CoNCAA 2017: New Year, Same Peeps?

Posted: 1st March 2017 17:12

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http://narshe.me/CoNCAA2017

Look, I know that if you haven't done this in the past, you probably won't this time. Not gonna try to sell you on it too hard. But it CAN be fun, so at least consider it, eh?

I also won't get long-winded about how it works. If you don't get part of it, post in here or ask me (or chat) directly. We've been doing it for fifteen years. Picks can be made starting in the evening of March 12, and all picks must be made before Noon Eastern time on March 16. You can even pre-pick this year without knowing the teams, but know that you're not likely to win if you do and then don't go edit them later. smile.gif

Signup info if you need it after the link above:
Group Name: CoNCAA
Group Number: 310266
Password: flanitor

A couple previous years' worth of info:

https://www.cavesofnarshe.com/forums/ipb/in...showtopic=17267
https://www.cavesofnarshe.com/forums/ipb/in...showtopic=16995

Here's the list as of the morning, March 15:
  • Ghost of Groce - R51
  • Begin the Boilermaking - Neal
  • GabeKansas Rises - Gabe
  • Zanarkand Abes - Stiltzkin
  • AtletiCoN Madrid - Cefca (my favorite team name so far)
  • My Mist-ake 2 - LeviathanMist
  • Besaid Aurochs - Mehael
  • The Villanova Bard - Harlequin
  • Never Seen An NCAA Game - Quad
  • Tidu's Teabaggers - Tidu
  • ThisYearI'llFillItIn - Del
  • Too Bleased to Be Creased - Death Penalty
  • 70 Miles From Dunk City - Sabin
  • Liberty Fries!!! - Mr_Thou
  • Trimble's Frosted Tips - Kappa the Imp
  • Lonzo Ball is Life - Gears
  • Corn with legs - Salamando
  • BRACKET MCBRACKETFACE - SSJ_Cloud
  • LOL MD 9 - LOL Xavier - Super_Moogle
  • Wait, what? - Iain Peregrine


This post has been edited by Rangers51 on 16th March 2017 14:33

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Posted: 1st March 2017 17:14

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Lucky <3
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Down with Gabe Kansas.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
Post #212339
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Posted: 1st March 2017 17:37

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I'm in as "Draymond v. Grayson Plz," too. I'll add the list of everyone later.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

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Posted: 1st March 2017 19:45

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Done. You'll never guess which one's me.

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We apologise for the inconvenience
Post #212342
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Posted: 1st March 2017 21:28

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Engineer
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Give me a couple days but I'm in.

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And light appears in the shades of dawning
When your eyes can see
Order the pieces, put them back, put them back."

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Post #212344
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Posted: 1st March 2017 22:07

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Quote (Harlequin @ 1st March 2017 15:28)
Give me a couple days but I'm in.

Yep, no hurry as long as everyone has picks in by the first game. smile.gif

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Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
Post #212345
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Posted: 2nd March 2017 01:29

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In, if I can remember to fill out the bracket this time. I told it to email me.

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Post #212346
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Posted: 4th March 2017 14:29

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Quote (mehael @ 1st March 2017 19:29)
In, if I can remember to fill out the bracket this time. I told it to email me.

Oh, that's a handy feature, I didn't know they did that. You can also subscribe to this thread, or watch us on Facebook and Twitter, as I'll likely be posting reminders there as well.

I just updated the OP with the current list of players.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

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Posted: 4th March 2017 23:13

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I'm in, as M-M-M-M-Madmadmad. I might change that.

Edit
I did change it: Now I'm "Never Seen An NCAA Game". This is better.


This post has been edited by Quad on 8th March 2017 00:43

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Posted: 5th March 2017 05:14

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This is the one where if you throw the ball into the hoop from behind the big half circle, you get 3 points, and if you're inside the half circle, you get 2 points...

I last was excited for BBall in 1993 when the Bulls came back and won...? Idk. Maybe it was 1992.

