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Yesterday, the San Diego-based DFC Intelligence delivered an industry briefing expanding upon the firm's previous assessment that Sony's PlayStation 3 is likely to take last place in the next generation's console market. According to DFC, Sony's intent to launch the PS3 with a $600 price tag may primarily discourage consumers and the industry alike, forcing the company into "handing its competitors a golden opportunity" to get ahead.

Ken Kutaragi, Sony's CEO, has reportedly stated that the PS3 is more comparable to a computer than a traditional gaming machine in that upgrades such as a writable Blu-ray drive and increased system memory are possible. The firm, speaking of differing ways in which the PS3 could disrupt Sony's current market lead, believes these upgrades will result in a steep price incapable of decreasing at a quick rate similar to that of most game systems: "By fixing its hardware standard for several years, video game console systems have been able to significantly lower prices over time by not having to upgrade to the latest technology," DFC points out.

Nintendo's Wii and Microsoft's Xbox 360, on the other hand, both have the potential to become the leader in installed base, says DFC. Although Japan isn't about to warm up to the Xbox 360, the North American market provides it the strength it needs to dominate the gaming front. However, the Wii - with its broad range of appeal and the lowest price of the three consoles - "could end up number one in market share for the next generation."

In the end, the intelligence firm remains ever-critical of Sony, predicting that its "techno-elite" approach may lead to the PS3 finding itself with a market share more along the lines of Apple products in a world of PCs.

Or not. Who knows.

Source: GameSpot

This post has been edited by SilverFork on 20th July 2006 06:28

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I personally think that Sony simply have a slow-burner that will last longer. Wii is effectively a very weak console that will push itself to it's limits within a year, Xbox360 is going to find itself obsolete within three years, and PS3 will have a while to establish it's market share.



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"Only the dead have seen the end of their quotes being misattributed to Plato."
-George Santayana

"The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here..."
-Abraham Lincoln, prior to the discovery of Irony.

Looks like this is Nintendo's move, now the wii. can take the lead.

Still 600$ is alot.

This post has been edited by GamblingCat on 19th July 2006 16:18

Nintendo, will need to keep making traditional controller style games to keep the old market happy, Wii does have the potential to overtake, especially for people like me who have snes cartidges, but my mom gave my snes to the goodwill, all it'll take for either Xbox 360 or nintendo Wii to overtake sony is 3 good games a year, for the first two years after PS3's release. And by good games I mean close to Ocarina of Time level of fun type of games. If they want to stomp sony out now is there chance, PS3 could easily end up like the Dreamcast. All it takes is a few good games.

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"Have you ever seen a baby do that before?"

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...the PS3 is more comparable to a computer than a traditional gaming machine

Can't say I didn't expect this. People have computers to do what computers are supposed to do. People buy consoles to play games. It seems like common sense to me.

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Everything I've heard about the PS3 for a good long while has been nothing but depressing. What can Sony possibly be thinking by turning their next-gen machine into a crazy mess of features that most people don't need and can't afford?

I don't know whether or not I'll be getting a PS3. All of the titles that I'm looking forward to are PS3 games, but if the console gets sucked into the vacuum created by Sony's burgeoning corporate ego, I could see it going the way of the Dreamcast. Announced titles will just never appear, and software publishers will go elsewhere.

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Veni, vidi, dormivi.

The PS3 isn't going to replace very many PC's in very many households. I think the pricetag is going to bite Sony in the arse.

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Is there any particular reason why we should care what DFC Intelligence predicts? Industry forecasting must be one of the most choatic of statistical disciplines, second to at least weather and economics.

Their website doesn't seem to offer much. Apparently they sell massive briefs of analysis at about 10 dollars a page. Either that, or save big with custom research subscriptions for just $3000 USD a year!
Fantastic! Sign me up now.

And it's not as if this is the first time they've called Sony on their astronomical pricing. And at this point, does it really matter what analysts say? Sony's not going to change their tune now.

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If I were head of Sony I'd have had them build the full specrtum PS3 as well as a stripped down system purely for gaming... Not a bad idea I'd say.

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Do you think we're forever?

I think they should have left the blu-ray part out to help lower the cost. Aah, but anyway, the fact that the PS3 is backwards compatable and region free (meaning I can play Japanese or Euro games) makes the price tag worth it to me right there.

Not me. I see nothing that the PS# is offering that I actually want that I couldn't get from the 360. Even the FF franchise has lost it's hold on me so much that I won't keep console loyalty just for the sake of their games.

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Join the Army, see the world, meet interesting people - and kill them.

