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Caves of Narshe Forums > General Topics > CoNCAA 2018: Stoke the Embers

Posted by: Rangers51 6th March 2018 16:48

Been quiet around here. Participate in CoNCAA to help fix that.

I got a bit of a late start this year because I've been oppressively busy recently, and didn't even realize it was properly March until it was definitely properly March. If you follow us on social media, you've probably already seen the link, and if you don't, you're supposed to be, dammit.

Here's this year's link: http://narshe.me/CoNCAA2018

The best time to make picks is between the evening on March 11 and early morning on March 15, so plan on doing it then. If you sign up ASAP, I'll remind you via email, social media posts, and in this thread.

We want people to play even if they don't care about sports. So spare me your posts about "what game is this? Does it have a ball?" it doesn't matter. The fun is in the guessing. Our provider, ESPN, will let you create an account with social media, and it will help you make picks any time you want, so you can put in as much or as little work as you feel like. If you run into problems, feel free to ask questions in here or in chat.

Signup info if you need it after the link above:
Group Name: CoNCAA
Group Number: 310266
Password: flanitor

You can make automatic picks any time, though they will be boring picks. So you can sign up now, click a button, and forget about it if you want. Or you can click the button and come back later to make "better" picks. We will know what teams are in the bracket on March 11, at around 5pm Eastern time. The games start this year on March 15, probably around Noon Eastern.

Again, the best time to make picks is between the evening on March 11 and early morning on March 15, so plan on doing it then. If you sign up ASAP, I'll remind you via email, social media posts, and in this thread.

Hope to see you playing!

Posted by: Rangers51 6th March 2018 16:52

Here is the list of players that I'll try to keep up to date:

March Towards Ambivalence - R51
Out in the First Round? - Del S
Purdue is trash - Neal
XenoNCAA - Quad/Xenon
Filled out on time! (?) - MeHael
CoNtreal Impact - Cefca ed. note: Would have been slightly better as "Impact de CoNtreal," but this is solid effort.
Tiduwho1 - Tidu-Who
shanetessmer - ShaneT12
Bracket? Facket. - Olly
Future Vacated Wins - Kappa
Return of the flak - footbigmike
What's this button d - Gabe
A load of balls - Stiltzkin
Save Kevin Ollie - Sabin
The Villanova Bard - Harlequin
LOL Maryland 10 - LOL UVA - Super Moogle
Randomly Generated - Darkhero
That Funky Bracketology - Death_Penalty
Kifflom, Clarvid! - Salamando
Go RI! (not you, Friars) - Iain
Professor Ayton - Gears
I dunno what I'm doing - GMH

Posted by: Harlequin 11th March 2018 23:52

I just noticed you made the groups password flanitor. That's lovely

Posted by: Rangers51 12th March 2018 11:53

Quote (Harlequin @ 11th March 2018 17:52)

I just noticed you made the groups password flanitor. That's lovely

Ha ha, I think it's been that for four years now, and they make it so easy to be lazy and not update it.

Updated player list coming in a few minutes.

Also, the brackets are now open, as the teams included in the tournament were locked in yesterday evening. Be sure to make your picks before Thursday morning; you can edit them freely until the first game starts Thursday, so it's wise to at least make SOME picks right away and then refine them as desired.

Posted by: Neal 13th March 2018 03:23

Purdue is trash

Isaac Haas is trash

Hail trash

Posted by: Darkhero 14th March 2018 15:39

I used a random number generator to pick the outcome of each game, then set the final score myself. Here goes nothing.

Posted by: Iain Peregrine 14th March 2018 22:08

Did the thing! Glad to be here : )

Jacob_IP : Go RI! (not you, Friars)

Posted by: Harlequin 14th March 2018 22:16

Quote (Darkhero @ 14th March 2018 15:39)

I used a random number generator to pick the outcome of each game, then set the final score myself. Here goes nothing.

Here's to hoping you win. I was talking to a coworker today who follows NCAA and he says that out of the top teams there's no clear favorite. You have a good shot as any of us

Posted by: Rangers51 15th March 2018 02:01

Quote (Iain Peregrine @ 14th March 2018 16:08)

Did the thing! Glad to be here : )

Jacob_IP : Go RI! (not you, Friars)

You know, that's interesting, didn't think about it until you posted - I wonder how often it is that TWO Rhode Island schools get in?

Edit

It's the last night before the games that count. Holy cow, March went fast this year. Make sure you sign up and get your picks in before Noon Eastern tomorrow!

Posted by: Glenn Magus Harvey 15th March 2018 10:00

I think I joined correctly?

Posted by: Rangers51 15th March 2018 11:53

Quote (Glenn Magus Harvey @ 15th March 2018 04:00)

I think I joined correctly?