I uh...I got into music...and stuff

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Alfador only likes me.
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Posted: 6th March 2017 03:11

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I'm in as Too Bleased to Be Creased (#blessed, #bleased). Looking forward to another year of mediocrity! flag-red.gif flag-red.gif flag-red.gif

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Post #212365
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Posted: 6th March 2017 18:27

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Tidu always wins. *relaxingly points to medals*

He will win again this year. Provided Sabin doesn't show up.

This post has been edited by Tidu-who on 6th March 2017 18:32

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The clouds ran away, opened up the sky
And one by one I watched every constellation die
And there I was frozen, standing in my backyard
Face to face, eye to eye, staring at the last star
I should've known, walked all the way home
To find that she wasn't here, I'm still all alone


-Atmosphere "Always Coming Back Home to You"
Post #212372
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Posted: 8th March 2017 04:35

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Crusader
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Quote (Tidu-who @ 6th March 2017 14:27)
Tidu always wins. *relaxingly points to medals*

He will win again this year. Provided Sabin doesn't show up.

*ahem*
"...He's... right behind me, isn't he?"
*stares unapprovingly* ... You only wish I was that oblivious.


Last year was clearly a fluke. Let the reign of Bobbo continue!

This year's bracket is entitled "70 Miles From Dunk City", named such as, since my relocation to the Sunshine State, am in fact 70 miles from Dunk City. Recognize it, because it'll be hanging out at the top spot all month.
Post #212377
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Posted: 9th March 2017 01:47

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It's March again, and Maryland's dancing, so what else am I supposed to want in life?

Looking forward to the tourney, fellas.

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...
Post #212381
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Posted: 14th March 2017 17:30

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Games start up in a little under two days from the time of this post - sign up and make your picks now!

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
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Posted: 14th March 2017 20:57

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Lonzo Ball is Life. Hi all! Hope the last year has treated you well.

I have literally not watched a college basketball game this year. Back when this started, I spent approximately 20 hours a week watching college ball. Now I think I might watch almost that much NBA ball (although Breath of the Wild has been cutting into that significantly this week), but college is gone pretty much completely. So what I'm saying is, there's a lot of chalk going on over here. Good luck everyone!

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"Yeah, where I'ma start it at, look I'ma part of that
Downtown Philly where it's realer than a heart attack
It wasn't really that ill until the start of crack
Now it's a body caught every night on the Almanac"

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Posted: 15th March 2017 10:50

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My picks are all chalk based on fivethirtyeight's % win projections, and with about 15-20% of them being "upset" picks. All that being after I chose Oregon as my upset champion once again. I don't expect to do very well.
Post #212419
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Posted: 15th March 2017 13:30

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Quote (Gears @ 14th March 2017 14:57)
Lonzo Ball is Life. Hi all! Hope the last year has treated you well.

I have literally not watched a college basketball game this year. Back when this started, I spent approximately 20 hours a week watching college ball. Now I think I might watch almost that much NBA ball (although Breath of the Wild has been cutting into that significantly this week), but college is gone pretty much completely. So what I'm saying is, there's a lot of chalk going on over here. Good luck everyone!

Always good to see some Gears at CoN. smile.gif

I'm in the same boat - the last time I podium'd a CoNCAA, I was watching at least four or five games a week, but that was before I started getting ready access to English and American soccer, and that's steamrolled just about all other sports that I watch. I think I watched maybe three Illini games this year, and one Tulane game (so, obviously not tournament teams).

I thought I had a nice unique, semi-dark-horse pick set up yesterday until I discovered through chat that Neal currently has the same one. I don't know if that makes me feel better about it or worse.

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Posted: 16th March 2017 14:45

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We made it to 20 players, hooray! Make sure you get your picks in if you haven't, because you are juuuuuuuust about out of time.

