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| Caves of Narshe Forums > General Topics > CoNCAA 2019: Your New Thread for the Month |
| Posted by: Rangers51 11th March 2019 16:18 |
| Been quiet around here. Participate in CoNCAA to help fix that. We started up this year's version a bit ago but I've been gone and couldn't post about it. Check it out now instead. Here's this year's link: http://narshe.me/CoNCAA2019 The best time to make picks is between the evening on March 17 and early morning on March 21, so plan on doing it then. If you sign up ASAP, I'll remind you via email, social media posts, and in this thread. We want people to play even if they don't care about sports. So spare me your posts about "what game is this? Does it have a ball?" it doesn't matter. The fun is in the guessing. Our provider, ESPN, will let you create an account with social media, and it will help you make picks any time you want, so you can put in as much or as little work as you feel like. If you run into problems, feel free to ask questions in here or in chat. Signup info if you need it after the link above: Group Name: CoNCAA Group Number: 310266 Password: flanitor You can make automatic picks any time, though they will be boring picks. So you can sign up now, click a button, and forget about it if you want. Or you can click the button and come back later to make "better" picks. We will know what teams are in the bracket on March 17, at around 5pm Eastern time. The games start this year on March 21, probably around Noon Eastern. Again, the best time to make picks is between the evening on March 17 and early morning on March 21, so plan on doing it then. If you sign up ASAP, I'll remind you via email, social media posts, and in this thread. Hope to see you playing! Most Recent Participant List
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| Posted by: finalalias 13th March 2019 02:41 |
| Well, I don't frequent these forums as much as I would enjoy, but I do try to make it back from the CoNCAA. I'm thinking of trying this tutorial this year: https://www.qwiklabs.com/quests/58 In light of that, my bracket name is "Gau find short cut". |
| Posted by: Harlequin 13th March 2019 23:19 |
| Really hoping this might be the year I finally win a CoN event...but I guess I can't pick 'Nova to win it all if I really want that to happen (It's a Nova nation and we're all just living in it, my dudes ) |
| Posted by: Elena99 15th March 2019 20:35 |
Remember that year I got second place because I chose all the teams based on whether or not I knew someone (online) from that state, and then I got the score all wrong and so Neal won?  I'll try to remember to join in! |
| Posted by: Rangers51 15th March 2019 20:52 |
That was still my favorite year, Elena.  @finalalias - that project looks really fun, I might have to play with that a little too! I say that, of course, but I'm very lazy about such things these days... I'll add the list of current players to the OP momentarily. The brackets will unlock this coming Sunday, and the games start this Thursday, as a reminder! |
| Posted by: Bahamut_Zero 16th March 2019 23:54 |
| I won't be participating, but I just want to say that this is really cool! Good luck to all involved |
| Posted by: LeviathanMist 17th March 2019 14:15 |
| My opportunity has arrived! ...and by opportunity, I mean opportunity to have the worst bracket in the group, because I'm too stubborn to pick anyone but my college to win it all. Hey, I got third place one time picking Oregon, so I'm not complaining. |
| Posted by: Neal 17th March 2019 17:11 |
| IT'S HAPPENING it being purdue's devastating first-round exit to a 13-seeded st. bonaventure |
| Posted by: Tidu-who 18th March 2019 16:47 |
| Just when I think I'm out...they DRAG me back IN! |
| Posted by: Rangers51 18th March 2019 20:01 |
| Pretty good group so far, and I just published reminders to Facebook, Twitter, and Discord. Hopefully we can get to that 20 level as we usually do! It is possible to make picks now, and they can be done between now and Thursday morning, so don't hesitate. |
| Posted by: Elena99 18th March 2019 20:38 |
| Okay, I submitted it! My BF is thinking of entering, too. |
| Posted by: Rangers51 18th March 2019 21:19 |
Quote (Elena99 @ 18th March 2019 14:38) Okay, I submitted it! My BF is thinking of entering, too. Awesome, I assume you are the "Amethyst_Elena" user? If your BF jumps on, let me know who he is too (or get him to sign up at CoN and tell me himself, lol). |
| Posted by: LeviathanMist 19th March 2019 22:11 |
| Right, I have a dilemma. Oregon is my team. I always want my team to win. In fact, the reason I didn't enter last year is because they missed the tournament. This year they're a 12 seed, and their chances of winning it all are roughly equal to my chances of winning the lottery. I have not won a CoNCAA pool yet. So here's my conundrum: Do I stick with Oregon, knowing full well I will be out by the final four, or do I take it seriously and choose a more realistic scenario, at least for the final four, in the hopes of capturing my first CoNCAA 1st place medal? I'll wait for input, but I won't say what decision I make, you'll just have to check my bracket when it opens to find out. |