Looks that way to me. Obviously I can't see if you made your picks correctly until it's too late, because nobody can see what anyone else picked before the lockdown time to prevent cheating. But you're definitely in the list!

Posted by: Sabin 15th March 2018 14:24

I, being of sound mind, undeterred by any outside influence (alcoholic or otherwise), have knowingly, and intentionally, selected a 16 seed to defeat a 1 seed.

Crazy? Like a fox!

Posted by: Tidu-who 16th March 2018 16:38

I did absolutely no research this year, way too busy. Just click click clicked my bracket picks. The only thing I cared about? My dad's alma mater:

LOYOLA!!!! Let's go Ramblers!!!!

Edit: Much much later:

Sabin....you might have picked the wrong 16 seed. Holy Crap UMBC! Destroy this Virginia scum!!!

Edit to follow CON rules 4ever:

LOL at Virginia! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL, first #1 seed team to lose in the first round in the history of the NCAA to lose! Lolololololololol

One more edit:

LOL at Virginia!!!! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Posted by: Cefca 17th March 2018 06:21

Of all the 1 seeds to finally be beaten by a 16 seed, the one I picked to win? Really?

Posted by: footbigmike 17th March 2018 12:58

Pretty good results yesterday. Happy with the outcome of Round 1. I look forward to my ~~eventual~~ inevitable victory.

Posted by: Glenn Magus Harvey 17th March 2018 18:05

Quote (Cefca @ 17th March 2018 01:21)

Of all the 1 seeds to finally be beaten by a 16 seed, the one I picked to win? Really?

You're not the only one.

Posted by: Harlequin 17th March 2018 18:45

Quote (Glenn Magus Harvey @ 17th March 2018 18:05)

Quote (Cefca @ 17th March 2018 01:21)

Of all the 1 seeds to finally be beaten by a 16 seed, the one I picked to win? Really?

You're not the only one.

Don't lose hope! I had Villanova to win last year. Even when they went out fairly early I had a decent shot at being top 3 for the competition if the final four had gone a certain way.

I'm happy to be doing fairly well after making my picks at 6:45 am on Thursday morning, ha

