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The first weekend's train wrecks are over, and the second weekend's train wrecks start tomorrow. Here's where we stand now:

1. footbigmike
2. Gears
3. sweetdude
4. Kappa
5. laszlow

Del, Quad, and all the folks who didn't make picks are already out, and I'm sure a good number more folks will be out by the time Sunday is over. Probably Dragon_Fire, Tiddles, and Anh, possibly Kane. Maybe more if someone gets the whole Final Four right, I'm not real good at extrapolation.



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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Because I'm a huge nerd, I made a spreadsheet last night that took in everybody's picks and spat out how many of the possible outcomes remaining (32,768 = 2^15) would go in each participant's favor. It excludes ties (~1000) so there is some definite margin for error.

Mike: 8,244 / 32,768 = 25.2%
Ryan: 3,822 / 32,768 = 11.7%
Lasz: 2,828 / 32,768 = 8.6%
EB: 2,488 / 32,768 = 7.6%
Nate: 2,242 / 32,768 = 6.8%
Neal: 2,134 / 32,768 = 6.5%
TruCru: 2,062 / 32,768 = 6.3%
Sasquatch: 2,012 / 32,768 = 6.1%
Blaine: 1,600 / 32,768 = 4.9%
Nyte: 1,564 / 32,768 = 4.8%
Gears: 1,056 / 32,768 = 3.2%
JohnM: 914 / 32,768 = 2.8%
Lamza: 738 / 32,768 = 2.3%
Thomas: 352 / 32,768 = 1.1%
Jav: 304 / 32,768 = 0.9%
DP: 240 / 32,768 = 0.7%
Gabe: 168 / 32,768 = 0.5%

This is based entirely on 50/50 shots for any team to win any given game. Sorry for some of the names - I had to go by bracket clues to identify some of you. I will post more detailed analysis later on based on which teams must win for people to stay alive.

EDIT: I would share the spreadsheet somewhere if it weren't 415MB in size with over 3 million formulas.

This post has been edited by Neal on 24th March 2010 15:07

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

0.9%! Those are my kind of odds! Now, how do I go all in on this again?

No, but seriously, it appears I've no manner of luck at all this time around. Generally my random picks get me further ahead than this! Oh well. At this point, I'm hoping for last place. If I'm going to lose, better to be the best of the worst!

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Okay, but there was a goat!

I figure I still have a shot as long as WVU stays in it. Really, I'm most shocked that Mike has such a high chance of winning when he didn't pick a champion... and he might actually live up to his team name.

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this is a blog mostly about comics and videogames
END SPOILER

Quote (Neal @ 24th March 2010 10:06)

Sorry for some of the names - I had to go by bracket clues to identify some of you.

Except for one person, everyone's forum name is in my big table post on page 1, if you want to use it, Neal. Glad to see these come back again this year.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Quote (Neal @ 24th March 2010 16:06)

This is based entirely on 50/50 shots for any team to win any given game.

After what we've seen this year that's probably quite accurate!

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Scepticism, that dry rot of the intellect, had not left one entire idea in his mind.

Me on the Starcraft.

A teenager in Chicago claims to have a perfect bracket through the first two rounds. If the rest of his predictions come true, Mike will win the tournament, and nobody wants that.

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/Auti...y-88916437.html

Alrighty! Let's do a little more analysis. I'll be able to get more in depth at the Elite 8 level, since there won't be 32,768 different outcomes to look into, but it's worth a look.

Already Eliminated:

Super Moogle: With a Kansas champion, a common runner-up, and one missing F4, the best he can do is a second-place finish, one point behind his brother. If memory serves me well, that was his fate last year as well. I would feel bad about it if his Elite Eight hadn't been a hilariously boring 1-1-1-1-2-2-2-2.

Tiddles: Champion, runner-up, and one remaining F4 all out, his last pick of Duke isn't nearly uncommon enough to get him the points to retake the lead and hold it with insane upsets. Oh well.

R51: Kansas as the champion is a common theme of doom. He still has three of his other Final Four remaining, but only Baylor is uncommon enough to make any difference, and it's not enough to put him into the lead.

FallingHeart: Kansas, the kiss of death! Even worse boat than Josh - FH had all #1s making it to the Final 4 (boo hissss), and they're too common to take him into the lead. Eliminated!

