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Seconded

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We apologise for the inconvenience

Eight people just lost their choice for champion on day two. I was one of them. I am giggling.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Fantastic. At least I'm out early!

It really frees you up to just enjoy watching basketball. If for some reason you're into that.

/me checks the soccer schedule for the weekend

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Quote (Rangers51 @ 18th March 2016 21:13)

/me checks the soccer schedule for the weekend

Yeah, I'll stick with that too.

THERMAL REACTION LE - oh, that was fast.

Edit

On to women's curling.

This post has been edited by Iain Peregrine on 21st March 2016 01:14

Eliminations? In MY ... bracket? It's more likely than you'd think.

Iain was eliminated as one of the scores of MSU champions without other unique picks to carry him to a championship.
SSJ_Cloud was eliminated for having every single remaining pick be the same as Tidu, but with fewer points.
Bobbo (?!?!) was eliminated along with Utah and Xavier, two of his final four (and Utah in the title game).
FinalAlias was eliminated along with MSU as his champ and West Virginia in his final four.
Del and Gears were eliminated when they didn't make picks. OH NO

That leaves a remarkable 15 participants left alive even in the face of 15 games. Some of them (us) have much lower chances than others, though. Let's go for it.

Unlike past years, I actually did account for ties! I'm not going to worry about tiebreakers, so the percentages here reflect the possible scenarios in which you finish in first place over 32,768 possibilities. This will sum to over 100%. I'll include the winning possibilities including and excluding ties.

Quad (Xenon) (19.7%) - 6,442 possibilities (6,242 as sole winner)
Maybe Xenon figured it out this year! He's sitting in first with solid picks so far and a unique champion - Duke. He's also the only person with 7 remaining Elite 8 picks, and the only one with Villanova in the Final Four. If those two both make it far, he is unlikely to be topped.

Kappa (15.9%) - 5,200 possibilities (4,920 as sole winner)
Kappa is in good shape partially on the strength of a solid first two rounds, and also as the only person with Maryland advancing beyond their next game. In fact, he has them winning the whole thing. Maryland now represents points that nobody else can get and that makes him strong.

LeviathanMist (11.1%) - 3,642 possibilities (3,494 as sole winner)
Mist is in good shape also with a unique champion in Oregon. That's the main thing distinguishing her bracket from others - her other picks are fairly chalky and she suffered from the loss of her runner-up, MSU.

EvilEye (10.9%) - 3,580 possibilities (2,868 as sole winner)
EvilEye's claim to fame is Iowa State going to the final game against Kansas. As somebody else remains with Iowa St as the champ, it probably behooves EvilEye to have Iowa State fall juuuust shy of the title.

Laszlow (10.9%) - 3,564 possibilities (3,194 as sole winner)
Another unique champion here! Virginia, which holds a dear spot in Lasz's heart, is Lasz's champion and only one other person has them going as far as the Final Four. Lasz is also in an enviable position with all four Final Four teams alive, along with Xenon and Mooney.

Stiltzkin (9.4%) - 3,074 possibilities (2,926 as sole winner)
Stiltz doesn't have a unique champion - a few other people chose Kansas - but he has Notre Dame (unique) and Oregon (rare) in the final four, which represent his best hopes of advancing far.

Super Moogle (8.2%) - 2,702 possibilities (2,622 as sole winner)
SM has a unique champion in North Carolina, and is one of only three to even have them in the title game despite being a popular one seed. As long as UNC keeps going, he should be around in future rounds.

Tidu (5.0%) - 1,626 possibilities (1,356 as sole winner)
Former champ Tidu is still strumming along, but he represents a shift in possibility where more things need to go right than just the champion. Tidu does the best when Kansas wins the whole thing, UNC goes to the title game, and Oklahoma makes it to the final four.

Baralai (4.0%) - 1,324 possibilities (1,324 as sole winner)
Baralai is still around but his hopes rest mostly with Wisconsin and Texas A&M. Texas A&M is more important - he doesn't have them winning, but he has them in the title game, and nobody else has them going that far. It would also be helpful to him if Wisconsin made it to the elite eight.

Salamando (3.5%) - 1,152 possibilities (922 as sole winner)
Good ol' Sally is relying on Iowa State to make it to the title game and win...and then uncommon winners are helpful, as Duke is her only other living elite eight possibility.

Geoffrey (3.4%) - 1,118 possibilities (1,068 as sole winner)
Geoffrey lost his champion in MSU, but remains alive with uncommon picks like Indiana in the Elite Eight and Texas A&M in the final four. He is very likely to bow out if A&M doesn't make it that far.

R51 (1.4%) - 460 possibilities (272 as sole winner)
Josh is still kicking, but he most likely needs both Kansas and Oklahoma in the final four and for Kansas to lose in the title game to an unpicked champion.

Cefca (0.7%) - 240 possibilities (232 as sole winner)
Cefca is struggling a bit, but he has Oregon in the title game (somewhat uncommon) and Miami in the final four (completely unique)! Stranger things have happened.