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Quote (Zeromus_X @ 19th July 2006 13:58)

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...the PS3 is more comparable to a computer than a traditional gaming machine

Can't say I didn't expect this. People have computers to do what computers are supposed to do. People buy consoles to play games. It seems like common sense to me.

I was thinking the same thing. They touted the DVD-player function when the PS2 released in 2000 -- I bought mine on day 1, and I've yet to watch a DVD on it (well, 5 minutes to say "Yep, that's a DVD player"). I thought $300 was steep but justifiable, no way I'm spending double that -- I'd make massive upgrades to my PC first.

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Maybe I'm a fool, I don't know but I still have faith in Sony and will eventually get a PS3. Probably not the day it comes out but I will get one. I'm also kind of ok with the idea of it being kind of a computer. A computer that plays like a console machine? I'm so there. I never play games on my computer because it's an uncomfortable sitting situtation and I stare at a computer all day.

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Elena Indurain

Currently Playing: Suikoden II

What I think is that Sony wants to develop technology at an unbelievable speed. Of course, their research costs were so high that it will take much more than 600$ per console to result in any profits. At least the gaming industry is adapting to that higher technology. Let's face it, yes, it costs a lot, but in a few years we may be able to do great things because people paid for researches like this. I have yet to play any game where you move your body and not smash buttons on a controller.

But I wonder how much time it will take for Sony to recover from that hit. I mean, they won't get 3 on 4 families to buy a PS3.
Well, if people want one, they'll get the money for it.

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Sayonara

Quote (Elena1999 @ 20th July 2006 00:12)

A computer that plays like a console machine? I'm so there. I never play games on my computer because it's an uncomfortable sitting situtation and I stare at a computer all day.

The problem with that is that it's also a console machine that plays like a computer.

I'm with you on it being more comfortable to play from your couch with a controller than at your desk with a keyboard, but I'm extremely wary of the other changes this will mean. Computer games are so incredibly unstable. Hopefully, the fact that the PS3 hardware will be standardized will alleviate this problem. But computer game designers also feel like they don't need to put out a completed product--why should they, when they can just patch it later? They wait for the fan community to figure out what all the problems and bugs are, and then they fix them if they feel like it. I'm not looking forward to buggy, glitchy games that are left that way because they know they can put out a patch.

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Good point, Kara. I hadn't thought of that.

Still, one would think that with the huge gamble that Sony is taking with their price, that they wouldn't compund the mistake by putting out sloppy games with the nonchalant attitude of "we'll patch it later". They couldn't be THAT stupid, could they?

Could they?

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Join the Army, see the world, meet interesting people - and kill them.

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Quote (karasuman @ 20th July 2006 16:30)

But computer game designers also feel like they don't need to put out a completed product--why should they, when they can just patch it later? They wait for the fan community to figure out what all the problems and bugs are, and then they fix them if they feel like it. I'm not looking forward to buggy, glitchy games that are left that way because they know they can put out a patch.

I don't think this is quite as true any more as it used to be. Since very, very few games are now made for the PC only, they share immense QA times with the console releases (look how long both versions of Oblivion were delayed for supposedly this reason). With consoles now equipping hard disks as standard, patching has become possible on console platforms as well - and you can blame/thank Microsoft as appropriate for that one more than Sony IMO.

On the other hand, when bugs are eventually found in release products (and they inevitably are for both consoles and PCs), some publishers/developers don't seem remotely inclined to patch them. Once it's out, it's out; patches don't make money.

Personally I think this is one of the reasons PC gaming is dying out, although a minor one in the grand scheme of things: when you bought a PC game in the good old days, you could almost guarantee that it'd be updated and improved, often beyond mere bugfixes: rebalancing, AI improvements and even new content were often on the table (look at UT2004 for a modern example of this). Nowadays it doesn't happen much. Compare the free plugins and multiple patches Bethesda offered for PC Morrowind players to Oblivion's paid expansions and, thus far, just the one patch, after which I still find the game to crash, sometimes during saving (so yes, the PC version probably is still more unstable, but as you say, that's often down to the mess of hardware and driver support required behind the scenes which becomes a non-issue on guaranteed identical hardware).

These fifth-generation consoles are not looking very good.

The PS3 has an insane price tag.

The Revolution Wii is named after a stinky bodily fluid.

The X-Box 360 is made by Microsoft.

And Sega isn't playing anymore.