Kane: Exactly the same boat as FallingHeart, except those other three #1s are the only Elite Eight he has remaining.

Quad: Can get three Elite Eights, but not a single F4 team remains. Falls short, even with the possibility of upsets.

Del: Syracuse and Michigan State are around, but nobody's left for the Final Four, so there aren't enough games to make up ground.

MeHael, Tidu, Olly, and Relm: Make picks next time.

This concludes our Day Of Eliminations. Tonight I will just feature the competitors most likely to be eliminated within the next couple days.

Barely Alive:

Gabe (0.5%): Ohio State is Gabe's first big obstacle. Tennessee must defeat Ohio State, or else Gabe is eliminated. Favored West Virginia and Duke must also avoid being upset or else Gabe is toast. His champion, Duke, is still alive.

Death Penalty (0.7%): Syracuse must defeat Butler for Death Penalty to stay alive. Though Baylor is also in his championship game, there are many scenarios remaining where St. Mary's can win and DP isn't eliminated.

Jav (0.9%): Butler, Xavier, Purdue, St. Mary's, and Washington all must win against their favored opponents. If any one of these teams loses, it's curtains for Jav.

Thomas (1.1%): Kentucky and Baylor must win, or else Mystery Thomas is eliminated from the competition.[/b]

Anh (2.3%): Anh has Michigan State in the title game, which is a unique choice. As long as they stay alive, he is alive in the competition.

Fadien (2.8%): A long shot, but no single team decides his fate in this next round. However, if any #1 seed other than Kentucky even MAKES the national championship game, Fadien cannot win.

Gears (3.2%): Even though he's currently in first, he shares too many common picks with other teams. Cornell, Ohio State, and Xavier all must win their next game for Gears to have any shot, as Kentucky and Kansas State must be stopped.

EDIT: Gosh, I was wondering why this seemed to take me so effing long this season...last year I didn't do my first real CoNalysis until E8.

This post has been edited by Neal on 25th March 2010 15:42

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Aw yeahhhh Butler!

So, that solidifies the death penalty for Death Penalty's bracket /lamejokes.

But I am sad that Neal didn't have an analysis for me yet

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...

Quote (Kappa the Imp @ 25th March 2010 22:50)

But I am sad that Neal didn't have an analysis for me yet

That means you're doing well!

Five eliminations today!

First off, as expected, Death Penalty was eliminated once Syracuse was upset by Butler. His chances were slim, but he held on for the first two rounds.

Secondly, Jav, who needed like a bajillion upsets to stay alive, was eliminated when Washington couldn't keep up with West Virginia in the second half. It also didn't help that K-State pulled it out against Xavier.

Third, Fadien goes out in a surprise. Though no single team determined his fate, the combination of Butler and Kansas State winning was enough to mathematically eliminate him.

Fourth, perennial competitor Gears went out after Kansas State held on against Xavier.

SURPRISE ELIMINATION! The only one to not get an analysis was Blaine, who went out in this round. Syracuse was his champion, but he still could've held on with a lot of upsets. Unfortunately, West Virginia pulled it out, eliminating Blaine.

Four games tomorrow - who will be eliminated...next? Likely victims:
Anh (1.1%) - Michigan State must win. If Baylor wins, Purdue must also win.
Gabe (1.4%) - Tennessee, Duke, and St. Mary's must all win.
MysteryLocke (2.3%) - As long as Baylor wins, he'll still be around, but if they're out, he's out.
Sasquatch (2.4%) - Ohio State must win. If Purdue wins, St. Mary's must also win. If Baylor wins, Duke must also win.
Neal (3.1%) - Duke must win, but he will not be rooting for that. If St. Mary's wins, Ohio State must win.
Sweetdude (3.8%) - Duke must win. If that happens he is safe no matter what.
Ryan (4.3%) - Baylor must win. He is safe if that happens.

ABSOLUTELY SAFE TOMORROW:
Nyte (6.3%)
Lasz (9.0%)
Nate (12.1%)
TruCru (12.5%)
Mike (41.7%)

No situation exists where any of those five will be eliminated. Say hello to your frontrunners, ladies and gentlemen. If Northern Iowa, Tennessee, St. Mary's, and Purdue win, those are your only five participants left.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

I got trashed pretty hard by that Syracuse loss. I feel like I have a chance, though, as long as my champion sticks around.

