CoN 20th Anniversary: 1997-2017
CoNCAA 2017: New Year, Same Peeps?

Posted: 24th March 2017 07:20

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This is the sports ball right, where they dunk on the courts?

...Not that my interests are superior to anyone else's...I have been kind of obsessed with music since an early age.

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Posted: 24th March 2017 12:26

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Quote (Spooniest @ 24th March 2017 01:20)
This is the sports ball right, where they dunk on the courts?

...Not that my interests are superior to anyone else's...I have been kind of obsessed with music since an early age.

No, it's not that sports ball, it's this one:

Quote (Also Spooniest)
This is the one where if you throw the ball into the hoop from behind the big half circle, you get 3 points, and if you're inside the half circle, you get 2 points...

I last was excited for BBall in 1993 when the Bulls came back and won...? Idk. Maybe it was 1992.

I uh...I got into music...and stuff


So... anyway.

I was checking scores while playing XV, because I knew I was too tired to stay up to watch the late games. I think Purdue were up five or seven, and I was irrationally happy. Then I checked the final score this morning. sad.gif

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Posted: 24th March 2017 14:19

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Quote (Iain Peregrine @ 23rd March 2017 19:46)
Neal: Do you think there are different optimal strategies for coming in first vs placing in the top X ranks? I feel like my subconscious heuristics favor top three over an all or nothing gambit for first.

Almost certainly. A bracket that focuses on top picks is going to finish in the top 3 more often than a bracket that takes risks, but if those risks pay off, you'll be able to differentiate yourself from other peoples' popular picks. If somebody had picked all the higher-seeded teams as a bracket, they'd have 540 points right now, which would put them in fourth in this pool. But wouldn't that just be boring?

Last night's games eliminated a LOT of people. Say goodbye to these, Michael:

Neal - gone with my alma mater.
Tidu - Taken out by the combo of Oregon/Xavier winning.
Sally - X gave it to her.
SSJ Cloud - Weirdly, it took all of Oregon/Xavier/Gonzaga winning to take him out.
Del - Left with West Virginia.
Gears - X also gave it to him.
Xenon - Crushed by a bunch of Ducks.

We're down to ten! Kind of! Because some of you are not winning. Updated percentages:

Geoffrey (0.6%)
Iain (2.3%)
Mr. Thou (2.7%)
Bobbo (4.3%)
Harle (4.7%)
Super Moogle (8.6%)
Josh (10.4%)
Stiltz (10.9%)
Leviathan (19.1%)
Gabe (37.5%)

The enemy is still Gabe Kansas.

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Posted: 24th March 2017 20:07

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Early out for me, which is fine considering I was mostly lost during the picking process this year.

Think I'm pulling for UCLA now since they're so exciting to watch... but does that mean I'm also rooting for Josh?? How conflicting...

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Posted: 24th March 2017 20:43

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The enemy is ALWAYS Gabe Kansas

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Posted: 24th March 2017 23:14

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I'm just biding my time Gabe...

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Posted: 25th March 2017 12:36

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Well, last night definitely buried me. That 10% chance going in now has me at 16th place, lol. I don't even care, though, because this is what I watched instead: http://espnfc.com/video/espnfc/video?id=3089024

Also, a begrudging round of applause for Gabe, who is sitting in the global 99.4th percentile after the Sweet 16. Not bad, man.

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Posted: 25th March 2017 12:56

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My strategy of picking whoever I feel like picking (usually based on whose running program I like more) has paid off...so far...

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Posted: 25th March 2017 14:43

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The worst part about my bracket is that all my picks from here on out are identical to Gabe's, with the exception of my Oregon pick replacing his Kansas pick. Also, I'm 90 points behind him right now. That means that even if Oregon pulls off the unlikely upset of Kansas today, I will still be 10 points behind Gabe. That means Oregon has to make it to the championship game for me to beat Gabe. And even then, if the opponent is, say, Gonzaga, and Oregon loses in the championship game, then I will lose to Stiltzkin's Gonzaga pick. I feel like the odds of me winning this thing are so much lower than the "19%" estimate in Neal's post.

If Oregon loses today then none of it matters. Gotta take it one game at a time.
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Posted: 25th March 2017 17:12

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Yeah, the odds are based simply on every game having a 50/50 shot of going in either direction, when in reality we know it isn't true.

Four more have perished in last night's games.
Iain - Went down with UCLA's loss.
Josh - Went down with UCLA's loss.
Geoffrey - Went down with Arizona's loss.
Mr. Thou - Went down with Butler's loss.

So now we are down to eight basketball teams left, giving us 128 possibilities for the remainder of the tournament (in pure binary win/loss mode). Somehow, a tie for first is no longer possible. Soooo

Bobbo (4/128) - Xavier, Oregon, and UNC must all advance to the final four. Oregon must be in the title game but then lose.

