CoN 20th Anniversary: 1997-2017
CoNCAA 2018: Stoke the Embers

Posted: 6th March 2018 16:48

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Been quiet around here. Participate in CoNCAA to help fix that.

I got a bit of a late start this year because I've been oppressively busy recently, and didn't even realize it was properly March until it was definitely properly March. If you follow us on social media, you've probably already seen the link, and if you don't, you're supposed to be, dammit.

Here's this year's link: http://narshe.me/CoNCAA2018

The best time to make picks is between the evening on March 11 and early morning on March 15, so plan on doing it then. If you sign up ASAP, I'll remind you via email, social media posts, and in this thread.

We want people to play even if they don't care about sports. So spare me your posts about "what game is this? Does it have a ball?" it doesn't matter. The fun is in the guessing. Our provider, ESPN, will let you create an account with social media, and it will help you make picks any time you want, so you can put in as much or as little work as you feel like. If you run into problems, feel free to ask questions in here or in chat.

Signup info if you need it after the link above:
Group Name: CoNCAA
Group Number: 310266
Password: flanitor

You can make automatic picks any time, though they will be boring picks. So you can sign up now, click a button, and forget about it if you want. Or you can click the button and come back later to make "better" picks. We will know what teams are in the bracket on March 11, at around 5pm Eastern time. The games start this year on March 15, probably around Noon Eastern.

Again, the best time to make picks is between the evening on March 11 and early morning on March 15, so plan on doing it then. If you sign up ASAP, I'll remind you via email, social media posts, and in this thread.

Hope to see you playing!

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

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Post #214573
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Posted: 6th March 2018 16:52

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Here is the list of players that I'll try to keep up to date:

  • March Towards Ambivalence - R51
  • Out in the First Round? - Del S
  • Purdue is trash - Neal
  • XenoNCAA - Quad/Xenon
  • Filled out on time! (?) - MeHael
  • CoNtreal Impact - Cefca ed. note: Would have been slightly better as "Impact de CoNtreal," but this is solid effort. wink.gif
  • Tiduwho1 - Tidu-Who
  • shanetessmer - ShaneT12
  • Bracket? Facket. - Olly
  • Future Vacated Wins - Kappa
  • Return of the flak - footbigmike
  • What's this button d - Gabe
  • A load of balls - Stiltzkin
  • Save Kevin Ollie - Sabin
  • The Villanova Bard - Harlequin
  • LOL Maryland 10 - LOL UVA - Super Moogle
  • Randomly Generated - Darkhero
  • That Funky Bracketology - Death_Penalty
  • Kifflom, Clarvid! - Salamando
  • Go RI! (not you, Friars) - Iain
  • Professor Ayton - Gears
  • I dunno what I'm doing - GMH


This post has been edited by Rangers51 on 15th March 2018 11:54

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
Post #214574
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Posted: 11th March 2018 23:52

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Post #214582
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Posted: 12th March 2018 11:53

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Quote (Harlequin @ 11th March 2018 17:52)
I just noticed you made the groups password flanitor. That's lovely  wub.gif

Ha ha, I think it's been that for four years now, and they make it so easy to be lazy and not update it.

Updated player list coming in a few minutes.

Also, the brackets are now open, as the teams included in the tournament were locked in yesterday evening. Be sure to make your picks before Thursday morning; you can edit them freely until the first game starts Thursday, so it's wise to at least make SOME picks right away and then refine them as desired.

This post has been edited by Rangers51 on 12th March 2018 11:58

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

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Post #214584
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Posted: 13th March 2018 03:23

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Purdue is trash

Isaac Haas is trash

Hail trash

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
Post #214589
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Posted: 14th March 2018 15:39

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I used a random number generator to pick the outcome of each game, then set the final score myself. Here goes nothing.
Post #214591
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Posted: 14th March 2018 22:08

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Red Wing Pilot
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Did the thing! Glad to be here : )

Jacob_IP : Go RI! (not you, Friars)

This post has been edited by Iain Peregrine on 14th March 2018 23:15
Post #214594
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Posted: 14th March 2018 22:16

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Quote (Darkhero @ 14th March 2018 15:39)
I used a random number generator to pick the outcome of each game, then set the final score myself. Here goes nothing.