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this is a blog mostly about comics and videogames
END SPOILER

8 teams left in the actual tournament, giving us 128 possibilities for the outcome of the tournament. Since this number is much more manageable, I was able to account for the ties, which only occurred in four of the outcomes.

Raw chances, assuming 50/50 for all games:
Mike: 43/128 = 33.6%
TruCru: 16/128 = 12.5%
Neal: 13/128 = 10.2%
Lasz: 12/128 = 9.4%
Sweetdude: 12/128 = 9.4%
Nate: 9/128 = 7.0%
Nyte: 9/128 = 7.0%
Ryan: 8/128 = 6.3%
Mystery Thomas: 6/128 = 4.7%

Eliminations from last update:
Anh took a hike due to Purdue's loss to Duke. Gabe was finished when Ghost Mary was exorcised. Sasquatch was hunted down once Ohio State had to go into hiding. This leaves us with nine folks!

Mike:
Mike definitely has the most opportunity remaining to win, but he forgot to enter a pick for the overall winner. This presents an interesting situation, as he needs an uncommon winner. If both Kentucky and Duke advance to the Final 4, he is eliminated, and if either remaining #1 seed wins the title, he cannot win. The only reason his percentage is so high is that the upsets have allowed for some wacky teams to be potential winners.

TruCru:
TruCru is the only remaining participant with Kentucky as the overall winner, which puts him at a great advantage. Literally no other teams matter for him - he wins if and only if Kentucky wins the national championship. All scenarios are like this! The rest of the teams could be sucked into black holes and he would still win.

Neal:
With two final four gone (one as the runner-up), his remaining two have to do well. If Duke and West Virginia don't advance to the Final Four, he cannot win. Duke must also play for the national championship, though scenarios exist where Neal can win even if Duke falls short.

Lasz:
West Virginia, West Virginia, West Virginia. As soon as WVU is eliminated, Lasz is too. If WVU wins the whole shebang - and it isn't against Kansas State - Lasz wins it all.

Sweetdude:
Similar to Neal, Sweetdude's hopes rest on the right side of the bracket, needing Duke and Kentucky to advance to the Final Four in order to be victorious. Not only that, but Duke must also defeat Kentucky in their F4 matchup for Sweetdude to have a shot at the title. Anything less spells elimination.

Nate:
More right-side-of-the-bracket shenanery! Nate also needs Kentucky and Duke to advance to the Final Four in order to stay alive. He can win with either Kentucky or Duke advancing in that matchup, but it is much more favorable if it is Kentucky. In each situation where Duke advances and Nate wins, Duke ended up losing in their title bout - once to MSU and once to Tennessee.

Nyte:
Nyte's fate rests upon Kansas State. All of his winning scenarios involve the Wildcats taking home the whole shebang, so if they're eliminated before that, he can't win. A KSU championship does not guarantee victory for Nyte, and even if they make it to the final four, Nyte is eliminated if Duke and West Virginia also advance.

Ryan:
Ryan has a very specific final four, needing Butler, Kentucky, and Baylor all to advance. Additionally, Baylor must play for the national championship, though a victory isn't necessary. No #1 seed can win the title.

Mystery Thomas:
WHO ARE YOU MYSTERY THOMAS? Whoever you are, you need a Kentucky/Baylor matchup in the final four, which Kentucky must win. Then Kentucky has to lose in the championship game, and even then it's not a guarantee for poor Mystery Thomas. Looking the least likely of all.

If all higher seeds win (with Kentucky breaking the tie with Duke), TruCru would win the tournament. If all lower seeds win, Mike would win. If I had to pick who I think will win at this point, it would be TruCru or Nyte in the final game, with TruCru winning. But who knows?

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

So, if I'm reading right, Neal, Lasz, and (unbelievably) Mike are the only ones left! This is nuts.

PS, thank God Calipari lost.

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...

Quote (Kappa the Imp @ 27th March 2010 21:34)

So, if I'm reading right, Neal, Lasz, and (unbelievably) Mike are the only ones left! This is nuts.

PS, thank God Calipari lost.

Absolutely right. Hilariously, the Michigan State / Tennessee game now longer has any implication on who wins the whole thing. Lasz and Mike are definitely around for the long haul and cannot be eliminated tomorrow, but I need Duke to beat Baylor to stick around. At the moment, Mike wins in 50% of remaining scenarios, while Lasz and I win in 25% each - however, Mike does not win in any scenario in which West Virginia or Duke is the overall champion.

