Quote (Harlequin @ 1st March 2017 15:28)
Give me a couple days but I'm in.
Yep, no hurry as long as everyone has picks in by the first game.
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| Caves of Narshe Forums > General Topics > CoNCAA 2017: New Year, Same Peeps? |
| Posted by: Rangers51 1st March 2017 17:12 |
| http://narshe.me/CoNCAA2017 https://www.cavesofnarshe.com/forums/ipb/in...showtopic=16995 Here's the list as of the morning, March 15:
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| Posted by: Neal 1st March 2017 17:14 |
| Down with Gabe Kansas. |
| Posted by: Rangers51 1st March 2017 17:37 |
| I'm in as "Draymond v. Grayson Plz," too. I'll add the list of everyone later. |
| Posted by: Stiltzkin 1st March 2017 19:45 |
| Done. You'll never guess which one's me. |
| Posted by: Harlequin 1st March 2017 21:28 |
| Give me a couple days but I'm in. |
| Posted by: Rangers51 1st March 2017 22:07 |
Quote (Harlequin @ 1st March 2017 15:28) Give me a couple days but I'm in. Yep, no hurry as long as everyone has picks in by the first game. |
| Posted by: mehael 2nd March 2017 01:29 |
| In, if I can remember to fill out the bracket this time. I told it to email me. |
| Posted by: Rangers51 4th March 2017 14:29 |
Quote (mehael @ 1st March 2017 19:29) In, if I can remember to fill out the bracket this time. I told it to email me. Oh, that's a handy feature, I didn't know they did that. You can also subscribe to this thread, or watch us on Facebook and Twitter, as I'll likely be posting reminders there as well. I just updated the OP with the current list of players. |
| Posted by: Quad 4th March 2017 23:13 |
| I'm in, as M-M-M-M-Madmadmad. I might change that. Edit I did change it: Now I'm "Never Seen An NCAA Game". This is better. |
| Posted by: Spooniest 5th March 2017 05:14 |
| This is the one where if you throw the ball into the hoop from behind the big half circle, you get 3 points, and if you're inside the half circle, you get 2 points... I last was excited for BBall in 1993 when the Bulls came back and won...? Idk. Maybe it was 1992. I uh...I got into music...and stuff |
| Posted by: Death Penalty 6th March 2017 03:11 |
I'm in as Too Bleased to Be Creased (#blessed, #bleased). Looking forward to another year of mediocrity!  |
| Posted by: Tidu-who 6th March 2017 18:27 |
| Tidu always wins. *relaxingly points to medals* He will win again this year. Provided Sabin doesn't show up. |
| Posted by: Sabin 8th March 2017 04:35 |
Quote (Tidu-who @ 6th March 2017 14:27) Tidu always wins. *relaxingly points to medals* He will win again this year. Provided Sabin doesn't show up. *ahem* "...He's... right behind me, isn't he?" *stares unapprovingly* ... You only wish I was that oblivious. Last year was clearly a fluke. Let the reign of Bobbo continue! This year's bracket is entitled "70 Miles From Dunk City", named such as, since my relocation to the Sunshine State, am in fact 70 miles from Dunk City. Recognize it, because it'll be hanging out at the top spot all month. |
| Posted by: Kappa the Imp 9th March 2017 01:47 |
| It's March again, and Maryland's dancing, so what else am I supposed to want in life? Looking forward to the tourney, fellas. |
| Posted by: Rangers51 14th March 2017 17:30 |
| Games start up in a little under two days from the time of this post - sign up and make your picks now! |
| Posted by: Gears 14th March 2017 20:57 |
| Lonzo Ball is Life. Hi all! Hope the last year has treated you well. I have literally not watched a college basketball game this year. Back when this started, I spent approximately 20 hours a week watching college ball. Now I think I might watch almost that much NBA ball (although Breath of the Wild has been cutting into that significantly this week), but college is gone pretty much completely. So what I'm saying is, there's a lot of chalk going on over here. Good luck everyone! |
| Posted by: LeviathanMist 15th March 2017 10:50 |
| My picks are all chalk based on fivethirtyeight's % win projections, and with about 15-20% of them being "upset" picks. All that being after I chose Oregon as my upset champion once again. I don't expect to do very well. |
| Posted by: Rangers51 15th March 2017 13:30 |