Here's to hoping you win. I was talking to a coworker today who follows NCAA and he says that out of the top teams there's no clear favorite. You have a good shot as any of us smile.gif

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Post #214595
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Posted: 15th March 2018 02:01

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Quote (Iain Peregrine @ 14th March 2018 16:08)
Did the thing! Glad to be here : )

Jacob_IP : Go RI! (not you, Friars)

You know, that's interesting, didn't think about it until you posted - I wonder how often it is that TWO Rhode Island schools get in?

Edit
It's the last night before the games that count. Holy cow, March went fast this year. Make sure you sign up and get your picks in before Noon Eastern tomorrow!


This post has been edited by Rangers51 on 15th March 2018 02:03

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
Post #214596
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Posted: 15th March 2018 10:00

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I think I joined correctly?

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Post #214597
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Posted: 15th March 2018 11:53

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Quote (Glenn Magus Harvey @ 15th March 2018 04:00)
I think I joined correctly?

Looks that way to me. Obviously I can't see if you made your picks correctly until it's too late, because nobody can see what anyone else picked before the lockdown time to prevent cheating. But you're definitely in the list!

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
Post #214598
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Posted: 15th March 2018 14:24

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I, being of sound mind, undeterred by any outside influence (alcoholic or otherwise), have knowingly, and intentionally, selected a 16 seed to defeat a 1 seed.

Crazy? Like a fox!


This post has been edited by Sabin on 15th March 2018 14:28

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Post #214599
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Posted: 16th March 2018 16:38

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I did absolutely no research this year, way too busy. Just click click clicked my bracket picks. The only thing I cared about? My dad's alma mater:

LOYOLA!!!! Let's go Ramblers!!!!






Edit: Much much later:


Sabin....you might have picked the wrong 16 seed. Holy Crap UMBC! Destroy this Virginia scum!!!





Edit to follow CON rules 4ever:


LOL at Virginia! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL, first #1 seed team to lose in the first round in the history of the NCAA to lose! Lolololololololol




One more edit:


LOL at Virginia!!!! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Tidu-who on 17th March 2018 03:35

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The clouds ran away, opened up the sky
And one by one I watched every constellation die
And there I was frozen, standing in my backyard
Face to face, eye to eye, staring at the last star
I should've known, walked all the way home
To find that she wasn't here, I'm still all alone


-Atmosphere "Always Coming Back Home to You"
Post #214609
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Posted: 17th March 2018 06:21

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Of all the 1 seeds to finally be beaten by a 16 seed, the one I picked to win? Really? sad.gif
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Posted: 17th March 2018 12:58

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Pretty good results yesterday. Happy with the outcome of Round 1. I look forward to my eventual inevitable victory.
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Posted: 17th March 2018 18:05

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Quote (Cefca @ 17th March 2018 01:21)
Of all the 1 seeds to finally be beaten by a 16 seed, the one I picked to win? Really? sad.gif

You're not the only one.

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Posted: 17th March 2018 18:45

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Quote (Glenn Magus Harvey @ 17th March 2018 18:05)
Quote (Cefca @ 17th March 2018 01:21)
Of all the 1 seeds to finally be beaten by a 16 seed, the one I picked to win? Really? sad.gif

You're not the only one.

Don't lose hope! I had Villanova to win last year. Even when they went out fairly early I had a decent shot at being top 3 for the competition if the final four had gone a certain way.

I'm happy to be doing fairly well after making my picks at 6:45 am on Thursday morning, ha

This post has been edited by Harlequin on 17th March 2018 18:46

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Post #214621
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Posted: 20th March 2018 01:51