*goes back to his SNES and GBA*

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Sony is digging their own grave. First they announce that the system is gonna cost $600. Then they exclaim that you can play ridge racer on it (i think he was on some sort of drugs). Then...and here's the kicker...the games are going to be.....drumroll......60 to 100 bucks!!!! TADA! yes. its true i read it on www.ps3land.com (i haope that comes up a hyperlink) 100 dollars for a video game. but sadly. im buying one. i have no idea why

Edit

RAGHH! i suck at hyperlinks!!!!

*sigh* but i am

This post has been edited by dont chocobos rule? on 21st July 2006 04:10

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Aujourdhui a commence avec toi.

Quote (dont chocobos rule? @ 20th July 2006 21:09)

Sony is digging their own grave. First they announce that the system is gonna cost $600. Then they exclaim that you can play ridge racer on it (i think he was on some sort of drugs). Then...and here's the kicker...the games are going to be.....drumroll......60 to 100 bucks!!!! TADA! yes. its true i read it on www.ps3land.com (i haope that comes up a hyperlink) 100 dollars for a video game. but sadly. im buying one. i have no idea why

Edit

RAGHH! i suck at hyperlinks!!!!

*sigh* but i am

You misrepresented that article a bit. It mentioned the possibility and even the writer has tried to state it more as fact than what it actually is: unlikely speculation. So I wouldn't freak out yet. Also note that most Xbox 360 games are in the $60 range and must I remind everyone that's how much a lot of N64 games cost if not more. That's how much even NES games used to cost depending on the game.

Honestly I think everyone's getting worried about nothing. Is it insanely expensive. Yes but so have all past systems been on their launch and what has history taught us, even though technology is more expensive, it turns the tide and becomes less expensive as it becomes more commonplace. DVD players used to be insanely expensive. Now I can get a semi-decent one for $30 at Target.

As much of a supporter of Sony as I am, I do have to say one thing, if you don't know why you are buying a PS3, then by all means don't buy one. $600 is a lot to spend on something you don't know why you're going to buy.

Why am I going to buy a PS3? Part of it is brand loyalty and being somewhat of a Sony whore. But also because they have served me well in my gaming. They saved me when I became disillusioned with Nintendo for not supporting my favorite genre and for cancelling Earthbound 64. They also have Square and I'm a proud Square whore as well. But not without reason. Sony and Square have served my gaming needs well.

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Elena Indurain

Currently Playing: Suikoden II

Pricey yes, but still IMO better than the 360, i hear they're launching with wide range games and altogether have better attributes than the 360. The 360 has been out for quite a while and still have not shown many games.

Blue ray hasn't exactly hit the market so when it does become more popular sony won't have much catching up to do.

The pc similarities i think is good news for grafics bad news for the market, almost everyone has atleast one pc they don't need anymore attached to thear console.

Thats all i have to say.

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Quote (Elena1999 @ 21st July 2006 00:41)

You misrepresented that article a bit. It mentioned the possibility and even the writer has tried to state it more as fact than what it actually is: unlikely speculation. So I wouldn't freak out yet. Also note that most Xbox 360 games are in the $60 range and must I remind everyone that's how much a lot of N64 games cost if not more. That's how much even NES games used to cost depending on the game.

true. but a possibility is always a chance in it happening, eh? and the reason i dont know why is because, while yes i do want one for the games, everyone i know is telling me every reason i shouldnt i why i should buy the excuse-of-a-system that is the three-sucksty (yeah i said it). but, im still buying. i also am pretty loyal to Sony

This post has been edited by dont chocobos rule? on 21st July 2006 19:42

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Aujourdhui a commence avec toi.

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Dont chocobos rule? wrote:  everyone i know is telling me every reason i shouldnt i why i should buy the excuse-of-a-system that is the three-sucksty (yeah i said it). but, im still buying. i also am pretty loyal to Sony

I laugh at "brand loyalty" when the brand in question is asking me to be loyal to the tune of 600 dollars. Sounds like you're more loyal to them than they are being to you, mate.

This post has been edited by Hamedo on 21st July 2006 21:51

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Quote (Glenn Magus Harvey @ 20th July 2006 21:12)

These fifth-generation consoles are not looking very good.

The PS3 has an insane price tag.

The Revolution Wii is named after a stinky bodily fluid.

The X-Box 360 is made by Microsoft.

And Sega isn't playing anymore.

*goes back to his SNES and GBA*

So, the Wii is bad solely based on the name? Are the games a non-issue or something? Likewise, the 360 is horrible just since it's Microsoft? Your only real legit complaint is toward the PS3.

From what I hear about the PS3 and its Blu-Ray technology...