Stiltz (12/128) - Gonzaga needs to win the whole thing. Really, nothing else matters much, but Kansas winning over Oregon would be a boost.

Harle (24/128) - Kentucky must be in the title game, and Gonzaga cannot be there with them. Xavier can beat Gonzaga but it's much better for Harle the earlier Gonzaga exits.

Super Moogle (26/128) - SM rides the UNC train - they must be in the title game. They can lose it, but they have to lose it to Florida, Xavier, or South Carolina in order for him to have a chance.

Leviathan (28/128) - It all rides on Oregon. They need to be in the title game, and in most cases they need to win. If it's Oregon vs Gonzaga in the title game, it's over and Leviathan wins it all regardless of the victor.

Gabe (34/128) - Gabe's points lead has him in good shape where even if Kansas loses to Oregon, he has two possibilities where he can still win. Granted, this isn't ideal for him, but it would take Kentucky beating Gonzaga in the title game for that to happen. Otherwise, Gabe is set as long as Kansas is alive.

Looking at the final 8 teams, each one has 16 possibilities of the 128 where they are the winner. Let's look at our bracket champs for each possible basketball champion:

Florida: Gabe 5, Harle 4, LevMist 3, Super Moogle 3, Bobbo 1
South Carolina: Gabe 5, Harle 4, LevMist 3, Super Moogle 3, Bobbo 1
Gonzaga: Stiltz 12, LevMist 4
Xavier: Gabe 4, Harle 4, Super Moogle 4, LevMist 2, Bobbo 2
Kansas: Gabe 16
Oregon: LevMist 16
UNC: Super Moogle 16
Kentucky: Harle 12, Gabe 4

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
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I feel it, it's leaving me
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Posted: 25th March 2017 18:45

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Wait, so, Gongaga can win, and I can still lose!? FML.

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Posted: 25th March 2017 22:09

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Neal this is an awesome breakdown, thanks so much! I'm having a load of fun surprising myself with how far I'm getting, considering 'Nova's early exit. Mostly I'm hoping to get a snazzy badge on my profile.

This post has been edited by Harlequin on 25th March 2017 22:14

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Posted: 26th March 2017 03:03

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Well THAT sure shook things up.

Bobbo was eliminated once Xavier went down.

but nobody else was eliminated!

Gabe (2/32) - Gabe is still alive, despite Gabe Kansas going down. He needs Kentucky to beat Gonzaga in the title game. If anything else happens, he is out. Florida/South Carolina doesn't matter.

Harle (4/32) - Harle is kicking it and will win if Kentucky is in the final 2 against either Florida or South Carolina. Oregon and Gonzaga can't win any more games.

Stiltz (4/32) - Stiltz still needs Gonzaga to win, but they can't beat Oregon. Only the winner of UNC/Kentucky can be his runner up to Gonzaga.

Super Moogle (6/32) - CK wins in any situation where North Carolina wins. He also wins in the two scenarios in which the Florida/South Carolina winner beats UNC in the title game.

and finally...

LeviathanMist (16/32) - A commanding favorite now, LeviathanMist still needs help as Oregon MUST be in the title game. But that's all that's needed, as literally no other game matters. Oregon wins one more game and Mist wins the CoN pool.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
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Posted: 26th March 2017 07:46

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Stupid goddamn ducks. Since when is a duck better than a chocobo!?

C'mon UNCkie 'Tucky...

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Posted: 26th March 2017 14:58

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I flew too close to the sun on wings of pastrami.

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Posted: 28th March 2017 16:46

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Hey, I lasted longer than the last time I played. Still nice to have been the frontrunner for a couple of days happy.gif
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Posted: 2nd April 2017 11:05

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Well, I'm guaranteed 3rd place. Good run guys, though it sucks that I was one point away from winning the whole thing.
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Posted: 5th April 2017 17:29

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Well, that UNC victory means that this year's winner is someone who hasn't posted at the forums in, like, a decade. Enjoy your award, wanker. wink.gif

That first-place trophy was the only thing we didn't know about the podium before going into the final game. As LeviathanMist mentioned on Sunday, third place was already locked down, and Gabe, while in first place going in to the title game, was in fact locked into second with no hope of staying top because both of the people with active champion picks going in were within striking distance of the #1 slot.

So, congrats to this year's podium:

1. Super Moogle
2. Gabe
3. LeviathanMist

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Posted: 5th April 2017 17:38

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Congrats to Moogle and Gabe! I'm very satisfied with third considering I didn't expect to even make the top 10 this year.
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Posted: 5th April 2017 18:15

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Damn, I finish 4th, that's the worst place... well, I could have easily finished last as well, considering my all encompassing knowledge of NCAA basketball.

Still is my all time best in this CoNtest, so hurray, vive la France!

This post has been edited by Mr Thou on 5th April 2017 18:15
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