• If Duke makes it to the title game, Neal wins the whole shebang.
• If Baylor makes it to the title game, Mike wins.
• If West Virginia makes it to the title game, Lasz and Mike go head-to-head, with Lasz winning every instance with WV as the champ and Mike winning every instance with WV as the runner-up.
• The left side of the bracket no longer matters whatsoever, at least in determining the overall winner. Nothing that Tennessee, Michigan State, and Butler do can change who finishes in first. It can probably shake up some runners-up, but they're all losers anyway.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

I remembered last night why sports and pubs go so well together. Hearing everyone in the place go nuts for Butler in the second half was fantastic.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

My bookies has Duke to win the tournament at 7/4, West Virginia at 2/1, Butler at 5/1, Baylor at 8/1, Tennessee at 9/1 and Michigan State at 11/1.

I can't believe Butler is now the third choice winner, but going on their record previously, how they've played, and now that they're in the semi-finals, it does make sense. Now that West Virginia are through I've got at best a third place finish if Duke win everything. But Neal's right it's still a loser position! I can't believe how many shots Kentucky missed last night.

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Scepticism, that dry rot of the intellect, had not left one entire idea in his mind.

Me on the Starcraft.

Hey, you know that Calipari: amazing recruiter (who's probably in violation of all kinds of NCAA rules), great at coaching the dribble-drive, horrible at coaching to shoot. The title game two years ago was hilarious. Cal repeatedly insisted that Memphis's poor free throw shooting wasn't going to be an important factor, but goodness gracious did Memphis ever murder themselves with bad free throws.

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this is a blog mostly about comics and videogames
END SPOILER

Sweets: a big part of Butler's odds is the fact that they now get to play games at home in Indianapolis. That and the fact that they've been really frigging good.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

The left side actually doesn't matter at all, it only matters if West Virginia wins or loses at this point.

Top 3 Finishes:
MSU > WVU: Mike, Death Penalty, Gears
WVU > MSU: Lasz, Mike, Death Penalty
Butler > WVU: Mike, Death Penalty, Gears
WVU > Butler: Lasz, Mike, Death Penalty
MSU > Duke: Neal, Gabe, Sweets
Duke > MSU: Neal, Gabe, Sweets
Butler > Duke: Neal, Gabe, Sweets
Duke > Butler: Neal, Gabe, Sweets

I find myself rooting for Duke to beat West Virginia, which just feels wrong, but screw the Big East. After that, go winner of Butler/MSU.

This post has been edited by Neal on 2nd April 2010 08:50

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

It looks like the Mountaineers....have crumbled.


YEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHH

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

somehow I overcame the elimination odds to come in second place! Thank you Tennessee over Ohio State and Duke. DUKE. DUKE!!!!

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And have you found your joy, in this near dead world of ours?

Third. Congrats Neal and Gabe. C'mon Butler! They have to win it now!

This post has been edited by sweetdude on 4th April 2010 18:43

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Scepticism, that dry rot of the intellect, had not left one entire idea in his mind.

Me on the Starcraft.

Would have been lovely to see Butler pull it out. I, for one, missed the game as the rigors of driving 1500 miles in the span of four days got to me.

In any event, Neal has informed me that he wants to return his prize money back into the pool to run the server, so all I have on my plate is to award the CoN awards for the top three finishers. So I did. Here's the final rankings:

1. Neal
2. Gabe
3. sweetdude
4. Sasquatch
5. footbigmike
6. Death Penalty
7. Kappa
8. Gears
9. Laszlow
10. ??? (Thomas?)
11. Fadien
12. Super Moogle
13. R51
14. FallingHeart
15. Tiddles
16. Hanyou
17. Anh
18. SSJ_Cloud
19. Baralai888
20. Kane
21. Quad
22. Dragon Fire
23. Nytecrawla
24. Del
25. MeHael
26. Tidu-who
27. Olly
28. RelmArrowney

Another fun year both for basketball and for picking. I'll see some of you again for World Cup in a couple months, and all of you and then some for CoNCAA next year.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Congrats, Neal!

(and Gabe, and sweetdude)!

Congrats on the good picks Neal, Gabe and sweetdude. This year saw some pretty crazy stuff. Given that, I'm pretty surprised I was as close to the top as I was.

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