I hear that ALL PS3's, due to the Blu-Ray, are going to "etch" their serial numbers into every disk that is "virgin" into the PS3 and you won't be able to play said disk on your buddy's PS3. That also rules out going to Blockbuster to rent a game.

Quote

I hear that ALL PS3's, due to the Blu-Ray, are going to "etch" their serial numbers into every disk that is "virgin" into the PS3 and you won't be able to play said disk on your buddy's PS3. That also rules out going to Blockbuster to rent a game.

I highly doubt that. That doesn't even make sense, marketing-wise.

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Quote (Zeromus_X @ 24th July 2006 09:53)

Quote

I hear that ALL PS3's, due to the Blu-Ray, are going to "etch" their serial numbers into every disk that is "virgin" into the PS3 and you won't be able to play said disk on your buddy's PS3. That also rules out going to Blockbuster to rent a game.

I highly doubt that. That doesn't even make sense, marketing-wise.

I'm pretty sure it also violates a huge number of laws, both national and international, in practically every country in the world they're going to sell.

Beyond that, it's a stupid plan for a multiude of reasons. How can you test a copy isn't broken in the shop before you play it? What if your PS3 catches fire and you need a new one? What's the point?

No, that just sounds like a 'Revive Aeris' to me. A sack of crap that was invented by some guy, possibly even gal, sitting in a dark room looking at hentai.

This post has been edited by Del S on 24th July 2006 09:24

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"Only the dead have seen the end of their quotes being misattributed to Plato."
-George Santayana

"The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here..."
-Abraham Lincoln, prior to the discovery of Irony.

Quote (Del S @ 24th July 2006 04:24)

Quote (Zeromus_X @ 24th July 2006 09:53)

Quote

I hear that ALL PS3's, due to the Blu-Ray, are going to "etch" their serial numbers into every disk that is "virgin" into the PS3 and you won't be able to play said disk on your buddy's PS3. That also rules out going to Blockbuster to rent a game.

I highly doubt that. That doesn't even make sense, marketing-wise.

I'm pretty sure it also violates a huge number of laws, both national and international, in practically every country in the world they're going to sell.

Beyond that, it's a stupid plan for a multiude of reasons. How can you test a copy isn't broken in the shop before you play it? What if your PS3 catches fire and you need a new one? What's the point?

No, that just sounds like a 'Revive Aeris' to me. A sack of crap that was invented by some guy, possibly even gal, sitting in a dark room looking at hentai.

What laws could that possibly violate, Del? If a company wants to make their console in such a way, they certainly can. You don't have a "right" to play rented or borrowed games on a system.

As for it just being a sack of crap rumor, well...... it is a rumor, but it might be a bit more founded in truth than you think.

At least, Gamespot seems to think so.

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I think it's a definite breach if not in the text of, but at least the spirit of, various laws on your consumer rights. I'm sure there's some way to claim it violates your freedom. Plus there's probably some flaws in the data protection act, plus there's bound to be some consumer laws. In addition, the writing of something to prevent you using it even in another legitimate PS3 could be viewed as mallicious, deliberately preventing you using it in another console meaning you must buy a new copy of every game for every console and bin older ones. I don't think it is illegal per se, but it could open up a whole host of legal issues regarding rights and freedom of information. Perhaps you have no right to a luxury item such as a games console, but you DO have a right to a product that will work correctly for as long as possible, and you also have the right not to get somethig that will function rather like a virus on your game.

It would also severely cripple backwards compatability in the future, and since one of Sony's biggest strengths is that the new console can play the old library, it's shooting themselves in the foot in a way not even Sony could be dumb enough to.

Besides, that very link says it's bogus.

Edit

Oh, and I'm pretty sure the First Amendment can and has been used to prove your right of access toinformation and therefore freedom of information, and this technology potentially has the ability to prevent your access. It's a pretty vague use of freedom of speech, but I think it could hold as an additional complaint alongside others.

This post has been edited by Del S on 25th July 2006 10:20

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"Only the dead have seen the end of their quotes being misattributed to Plato."
-George Santayana

"The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here..."
-Abraham Lincoln, prior to the discovery of Irony.

I do agree with you on the backwards compatibility issue. I don't see how they could make that fly, or why they would even want to. PS2 and PSX games being played on the PS# would seem to me like it would be one of the system's main draws.

I still don't see how any legitimate legal issue could arise out of this, should Sony actually have the balls to go through with it. If you don't like the console's way of branding it's games to your hardrive, you have other consoles to choose from. Buying one that you know doesn't fulfill your needs, then suing?

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Join the Army, see the world, meet interesting people - and kill them.

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