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Hey let's do some CoNalysis, the percentages here won't add up quite exactly to 100 since it includes some ties and isn't very scientific LOL WHO CARES NUMBERS!!!!

~~~~~

There have been six casualties already.

Sally was eliminated due to several unorthodox choices, such as SFA winning the title.
GMH was eliminated along with Virginia and New Mexico State, his final two.
Bobbo was eliminated when MSU and Cincinnati went down, his final two.
Xenon was taken down along with Cincinnati, his champion. Houston and MSU were in his final four as well.
Harlequin lost UNC, Tennessee, and MSU, all in her final four.
Gabe moved along when MSU and Xavier, his final two, were taken down.

Then there are also quite a few people who are BASICALLY done but haven't quite disappeared yet (percentage chance is based solely on an assumed and wildly inaccurate 50/50 shot for each game to finish one way or the other):

Darkhero (0.1%): Darkhero is staying alive due to having Syracuse in the title game. That said, he also needs six of the other seven matchups in the next round to go a certain way, so he is extremely likely to be toast.
Olly and Del (0.2% each): Olly and Del don't get their own sections because they have the exact same brackets. Like, every single pick. They each need Villanova to beat Kansas in the final four, but to lose in the title game, which will be tough if you look at the other side of the bracket.
Shanet (0.3%): Shanet is relying on Michigan and Villanova to each make the final four, and either Clemson or Syracuse needs to come out of their regional over Kansas or Duke. The Syracuse/Clemson winner must then beat Villanova.
Iain (0.5%): Iain needs Villanova to beat Duke in the final four, and then beat pretty much any team in the title game. Really nothing else matters. That doesn't seem too crazy? It's probably not EXACTLY like that, but those two teams are the key.
Tidu (0.6%): Tidu took a huge hit with Xavier going down, but can still win if Villanova loses in the title game. They can't lose to Michigan, Gonzaga, or Nevada either.
Geoffrey (1.2%): Geoffrey is an odd case. There are a lot of situations that keep him alive, but unlikely to win overall. He need Florida State to beat Gonzaga, and Syracuse to beat Duke. Clemson or Syracuse must be in the final four. Villanova, Duke, and Kansas cannot win the title.
Super Moogle (1.2%): Villanova has to be in the title game, and in most cases they need to win. Kansas State must beat Kentucky, and neither Gonzaga nor Michigan can be in the final four.
MeHael (1.8%): MeHael needs either Villanova or WVU to be in the title game on the right side of the bracket, and they have to beat either Duke or Clemson in the final four to get there. The left side of the bracket doesn't matter all that much, but with the exception of WVU, the left side's champion must win the whole thing (unless it is Gonzaga or Michigan)

Then there's people who are still hanging in there, maybe they're not the ultimate frontrunners, but that can change if a couple things go your way:

R51 (3.8%): Josh is fairly open in the next round of games, which helps him stay alive longer. Michigan must beat Texas A&M. The earlier Gonzaga and Purdue go out, the better for him, as neither of those teams can be in the final four if he wants to win.
Gears (6.1%): Texas Tech and Duke are must-win games for him in the next round. Following that, Gonzaga cannot be in the final four and Duke must be in the final four.
Cefca (8.2%): Duke must be in the final four for Cefca to move along. Other than that, pretty much anything can happen! He's in pretty decent shape to continue staying in the run for the title.
Kappa (9.4%): Oddly, there are scenarios for Kappa to be alive with any of the sixteen teams remaining in the final four. Not every combination, but there are no single teams that are taboo. That said, Michigan, Duke, and Kansas cannot be in the title game, which seems like a big ask at this point.

Then the actual frontrunners, people with a double-digit percentage chance to go all the way:

Stiltz (11.1%): Stiltz needs Purdue to beat Texas Tech or else he is out. However, Purdue can't be the champion (nor can Villanova) if Stiltz is to win the entire thing.
Neal (22.1%): Gonzaga, Villanova, and Kansas can't be the champ. If Purdue goes all the way, I win automatically, but surprisingly there are scenarios where I can win the whole thing even if Purdue doesn't. Michigan going far is also a big help.
footbigmike (33.4%): Mike has the benefit of the highest score right now, along with Kansas as his champion. That said, if Purdue or Villanova wins the whole thing, he cannot win, so he needs those teams to go down sooner rather than later. Kansas continuing to advance will really do him well.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
Post #214627
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Posted: 20th March 2018 02:10

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Hey, I got eliminated faster this year! Progress.

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Posted: 20th March 2018 02:39

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Cincinnati done me dirty. GG