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Posted: 18th March 2017 02:20

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Oh god, I just tried to like someone's CoN post. I wish the internet worked like forums again. Hi people!
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Posted: 18th March 2017 19:55

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Well I'm 30 points up on this point last year so not too bad. thumbup.gif
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Posted: 21st March 2017 16:13

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I was just playing when I picked Michigan to win their first two games. Didn't expect a Louisville upset!

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Posted: 21st March 2017 17:25

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I was traveling via car most of the weekend, and while I listened to a lot of games on satellite radio during the trip, I didn't have access to my bracket. It's kind of a disaster, but at least I have a pretty unique champion in my CoN bracket on whom I can hang my hat. My money bracket, though, has about five people with that same champion so I'll be out of the running over there by next weekend, I'm sure. :\

But, as always, Go (home) Duke!

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Posted: 23rd March 2017 17:55

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Lucky <3
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#2 Duke also lost in the womens bracket. A Good Year. Hopefully we can take down [Gabe] Kansas, UNC, and Kentucky and get some wackadoo champion in there.

Okay how about some CoNalysis. Sorry it's delayed and won't be as thorough as it usually is, but I've been extremely busy since the weekend ended. Keep in mind the percentages won't add up to 100 since this includes tying for the title.

~~~~~~~~~~

Poor Eliminated Saps:
MeHael has been eliminated by virtue of not making any picks.
Kappa has been eliminated by losing his final two and having his only remaining possible correct picks duplicated by Iain.
Cefca has been eliminated by varying by Iain by only one pick going forward, and that one pick isn't enough to make up early-round point differentials.

Pretty Much Done:
Neal (0.1%) - Purdue, Michigan, UNC, and UCLA are in must-win games today and tomorrow if I am to stay alive. After that, UCLA needs to make the final four and the final two must be exclusively populated by bonko teams like South Carolina or Florida. I am doomed.

Tidu (0.3%) - Needs Gonzaga and UNC in the final four, but neither of them is allowed to win the title game if he is to take home the trophy yet again. The winner must come from the Wisconsin/Baylor/South Carolina/Florida region.

Sally (1.2%) - How does Sally have a better chance to win than I do after picking all 16s to beat all 1s? By having Arizona and UCLA in the title game, a combo that nobody else chose.

Geoffrey (1.3%) - UCLA needs to make it to the final four, but cannot win the title. He can't win unless an unpicked champion wins the whole thing. His elite eight picks don't have a very good chance of eliminating him, oddly.

SSJ Cloud (1.6%) - Like many others, he needs an unpicked champion to take the whole thing. He is benefiting from a strong performance in the early rounds, but suffers from losing Villanova, his selection for the champ.

Bobbo (2.7%) - Oregon has to make it to the final four, and in most situations needs to advance to the title game. They have to lose though - Bobbo needs an unpicked champion too.

Still in the mix:
Iain (4.4%) - Doing well with Kansas as his champ, his performance in the earlier rounds don't even necessitate them beating Purdue for his victory. It certainly makes things more difficult if they don't, though. Would benefit largely from UNC in the final four.

Stiltz (5.8%) - Gonzaga Gonzaga Gonzaga. Gonzaga must win. Can they win? It looks like Stiltz is still alive so long as Gonzaga hasn't been bounced.

Del (6.1%) - West Virginia is his lifeline! Somehow the Mountaineers are still in it, and Del needs them AT LEAST in the title game to win. There are a few situations where Butler can beat WVU and Del still wins, but if WVU exits before then, Del's toast.

Gears (6.2%) - Gears definitely needs Arizona in the final four, but is oddly open after that. They also almost have to be in the title game (a couple situations exist where Wisconsin can go instead), but the winner matters less as long as it isn't UCLA.

Harlequin (7.7%) - Kentucky has to go to the final 2 - amazingly, she is the only one to pick them making it that far. As her champ was Villanova, she needs an unpicked champion to succeed, but that also includes Kentucky, so it's really just Kentucky all the way.