Quote (Gears @ 14th March 2017 14:57) Lonzo Ball is Life. Hi all! Hope the last year has treated you well. I have literally not watched a college basketball game this year. Back when this started, I spent approximately 20 hours a week watching college ball. Now I think I might watch almost that much NBA ball (although Breath of the Wild has been cutting into that significantly this week), but college is gone pretty much completely. So what I'm saying is, there's a lot of chalk going on over here. Good luck everyone! Always good to see some Gears at CoN. I'm in the same boat - the last time I podium'd a CoNCAA, I was watching at least four or five games a week, but that was before I started getting ready access to English and American soccer, and that's steamrolled just about all other sports that I watch. I think I watched maybe three Illini games this year, and one Tulane game (so, obviously not tournament teams). I thought I had a nice unique, semi-dark-horse pick set up yesterday until I discovered through chat that Neal currently has the same one. I don't know if that makes me feel better about it or worse. |
| Posted by: Rangers51 16th March 2017 14:45 |
| We made it to 20 players, hooray! Make sure you get your picks in if you haven't, because you are juuuuuuuust about out of time. |
| Posted by: Iain Peregrine 18th March 2017 02:20 |
| Oh god, I just tried to like someone's CoN post. I wish the internet worked like forums again. Hi people! |
| Posted by: Cefca 18th March 2017 19:55 |
Well I'm 30 points up on this point last year so not too bad.  |
| Posted by: Gabe 21st March 2017 16:13 |
| I was just playing when I picked Michigan to win their first two games. Didn't expect a Louisville upset! |
| Posted by: Rangers51 21st March 2017 17:25 |
| I was traveling via car most of the weekend, and while I listened to a lot of games on satellite radio during the trip, I didn't have access to my bracket. It's kind of a disaster, but at least I have a pretty unique champion in my CoN bracket on whom I can hang my hat. My money bracket, though, has about five people with that same champion so I'll be out of the running over there by next weekend, I'm sure. :\ But, as always, Go (home) Duke! |
| Posted by: Neal 23rd March 2017 17:55 |
| #2 Duke also lost in the womens bracket. A Good Year. Hopefully we can take down [Gabe] Kansas, UNC, and Kentucky and get some wackadoo champion in there. Okay how about some CoNalysis. Sorry it's delayed and won't be as thorough as it usually is, but I've been extremely busy since the weekend ended. Keep in mind the percentages won't add up to 100 since this includes tying for the title. ~~~~~~~~~~ Poor Eliminated Saps: MeHael has been eliminated by virtue of not making any picks. Kappa has been eliminated by losing his final two and having his only remaining possible correct picks duplicated by Iain. Cefca has been eliminated by varying by Iain by only one pick going forward, and that one pick isn't enough to make up early-round point differentials. Pretty Much Done: Neal (0.1%) - Purdue, Michigan, UNC, and UCLA are in must-win games today and tomorrow if I am to stay alive. After that, UCLA needs to make the final four and the final two must be exclusively populated by bonko teams like South Carolina or Florida. I am doomed. Tidu (0.3%) - Needs Gonzaga and UNC in the final four, but neither of them is allowed to win the title game if he is to take home the trophy yet again. The winner must come from the Wisconsin/Baylor/South Carolina/Florida region. Sally (1.2%) - How does Sally have a better chance to win than I do after picking all 16s to beat all 1s? By having Arizona and UCLA in the title game, a combo that nobody else chose. Geoffrey (1.3%) - UCLA needs to make it to the final four, but cannot win the title. He can't win unless an unpicked champion wins the whole thing. His elite eight picks don't have a very good chance of eliminating him, oddly. SSJ Cloud (1.6%) - Like many others, he needs an unpicked champion to take the whole thing. He is benefiting from a strong performance in the early rounds, but suffers from losing Villanova, his selection for the champ. Bobbo (2.7%) - Oregon has to make it to the final four, and in most situations needs to advance to the title game. They have to lose though - Bobbo needs an unpicked champion too. Still in the mix: Iain (4.4%) - Doing well with Kansas as his champ, his performance in the earlier rounds don't even necessitate them beating Purdue for his victory. It certainly makes things more difficult if they don't, though. Would benefit largely from UNC in the final four. Stiltz (5.8%) - Gonzaga Gonzaga Gonzaga. Gonzaga