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Post #214629
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Posted: 20th March 2018 03:39

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I think this is the first time I've still been in the running this far along!
Post #214631
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Posted: 20th March 2018 16:00

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The fact that I'm hanging my hopes on Michigan after the first weekend makes me ill. The fact that I can cheer even harder for Kansas to lose early makes it better.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
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Posted: 24th March 2018 13:02

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Quote (Neal @ 13th March 2018 04:23)
Purdue is trash

Amen. FU Purdue.

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Posted: 24th March 2018 15:21

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The last eight games were a bloodbath for our little bracket.

Geoffrey is gone because Duke beat Cuse.
Stiltz is gone because Texas Tech beat Purdue.
Del and Olly are gone because the left side of the bracket is chaos.
Kappa is gone because Kentucky and Gonzaga both lost.
Super Moogle is gone because he is behind and his only remaining team is Villanova.
Shanet is gone because Clemson and Cuse both lost.
Cefca is gone because Gonzaga lost and he's behind Gears.
Darkhero is gone because Syracuse lost.

Remaining!
Iain (4/128 possibilities): Iain needs Florida State, Villanova, and Duke to all be in the final four. If this happens and Villanova wins the whole thing, then Iain will win. This is a specific outcome for 5 of the remaining 7 games.

Tidu (6/128 possibilities): Tidu needs Villanova and Kansas to make the final four, then Villanova needs to be in the title game but lose to the left side of the bracket. It doesn't matter if Kansas State or Loyola makes it, but they need to beat Michigan if Michigan makes the final four.

MeHael (6/128 possibilities): MeHael is literally the exact same thing as Tidu, except with Duke instead of Kansas. Just like Tidu, Villanova needs to lose in the title game to not-Michigan.

Neal (8/128 possibilities): Rudely, my hopes now rely on Texas Tech. Also Michigan, but that isn't rude. Michigan and Texas Tech need to make up the title game - nothing else matters.

Josh (16/128 possibilities): Yet another person who needs Villanova in the title game! Unlike the others, Josh can win with a Nova title. The Kansas State / Loyola game doesn't matter to him, but at least one of Michigan/Kansas needs to make it to the final four for him to win. It's better if they both make it.

Gears (44/128 possibilities): Gears has a mostly clear path to the final four, but Duke must beat Kansas for him to win the entire thing. Today's games don't matter too much, but it's still better for Gears if Michigan goes out sooner rather than later - there are four edge cases that all involve Michigan where Gears gets knocked out. Villanova can't make the title game.

Mike (44/128 possibilities): Similar to Gears, today's games don't really matter to Mike, except that just the same, it's better if Michigan loses early as four more edge cases hurt Mike in the long run, all involving Michigan. Kansas must be in the title game, and Villanova cannot be there either.

Possible outcomes based on today's potential winners:
Kansas State/Florida State: Neal eliminated
Kansas State/Michigan: Iain eliminated
Loyola/Florida State: Neal eliminated
Loyola/Michigan: Iain eliminated

Everybody else has a path through today regardless of the games.

--------------------
Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
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Posted: 24th March 2018 15:34

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Awards:
First place in CoNCAA, 2018. Celebrated the CoN 20th Anniversary at the forums. Vital involvement in the Final Fantasy IX section of CoN. First place in the CoN Euro Cup soccer competition, 2016. 
Voted for all the fanart in the CoNvent Calendar 2015. Voted for all the fanart in the CoNvent Calendar 2014. Third place in the CoN World Cup fantasy game for 2014. User has rated 150 fanarts in the CoN galleries. 
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Wait, so I need to cheer for Kansas now? What a turn of events! I hate basketball!

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
Post #214647
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Posted: 24th March 2018 22:03

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Red Wing Pilot
Posts: 507

Joined: 5/12/2002

Awards:
Third place in CoNCAA, 2018. User has rated 25 fanarts in the CoN galleries. Second place in CoNCAA, 2015. Member of more than ten years. 
Member of more than five years. 
I keep thinking of Steve McQueen at the end of The Sand Pebbles: "What happened? What the hell happened!?"
Post #214650
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Posted: 25th March 2018 14:53

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Lucky <3
Posts: 3,260

Joined: 1/1/2001

Awards:
Major involvement in the Final Fantasy IX section of CoN. Third place in the CoN Euro Cup soccer competition, 2016. Winner of CoN World Cup fantasy game for 2014. Major involvement in the Final Fantasy VI section of CoN. 
Participated at the forums for the CoN's 15th birthday! User has rated 500 fanarts in the CoN galleries. User has rated 300 fanarts in the CoN galleries. User has rated 150 fanarts in the CoN galleries. 
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Those two games did indeed eliminate Iain, leaving us with six participants.

Tidu (1/32 possibilities): Tidu needs Villanova and Kansas to win today, then Loyola to beat Villanova in the title game. All five games have to go exactly that way.

MeHael (1/32 possibilities): MeHael needs Villanova and Duke to win today, then Loyola needs to beat Villanova in the title game. All five games have to go exactly that way.

Neal (4/32 possibilities): I need Texas Tech and Michigan to meet in the title game. The winner doesn't matter, so three games have to go exactly my way.

Josh (6/32 possibilities): Villanova needs to beat Texas Tech, but Kansas/Duke no longer matters since Michigan made it to the final four. Nova has to get in the title game, and if it's against Michigan, Josh wins regardless. If it's against Loyola, Villanova needs to win the final.

Gears (10/32 possibilities): Duke has to beat Kansas today, and it's better if Tech beats Villanova. If Duke is in the title game, Gears wins in any situation - his only non-Duke title game is if the title game is Texas Tech vs Loyola, but Duke still has to be in the final four.

Mike (10/32 possibilities): Kansas needs to beat Duke today, and it's better if Tech beats Villanova. If Kansas is in the title game, Mike wins. His only non-Kansas title game win is if the title game is Texas Tech vs Loyola, though Kansas still needs to be in the final four.

Possible outcomes based on today's potential winners:
Villanova/Kansas: MeHael, Neal, Gears eliminated
Villanova/Duke: Tidu, Neal, Mike eliminated
Texas Tech/Kansas: Tidu, MeHael, Josh, Gears eliminated
Texas Tech/Duke: Tidu, MeHael, Josh, Mike eliminated

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
Post #214651
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Posted: 26th March 2018 03:33

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Lucky <3
Posts: 3,260

Joined: 1/1/2001

Awards:
Major involvement in the Final Fantasy IX section of CoN. Third place in the CoN Euro Cup soccer competition, 2016. Winner of CoN World Cup fantasy game for 2014. Major involvement in the Final Fantasy VI section of CoN. 
Participated at the forums for the CoN's 15th birthday! User has rated 500 fanarts in the CoN galleries. User has rated 300 fanarts in the CoN galleries. User has rated 150 fanarts in the CoN galleries. 
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Down to our final three!

Neal was eliminated because Texas Tech lost.
MeHael and Gears were eliminated because Duke lost.

Only eight possible outcomes remain, so let's just break those eight down.

Loyola beats Villanova: Tidu wins.
Villanova beats Loyola: Josh wins.
Villanova beats Michigan: Josh wins.
Michigan beats Villanova: Josh wins.
Kansas beats Loyola: Mike wins.
Kansas beats Michigan: Mike wins.
Loyola beats Kansas: Mike wins.
Michigan beats Kansas: Mike wins.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
Post #214652
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Posted: 26th March 2018 12:06

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Dragoon
Posts: 1,629

Joined: 1/7/2002

Awards:
First place in CoNCAA, 2016. Third place in CoNCAA, 2015. First place in CoNCAA, 2014. Member of more than ten years. 
Third place in CoNCAA, 2012. Member of more than five years. Third place in CoN Fantasy Football, 2004. Third place in CoN Fantasy Football, 2005. 
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You have to like Tidu's chances here. Take me to paradise Sister Jean!

My dad's been ecstatic about Loyola. They have been bad my entire life, so never even had a reason to watch a Loyola game before this tourney.

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The clouds ran away, opened up the sky
And one by one I watched every constellation die
And there I was frozen, standing in my backyard
Face to face, eye to eye, staring at the last star
I should've known, walked all the way home
To find that she wasn't here, I'm still all alone


-Atmosphere "Always Coming Back Home to You"
Post #214653
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Posted: 1st April 2018 04:37

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Lucky <3
Posts: 3,260

Joined: 1/1/2001

Awards:
Major involvement in the Final Fantasy IX section of CoN. Third place in the CoN Euro Cup soccer competition, 2016. Winner of CoN World Cup fantasy game for 2014. Major involvement in the Final Fantasy VI section of CoN. 
Participated at the forums for the CoN's 15th birthday! User has rated 500 fanarts in the CoN galleries. User has rated 300 fanarts in the CoN galleries. User has rated 150 fanarts in the CoN galleries. 
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Bow to Joshua

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
Post #214670
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