Gabe (0.024%) - 8 possibilities (8 as sole winner)
Well. 8 possibilities. Not unfathomable! Well, yes. It cannot be fathomed. Gabe basically needs everything to go right... Kansas, Duke, and UNC in the final four, with either Gonzaga or Syracuse as the fourth. Then Kansas needs to lose to that fourth team in the finals. Can it happen? Gross.

Neal (0.018%) - 6 possibilities (6 as sole winner)
I AM ALIVE AND YOU ARE ALL GOING DOWN just ignore that I need seven of the eight elite eight games to go exactly as I need and two of those don't even get me points.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

GABE KANSAS IS BLASTING OFF AGAIN!

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And have you found your joy, in this near dead world of ours?

If you do something completely randomly for enough time, it will eventually fall in line! It could've taken 30 years I like 7 better.

I'm not gonna win, though

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Squenix games completed:

FFIII
FFIV
FFVI
FFVII
FFIX
FFX
FF Tactics: Advance 2
Chrono Trigger
Dragon Quest 8
Dragon Quest 11
Super Mario RPG

Wait, I actually have any chance whatsoever? I'm actually surprised, haha.

This first analysis really just reflects what an utter disaster this tournament has been so far, and I love it. It's got hilarious upsets! It's got tight games! It's got Northern Iowa executing what is probably the biggest collapse in tournament history! It's like a glorious tornado.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Interesting analysis. I picked the "underdog" it seems, despite picking a 1 seed.

I'll just let you guys keep pretending I'm a girl a little while longer.

Never mind, I lose!

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Squenix games completed:

FFIII
FFIV
FFVI
FFVII
FFIX
FFX
FF Tactics: Advance 2
Chrono Trigger
Dragon Quest 8
Dragon Quest 11
Super Mario RPG

OH NO A BUNCH OF PEOPLE GOT ELIMINATED

Kappa is gone because Maryland died.
R51 is gone because too many favored teams won.
Geoffrey and Baralai are gone cuz A&M lost.
EvilEye and Sally disappeared because Iowa State lost.
Cefca went down due to Miami's loss.
Neal and Gabe lost because they had no shot.

SIX REMAINING PEOPLE OMG

#1: Tidu (35.2%) - Key scenario is Kansas beating UNC. If Oregon goes out sooner, it is better for him.
#2: Mist (23.4%) - Key scenario is Oregon winning the whole thing.
#3: Lasz (18.0%) - Key scenario is Virginia winning the whole thing.
#4: Super Moogle (12.5%) - Key scenario is UNC winning the whole thing.
#5: Stiltzkin (8.6%) - Key scenario is Kansas winning the whole thing over a team that isn't UNC.
#6: Xenon (7.8%) - Villanova needs to go far and also all the one seeds need to lose ASAP, except for Virginia.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me

Hey Neal, what's our update heading into today's games?

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The clouds ran away, opened up the sky
And one by one I watched every constellation die
And there I was frozen, standing in my backyard
Face to face, eye to eye, staring at the last star
I should've known, walked all the way home
To find that she wasn't here, I'm still all alone

-Atmosphere "Always Coming Back Home to You"

Quote (Tidu-who @ 2nd April 2016 10:12)

Hey Neal, what's our update heading into today's games?

UNC wins, Super Moogle. Anyone else, you. Or at least that's how I remember it from earlier in the week when we ran through it in chat.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Let's go Nova! Finish this off!

They have looked incredible this tournament. No reason to think they can't wipe the floor with that Tar Heel scum.

On the UNC front, they better get this one in, because I think we all know it won't exist a year or two from now.

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The clouds ran away, opened up the sky
And one by one I watched every constellation die
And there I was frozen, standing in my backyard
Face to face, eye to eye, staring at the last star
I should've known, walked all the way home
To find that she wasn't here, I'm still all alone

-Atmosphere "Always Coming Back Home to You"

Well, I'm just pleased as punch to announce that among the three guys on the podium this year, they have a whopping six posts among them in the last year. Such is life, I suppose. Congrats to the winners who likely won't really notice they got their awards.

Edit

The next sporting competition would normally be this summer, as there's another big international soccer tournament; IMO it gives people more to actually do and talk about even if they're not big soccer fans, so keep an eye out.

This post has been edited by Rangers51 on 5th April 2016 19:34

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?

Another Euro prediction contest? Enjoyed the world cup one.

Quote (Rangers51 @ 5th April 2016 13:49)

Well, I'm just pleased as punch to announce that among the three guys on the podium this year, they have a whopping six posts among them in the last year. Such is life, I suppose. Congrats to the winners who likely won't really notice they got their awards.

Edit

The next sporting competition would normally be this summer, as there's another big international soccer tournament; IMO it gives people more to actually do and talk about even if they're not big soccer fans, so keep an eye out.

It was a good year, I will definitely make more pit stops when the FF7 remake is released


--------------------

The clouds ran away, opened up the sky
And one by one I watched every constellation die
And there I was frozen, standing in my backyard
Face to face, eye to eye, staring at the last star
I should've known, walked all the way home
To find that she wasn't here, I'm still all alone

-Atmosphere "Always Coming Back Home to You"