Posted by: Neal 20th March 2018 01:51

Hey let's do some CoNalysis, the percentages here won't add up quite exactly to 100 since it includes some ties and isn't very scientific LOL WHO CARES NUMBERS!!!!

~~~~~

There have been six casualties already.

Sally was eliminated due to several unorthodox choices, such as SFA winning the title.
GMH was eliminated along with Virginia and New Mexico State, his final two.
Bobbo was eliminated when MSU and Cincinnati went down, his final two.
Xenon was taken down along with Cincinnati, his champion. Houston and MSU were in his final four as well.
Harlequin lost UNC, Tennessee, and MSU, all in her final four.
Gabe moved along when MSU and Xavier, his final two, were taken down.

Then there are also quite a few people who are BASICALLY done but haven't quite disappeared yet (percentage chance is based solely on an assumed and wildly inaccurate 50/50 shot for each game to finish one way or the other):

Darkhero (0.1%): Darkhero is staying alive due to having Syracuse in the title game. That said, he also needs six of the other seven matchups in the next round to go a certain way, so he is extremely likely to be toast.
Olly and Del (0.2% each): Olly and Del don't get their own sections because they have the exact same brackets. Like, every single pick. They each need Villanova to beat Kansas in the final four, but to lose in the title game, which will be tough if you look at the other side of the bracket.
Shanet (0.3%): Shanet is relying on Michigan and Villanova to each make the final four, and either Clemson or Syracuse needs to come out of their regional over Kansas or Duke. The Syracuse/Clemson winner must then beat Villanova.
Iain (0.5%): Iain needs Villanova to beat Duke in the final four, and then beat pretty much any team in the title game. Really nothing else matters. That doesn't seem too crazy? It's probably not EXACTLY like that, but those two teams are the key.
Tidu (0.6%): Tidu took a huge hit with Xavier going down, but can still win if Villanova loses in the title game. They can't lose to Michigan, Gonzaga, or Nevada either.
Geoffrey (1.2%): Geoffrey is an odd case. There are a lot of situations that keep him alive, but unlikely to win overall. He need Florida State to beat Gonzaga, and Syracuse to beat Duke. Clemson or Syracuse must be in the final four. Villanova, Duke, and Kansas cannot win the title.
Super Moogle (1.2%): Villanova has to be in the title game, and in most cases they need to win. Kansas State must beat Kentucky, and neither Gonzaga nor Michigan can be in the final four.
MeHael (1.8%): MeHael needs either Villanova or WVU to be in the title game on the right side of the bracket, and they have to beat either Duke or Clemson in the final four to get there. The left side of the bracket doesn't matter all that much, but with the exception of WVU, the left side's champion must win the whole thing (unless it is Gonzaga or Michigan)

Then there's people who are still hanging in there, maybe they're not the ultimate frontrunners, but that can change if a couple things go your way:

R51 (3.8%): Josh is fairly open in the next round of games, which helps him stay alive longer. Michigan must beat Texas A&M. The earlier Gonzaga and Purdue go out, the better for him, as neither of those teams can be in the final four if he wants to win.
Gears (6.1%): Texas Tech and Duke are must-win games for him in the next round. Following that, Gonzaga cannot be in the final four and Duke must be in the final four.
Cefca (8.2%): Duke must be in the final four for Cefca to move along. Other than that, pretty much anything can happen! He's in pretty decent shape to continue staying in the run for the title.
Kappa (9.4%): Oddly, there are scenarios for Kappa to be alive with any of the sixteen teams remaining in the final four. Not every combination, but there are no single teams that are taboo. That said, Michigan, Duke, and Kansas cannot be in the title game, which seems like a big ask at this point.

Then the actual frontrunners, people with a double-digit percentage chance to go all the way:

Stiltz (11.1%): Stiltz needs Purdue to beat Texas Tech or else he is out. However, Purdue can't be the champion (nor can Villanova) if Stiltz is to win the entire thing.
Neal (22.1%): Gonzaga, Villanova, and Kansas can't be the champ. If Purdue goes all the way, I win automatically, but surprisingly there are scenarios where I can win the whole thing even if Purdue doesn't. Michigan going far is also a big help.
footbigmike (33.4%): Mike has the benefit of the highest score right now, along with Kansas as his champion. That said, if Purdue or Villanova wins the whole thing, he cannot win, so he needs those teams to go down sooner rather than later. Kansas continuing to advance will really do him well.

Posted by: Glenn Magus Harvey 20th March 2018 02:10

Hey, I got eliminated faster this year! Progress.

Posted by: Quad 20th March 2018 02:39

Cincinnati done me dirty. GG

Posted by: Cefca 20th March 2018 03:39

I think this is the first time I've still been in the running this far along!

Posted by: Rangers51 20th March 2018 16:00

The fact that I'm hanging my hopes on Michigan after the first weekend makes me ill. The fact that I can cheer even harder for Kansas to lose early makes it better.

Posted by: Stiltzkin 24th March 2018 13:02

Quote (Neal @ 13th March 2018 04:23)

Purdue is trash

Amen. FU Purdue.

Posted by: Neal 24th March 2018 15:21

The last eight games were a bloodbath for our little bracket.

Geoffrey is gone because Duke beat Cuse.
Stiltz is gone because Texas Tech beat Purdue.
Del and Olly are gone because the left side of the bracket is chaos.
Kappa is gone because Kentucky and Gonzaga both lost.
Super Moogle is gone because he is behind and his only remaining team is Villanova.
Shanet is gone because Clemson and Cuse both lost.
Cefca is gone because Gonzaga lost and he's behind Gears.
Darkhero is gone because Syracuse lost.

Remaining!
Iain (4/128 possibilities): Iain needs Florida State, Villanova, and Duke to all be in the final four. If this happens and Villanova wins the whole thing, then Iain will win. This is a specific outcome for 5 of the remaining 7 games.

Tidu (6/128 possibilities): Tidu needs Villanova and Kansas to make the final four, then Villanova needs to be in the title game but lose to the left side of the bracket. It doesn't matter if Kansas State or Loyola makes it, but they need to beat Michigan if Michigan makes the final four.

