogs!

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Congrats to UConn and Calhoun. Something about it all feels right. Great, great, great tournament this year.

Okay, now that the formalities have been said... was that even a D1 college game? Worst title game I've seen since Maryland managed to have slightly less butterflies than Indiana and stumbled their way into a (otherwise well-deserved) championship.

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...