must win. Can they win? It looks like Stiltz is still alive so long as Gonzaga hasn't been bounced. Del (6.1%) - West Virginia is his lifeline! Somehow the Mountaineers are still in it, and Del needs them AT LEAST in the title game to win. There are a few situations where Butler can beat WVU and Del still wins, but if WVU exits before then, Del's toast. Gears (6.2%) - Gears definitely needs Arizona in the final four, but is oddly open after that. They also almost have to be in the title game (a couple situations exist where Wisconsin can go instead), but the winner matters less as long as it isn't UCLA. Harlequin (7.7%) - Kentucky has to go to the final 2 - amazingly, she is the only one to pick them making it that far. As her champ was Villanova, she needs an unpicked champion to succeed, but that also includes Kentucky, so it's really just Kentucky all the way. LeviathanMist (8.5%) - Oregon has to be in the title game and basically nothing else matters. If Oregon doesn't win, it needs to be an unpicked champion to avoid being taken over on points. The Hunters: Josh (9.5%) - Josh is the only one to have UCLA winning the title, so that happening would virtually guarantee him a victory. However, they don't even necessarily need to make the final four for Josh to win, as Butler somehow also helps him. UCLA does have to beat Kentucky though. Quad (10.1%) - Michigan is his champ, and he's the only one, so if they continue their cinderella run, he stays alive. There are like 4 random scenarios where they don't have to make the title game, but they at least have to make the final four. Super Moogle (10.5%) - A unique UNC champion pick alongside strong performance in the first two rounds puts SM at an advantage. As long as UNC stays around, he's still around. They absolutely need to make it to the title game, though, since a UNC loss means that Kentucky has advanced, which hurts him against Harle. Gabe (11.7%) - Gabe is strong as the current point leader with a title contender in Kansas. He also has an unusual title-game runner up in Gonzaga, so the two of them really make up a contingent that will be impossible to beat if they go far. Gonzaga cannot win the title, though. Mr. Thou (15.4%) - Mr. Thou is our current leader, but who knows how likely this actually is? He has Purdue beating Gonzaga in the title game, so if one of the two of them loses tonight, he is almost certainly out. But as long as they go strong, Dave will rack up uncontested points and will be tough to stop. If these teams falter, he relies heavily on Butler to pick up points that nobody else can get. |
| Posted by: Stiltzkin 23rd March 2017 20:11 |
| Gah, finally, Neal! Thanks for this - it's my favourite bit of CoNCAA. I'm pleased that I have a better shot than Tidu or Bobbo. I'll almost take that as a win in itself. I'm assuming from the analyses that I'm really running in Gabe's shadow until my mighty Gongaga victory over the Kansas Chocobos in the final? |
| Posted by: Cefca 23rd March 2017 22:53 |
Sometimes I think I'd actually get further by auto filling my bracket.  |
| Posted by: Rangers51 23rd March 2017 22:58 |
| This is the first time I can remember in years where I wasn't nearly out by the end of the first weekend. Let's go low seeds. Except Wisconsin and Michigan. |
| Posted by: Gabe 24th March 2017 01:13 |
| BYE MICHIGAN |
| Posted by: Iain Peregrine 24th March 2017 01:46 |
| Neal: Do you think there are different optimal strategies for coming in first vs placing in the top X ranks? I feel like my subconscious heuristics favor top three over an all or nothing gambit for first. |
| Posted by: Quad 24th March 2017 01:55 |
Quote (Gabe @ 23rd March 2017 20:13) BYE MICHIGAN Thanks Gabe GG guys  |
| Posted by: Spooniest 24th March 2017 07:20 |
| This is the sports ball right, where they dunk on the courts? ...Not that my interests are superior to anyone else's...I have been kind of obsessed with music since an early age. |
| Posted by: Rangers51 24th March 2017 12:26 |
Quote (Spooniest @ 24th March 2017 01:20) This is the sports ball right, where they dunk on the courts? ...Not that my interests are superior to anyone else's...I have been kind of obsessed with music since an early age. No, it's not that sports ball, it's this one: Quote (Also Spooniest) This is the one where if you throw the ball into the hoop from behind the big half circle, you get 3 points, and if you're inside the half circle, you get 2 points... I last was excited for BBall in 1993 when the Bulls came back and won...? Idk. Maybe it was 1992. I uh...I got into music...and stuff So... anyway. I was checking scores while playing XV, because I knew I was too tired to stay up to watch the late games. I think Purdue were up five or seven, and I was irrationally happy. Then I checked the final score this morning. |