MeHael (6/128 possibilities): MeHael is literally the exact same thing as Tidu, except with Duke instead of Kansas. Just like Tidu, Villanova needs to lose in the title game to not-Michigan.

Neal (8/128 possibilities): Rudely, my hopes now rely on Texas Tech. Also Michigan, but that isn't rude. Michigan and Texas Tech need to make up the title game - nothing else matters.

Josh (16/128 possibilities): Yet another person who needs Villanova in the title game! Unlike the others, Josh can win with a Nova title. The Kansas State / Loyola game doesn't matter to him, but at least one of Michigan/Kansas needs to make it to the final four for him to win. It's better if they both make it.

Gears (44/128 possibilities): Gears has a mostly clear path to the final four, but Duke must beat Kansas for him to win the entire thing. Today's games don't matter too much, but it's still better for Gears if Michigan goes out sooner rather than later - there are four edge cases that all involve Michigan where Gears gets knocked out. Villanova can't make the title game.

Mike (44/128 possibilities): Similar to Gears, today's games don't really matter to Mike, except that just the same, it's better if Michigan loses early as four more edge cases hurt Mike in the long run, all involving Michigan. Kansas must be in the title game, and Villanova cannot be there either.

Possible outcomes based on today's potential winners:
Kansas State/Florida State: Neal eliminated
Kansas State/Michigan: Iain eliminated
Loyola/Florida State: Neal eliminated
Loyola/Michigan: Iain eliminated

Everybody else has a path through today regardless of the games.

Posted by: Rangers51 24th March 2018 15:34

Wait, so I need to cheer for Kansas now? What a turn of events! I hate basketball!

Posted by: Iain Peregrine 24th March 2018 22:03

I keep thinking of Steve McQueen at the end of The Sand Pebbles: "What happened? What the hell happened!?"

Posted by: Neal 25th March 2018 14:53

Those two games did indeed eliminate Iain, leaving us with six participants.

Tidu (1/32 possibilities): Tidu needs Villanova and Kansas to win today, then Loyola to beat Villanova in the title game. All five games have to go exactly that way.

MeHael (1/32 possibilities): MeHael needs Villanova and Duke to win today, then Loyola needs to beat Villanova in the title game. All five games have to go exactly that way.

Neal (4/32 possibilities): I need Texas Tech and Michigan to meet in the title game. The winner doesn't matter, so three games have to go exactly my way.

Josh (6/32 possibilities): Villanova needs to beat Texas Tech, but Kansas/Duke no longer matters since Michigan made it to the final four. Nova has to get in the title game, and if it's against Michigan, Josh wins regardless. If it's against Loyola, Villanova needs to win the final.

Gears (10/32 possibilities): Duke has to beat Kansas today, and it's better if Tech beats Villanova. If Duke is in the title game, Gears wins in any situation - his only non-Duke title game is if the title game is Texas Tech vs Loyola, but Duke still has to be in the final four.

Mike (10/32 possibilities): Kansas needs to beat Duke today, and it's better if Tech beats Villanova. If Kansas is in the title game, Mike wins. His only non-Kansas title game win is if the title game is Texas Tech vs Loyola, though Kansas still needs to be in the final four.

Possible outcomes based on today's potential winners:
Villanova/Kansas: MeHael, Neal, Gears eliminated
Villanova/Duke: Tidu, Neal, Mike eliminated
Texas Tech/Kansas: Tidu, MeHael, Josh, Gears eliminated
Texas Tech/Duke: Tidu, MeHael, Josh, Mike eliminated

Posted by: Neal 26th March 2018 03:33

Down to our final three!

Neal was eliminated because Texas Tech lost.
MeHael and Gears were eliminated because Duke lost.

Only eight possible outcomes remain, so let's just break those eight down.

Loyola beats Villanova: Tidu wins.
Villanova beats Loyola: Josh wins.
Villanova beats Michigan: Josh wins.
Michigan beats Villanova: Josh wins.
Kansas beats Loyola: Mike wins.
Kansas beats Michigan: Mike wins.
Loyola beats Kansas: Mike wins.
Michigan beats Kansas: Mike wins.

Posted by: Tidu-who 26th March 2018 12:06

You have to like Tidu's chances here. Take me to paradise Sister Jean!

My dad's been ecstatic about Loyola. They have been bad my entire life, so never even had a reason to watch a Loyola game before this tourney.

Posted by: Neal 1st April 2018 04:37

Bow to Joshua

Posted by: footbigmike 1st April 2018 08:09

My fight moneeeeyyyyy....

Posted by: Kappa the Imp 1st April 2018 22:12

Congrats Josh, what a great birthday present for you as you enter the back half of your century here on Earth!

Posted by: Rangers51 2nd April 2018 03:07

Honestly expected Nova to drop the ball last night and let me down; I only watched about half of that game as there was soccer on simultaneously that I wanted to see more, so by the time I tuned in I knew I had nothing to worry about. This is my first win in over ten years, and just my second overall, so I'm pretty happy about it!

What's wild is that if Villanova win again tomorrow, two players will leap up on the podium who currently sit in 10th and a tie for 11th, as every other person between me and those spots took someone who didn't make the final and in most cases didn't even make the Final Four. In fact, a Villanova win would give us a three-way tie for third place and tiebreakers would come into play, which is something that I can't remember seeing at CoN. Could be interesting! For my money, if it comes down to that tiebreaker, I'm liking Iain's chances, as I think Kappa chose too low of a score, and Harlequin was a total homer and took Nova to win 99-0.

Also, kudos to everyone, because I think this might also be the first time we've ever had every single person who signed up also fill out a bracket. That's pretty cool.

Posted by: Rangers51 3rd April 2018 14:16

Looks like I called it - that score last night played into Iain's hands and he was able to nip his way to third place over Kappa and Harlequin on tiebreaker. That makes the podium:

1. ME AHAHAHAHAHA
2. Super Moogle
3. Iain Peregrine

Awards bestowed! Thanks again for everyone playing this year, hope to see some of you lurkers around more in the meantime before next year.