LeviathanMist (8.5%) - Oregon has to be in the title game and basically nothing else matters. If Oregon doesn't win, it needs to be an unpicked champion to avoid being taken over on points.

The Hunters:
Josh (9.5%) - Josh is the only one to have UCLA winning the title, so that happening would virtually guarantee him a victory. However, they don't even necessarily need to make the final four for Josh to win, as Butler somehow also helps him. UCLA does have to beat Kentucky though.

Quad (10.1%) - Michigan is his champ, and he's the only one, so if they continue their cinderella run, he stays alive. There are like 4 random scenarios where they don't have to make the title game, but they at least have to make the final four.

Super Moogle (10.5%) - A unique UNC champion pick alongside strong performance in the first two rounds puts SM at an advantage. As long as UNC stays around, he's still around. They absolutely need to make it to the title game, though, since a UNC loss means that Kentucky has advanced, which hurts him against Harle.

Gabe (11.7%) - Gabe is strong as the current point leader with a title contender in Kansas. He also has an unusual title-game runner up in Gonzaga, so the two of them really make up a contingent that will be impossible to beat if they go far. Gonzaga cannot win the title, though.

Mr. Thou (15.4%) - Mr. Thou is our current leader, but who knows how likely this actually is? He has Purdue beating Gonzaga in the title game, so if one of the two of them loses tonight, he is almost certainly out. But as long as they go strong, Dave will rack up uncontested points and will be tough to stop. If these teams falter, he relies heavily on Butler to pick up points that nobody else can get.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
Post #212461
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Posted: 23rd March 2017 20:11

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Cactuar
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Gah, finally, Neal!

Thanks for this - it's my favourite bit of CoNCAA. I'm pleased that I have a better shot than Tidu or Bobbo. I'll almost take that as a win in itself. I'm assuming from the analyses that I'm really running in Gabe's shadow until my mighty Gongaga victory over the Kansas Chocobos in the final?

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Posted: 23rd March 2017 22:53

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Magitek Soldier
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Sometimes I think I'd actually get further by auto filling my bracket. laugh.gif
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Posted: 23rd March 2017 22:58

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Totes Adorbs
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This is the first time I can remember in years where I wasn't nearly out by the end of the first weekend. Let's go low seeds. Except Wisconsin and Michigan.

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Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
Post #212464
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Posted: 24th March 2017 01:13

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Chocobo Knight
Posts: 144

Joined: 30/1/2004

Awards:
Member of more than ten years. Participated at the forums for the CoN's 15th birthday! Third place in CoN Fantasy Football, 2010. Second place in CoNCAA, 2010. 
Member of more than five years. Second place in CoNCAA, 2006. Third place in CoNCAA, 2008. First place in CoN Fantasy Football, 2009. 
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BYE MICHIGAN

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And have you found your joy, in this near dead world of ours?
Post #212466
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Posted: 24th March 2017 01:46

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Red Wing Pilot
Posts: 502

Joined: 5/12/2002

Awards:
User has rated 25 fanarts in the CoN galleries. Second place in CoNCAA, 2015. Member of more than ten years. Member of more than five years. 
Neal: Do you think there are different optimal strategies for coming in first vs placing in the top X ranks? I feel like my subconscious heuristics favor top three over an all or nothing gambit for first.
Post #212467
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Posted: 24th March 2017 01:55

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Red Wing Pilot
Posts: 534

Joined: 5/7/2005

Awards:
Contributor to the Final Fantasy IX section of CoN. Member of more than ten years. Member of more than five years. Contributed to the Final Fantasy IV section of CoN. 
Quote (Gabe @ 23rd March 2017 20:13)
BYE MICHIGAN

Thanks Gabe

GG guys sad.gif

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Squenix games completed:

FF4
FF6
FF7
FF Tactics: Advance 2
Chrono Trigger
Dragon Quest 8
Post #212468
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