| Posted by: Neal 24th March 2017 14:19 |
Quote (Iain Peregrine @ 23rd March 2017 19:46) Neal: Do you think there are different optimal strategies for coming in first vs placing in the top X ranks? I feel like my subconscious heuristics favor top three over an all or nothing gambit for first. Almost certainly. A bracket that focuses on top picks is going to finish in the top 3 more often than a bracket that takes risks, but if those risks pay off, you'll be able to differentiate yourself from other peoples' popular picks. If somebody had picked all the higher-seeded teams as a bracket, they'd have 540 points right now, which would put them in fourth in this pool. But wouldn't that just be boring? Last night's games eliminated a LOT of people. Say goodbye to these, Michael: Neal - gone with my alma mater. Tidu - Taken out by the combo of Oregon/Xavier winning. Sally - X gave it to her. SSJ Cloud - Weirdly, it took all of Oregon/Xavier/Gonzaga winning to take him out. Del - Left with West Virginia. Gears - X also gave it to him. Xenon - Crushed by a bunch of Ducks. We're down to ten! Kind of! Because some of you are not winning. Updated percentages: Geoffrey (0.6%) Iain (2.3%) Mr. Thou (2.7%) Bobbo (4.3%) Harle (4.7%) Super Moogle (8.6%) Josh (10.4%) Stiltz (10.9%) Leviathan (19.1%) Gabe (37.5%) The enemy is still Gabe Kansas. |
| Posted by: Kappa the Imp 24th March 2017 20:07 |
| Early out for me, which is fine considering I was mostly lost during the picking process this year. Think I'm pulling for UCLA now since they're so exciting to watch... but does that mean I'm also rooting for Josh?? How conflicting... |
| Posted by: Gabe 24th March 2017 20:43 |
| The enemy is ALWAYS Gabe Kansas |
| Posted by: Stiltzkin 24th March 2017 23:14 |
| I'm just biding my time Gabe... |
| Posted by: Rangers51 25th March 2017 12:36 |
| Well, last night definitely buried me. That 10% chance going in now has me at 16th place, lol. I don't even care, though, because this is what I watched instead: http://espnfc.com/video/espnfc/video?id=3089024 Also, a begrudging round of applause for Gabe, who is sitting in the global 99.4th percentile after the Sweet 16. Not bad, man. |
| Posted by: Harlequin 25th March 2017 12:56 |
| My strategy of picking whoever I feel like picking (usually based on whose running program I like more) has paid off...so far... |
| Posted by: LeviathanMist 25th March 2017 14:43 |
| The worst part about my bracket is that all my picks from here on out are identical to Gabe's, with the exception of my Oregon pick replacing his Kansas pick. Also, I'm 90 points behind him right now. That means that even if Oregon pulls off the unlikely upset of Kansas today, I will still be 10 points behind Gabe. That means Oregon has to make it to the championship game for me to beat Gabe. And even then, if the opponent is, say, Gonzaga, and Oregon loses in the championship game, then I will lose to Stiltzkin's Gonzaga pick. I feel like the odds of me winning this thing are so much lower than the "19%" estimate in Neal's post. If Oregon loses today then none of it matters. Gotta take it one game at a time. |
| Posted by: Neal 25th March 2017 17:12 |
| Yeah, the odds are based simply on every game having a 50/50 shot of going in either direction, when in reality we know it isn't true. Four more have perished in last night's games. Iain - Went down with UCLA's loss. Josh - Went down with UCLA's loss. Geoffrey - Went down with Arizona's loss. Mr. Thou - Went down with Butler's loss. So now we are down to eight basketball teams left, giving us 128 possibilities for the remainder of the tournament (in pure binary win/loss mode). Somehow, a tie for first is no longer possible. Soooo Bobbo (4/128) - Xavier, Oregon, and UNC must all advance to the final four. Oregon must be in the title game but then lose. Stiltz (12/128) - Gonzaga needs to win the whole thing. Really, nothing else matters much, but Kansas winning over Oregon would be a boost. Harle (24/128) - Kentucky must be in the title game, and Gonzaga cannot be there with them. Xavier can beat Gonzaga but it's much better for Harle the earlier Gonzaga exits. Super Moogle (26/128) - SM rides the UNC train - they must be in the title game. They can lose it, but they have to lose it to Florida, Xavier, or South Carolina in order for him to have a chance. Leviathan (28/128) - It all rides on Oregon. They need to be in the title game, and in most cases they need to win. If it's Oregon vs Gonzaga in the title game, it's over and Leviathan wins it all regardless of the victor. Gabe (34/128) - Gabe's points lead has him in good shape where even if Kansas loses to Oregon, he has two possibilities where he can still win. Granted, this isn't ideal for him, but it would take Kentucky beating Gonzaga in the title game for that to happen. Otherwise, Gabe is set as long as Kansas is alive. Looking at the final 8 teams, each one has 16 possibilities of the 128 where they are the winner. Let's look at our bracket champs for each possible basketball champion: Florida: Gabe 5, Harle 4, LevMist 3, Super Moogle 3, Bobbo 1 South Carolina: Gabe 5, Harle 4, LevMist 3, Super Moogle 3, Bobbo 1 Gonzaga: Stiltz 12, LevMist 4 Xavier: Gabe 4, Harle 4, Super Moogle 4, LevMist 2, Bobbo 2 Kansas: Gabe 16 Oregon: LevMist 16 UNC: Super Moogle 16 Kentucky: Harle 12, Gabe 4 |
| Posted by: Stiltzkin 25th March 2017 18:45 |
| Wait, so, Gongaga can win, and I can still lose!? FML. |
| Posted by: Harlequin 25th March 2017 22:09 |
| Neal this is an awesome breakdown, thanks so much! I'm having a load of fun surprising myself with how far I'm getting, considering 'Nova's early exit. Mostly I'm hoping to get a snazzy badge on my profile. |
| Posted by: Neal 26th March 2017 03:03 |
| Well THAT sure shook things up. Bobbo was eliminated once Xavier went down. but nobody else was eliminated! Gabe (2/32) - Gabe is still alive, despite Gabe Kansas going down. He needs Kentucky to beat Gonzaga in the title game. If anything else happens, he is out. Florida/South Carolina doesn't matter. Harle (4/32) - Harle is kicking it and will win if Kentucky is in the final 2 against either Florida or South Carolina. Oregon and Gonzaga can't win any more games. Stiltz (4/32) - Stiltz still needs Gonzaga to win, but they can't beat Oregon. Only the winner of UNC/Kentucky can be his runner up to Gonzaga. Super Moogle (6/32) - CK wins in any situation where North Carolina wins. He also wins in the two scenarios in which the Florida/South Carolina winner beats UNC in the title game. and finally... LeviathanMist (16/32) - A commanding favorite now, LeviathanMist still needs help as Oregon MUST be in the title game. But that's all that's needed, as literally no other game matters. Oregon wins one more game and Mist wins the CoN pool. |
| Posted by: Stiltzkin 26th March 2017 07:46 |
| Stupid goddamn ducks. Since when is a duck better than a chocobo!? C'mon UNCkie 'Tucky... |
| Posted by: Gabe 26th March 2017 14:58 |
| I flew too close to the sun on wings of pastrami. |
| Posted by: Mr Thou 28th March 2017 16:46 |
Hey, I lasted longer than the last time I played. Still nice to have been the frontrunner for a couple of days  |
| Posted by: LeviathanMist 2nd April 2017 11:05 |
| Well, I'm guaranteed 3rd place. Good run guys, though it sucks that I was one point away from winning the whole thing. |
| Posted by: Rangers51 5th April 2017 17:29 |
Well, that UNC victory means that this year's winner is someone who hasn't posted at the forums in, like, a decade. Enjoy your award, wanker.  That first-place trophy was the only thing we didn't know about the podium before going into the final game. As LeviathanMist mentioned on Sunday, third place was already locked down, and Gabe, while in first place going in to the title game, was in fact locked into second with no hope of staying top because both of the people with active champion picks going in were within striking distance of the #1 slot. So, congrats to this year's podium: 1. Super Moogle 2. Gabe 3. LeviathanMist |
| Posted by: LeviathanMist 5th April 2017 17:38 |
| Congrats to Moogle and Gabe! I'm very satisfied with third considering I didn't expect to even make the top 10 this year. |
| Posted by: Mr Thou 5th April 2017 18:15 |
| Damn, I finish 4th, that's the worst place... well, I could have easily finished last as well, considering my all encompassing knowledge of NCAA basketball. Still is my all time best in this CoNtest, so hurray, vive la France! |