| Posted by: Stiltzkin 20th March 2019 00:35 |
| Ducks all the way. Back your team! |
| Posted by: LeviathanMist 20th March 2019 02:15 |
Quote (Stiltzkin @ 19th March 2019 17:35) Ducks all the way. Back your team! Backing my team and choosing a potentially winning bracket are mutually exclusive things. I am obviously hoping for my team to go all the way, but I know in my heart it's not gonna happen. |
| Posted by: TheEvilEye 20th March 2019 12:47 |
| As a dedicated, lifetime fan of March Madness, I am certain Virginia will destroy everyone, even Duke Zion. Consider the 1st place award for CoNCAA this year reserved for yours truly. |
| Posted by: Elena99 20th March 2019 22:42 |
Quote (Rangers51 @ 18th March 2019 18:19) Awesome, I assume you are the "Amethyst_Elena" user? If your BF jumps on, let me know who he is too (or get him to sign up at CoN and tell me himself, lol). That is correct! It wouldn't let me be Elena99. He is SabreHawk there Buffalo Sabres + J-hawks. (the Sabres is his fav hockey team) |
| Posted by: Glenn Magus Harvey 21st March 2019 08:26 |
| Last year, "I dunno what I'm doing". But this year, I have submitted "100% Florida RNG Juice". I looked up the odds of each seed pair matchup (assuming such matchups had ever happened before), and dumped the probabilities into a calculator. This was the fastest bracket I've ever made, since instead of reading up on the details of each match, and wrestling with my own brain to try to be unbiased, I just clicked whichever result I got from the calculator. Clearly this is an excellent idea. It's so excellent, in fact, that I accidentally clicked through to enter the Allstate bracket sweepstakes, and I can't delete brackets nor can I remove my entry, so now I will expect Allstate to start showing up next to e-mails about video game internet forums. Anyway, it appears I am just in time before the first skirmish of the sportsball will begin. Let us play the sportsball, and may the best men win, but only if they are from my calculator's choices of winning team. My calculator is the undisputed wizard of NCAA tourney prediction, because clearly no one has ever disputed this claim. |
| Posted by: Rangers51 21st March 2019 14:07 |
| Quote (Elena99 @ 20th March 2019 16:42) He is SabreHawk there Buffalo Sabres + J-hawks. (the Sabres is his fav hockey team) I'm sure he's a nice guy but I think you can probably do better than a Jayhawks fan.  OOOOH TRASH TALK (But really, I hate Kansas) Anyway, games start in just about two hours. If you are reading this and haven't locked in picks for all 63 games, it's your last chance. Edit Also, if you have the bracket "The Once and Future King," please let me know who you are. |
| Posted by: Iain Peregrine 21st March 2019 15:43 |
| Did I make it in time? Bracket: Tunnel Armor |
| Posted by: Rangers51 21st March 2019 16:16 |
Quote (Iain Peregrine @ 21st March 2019 09:43) Did I make it in time? Bracket: Tunnel Armor If it let you join, you were in time! The question is if you got all the picks in. |
| Posted by: Elena99 21st March 2019 22:04 |
Quote (Rangers51 @ 21st March 2019 11:07) I'm sure he's a nice guy but I think you can probably do better than a Jayhawks fan. OOOOH TRASH TALK (But really, I hate Kansas) So that begs the question, who do you like? I'm not going to ask why you hate Kansas, I assume they are a rival. |
| Posted by: Elena99 21st March 2019 22:09 |
Quote (Iain Peregrine @ 21st March 2019 12:43) Did I make it in time? Bracket: Tunnel Armor That is a great bracket name! I panicked and just wrote "Bracket" |
| Posted by: LeviathanMist 25th March 2019 03:53 |
| Here are the teams that have made the Sweet 16, ranked by seed (number in parentheses is the number of CoNCAA members who chose that team as their champion) 1 seeds Duke (7) Virginia (3) Gonzaga (2) North Carolina (2) 2 seeds Tennessee (2) Michigan State (2) Michigan Kentucky 3 seeds LSU Purdue Texas Tech Houston 4 seeds Virginia Tech (1) Florida State 5 seed Auburn 12 seed Oregon (1) In addition, every single champion picked is still in the running. How about that? |
| Posted by: Rangers51 29th March 2019 20:19 |
| I lost my entire final game picks last night. See you next year! |
| Posted by: Glenn Magus Harvey 30th March 2019 02:16 |
Quote (Rangers51 @ 29th March 2019 15:19) I lost my entire final game picks last night. See you next year! Wait, I thought you were in the lead! |
| Posted by: Neal 30th March 2019 13:17 |
| I'm doing......well? It's been awhile. All of the below is based on a 50/50 shot of all games going one way or the other. We know that isn't true, but it's how it's going here. As of the Elite Eight, I'm sitting with the highest % chance among people remaining, 37.5% (48/128). It helps me a ton if Duke and Texas Tech win their next games, and Purdue and Kentucky would also help out. If I somehow got all four of those right, I'd win without any F4 games needing to be played. But picking 7 of the 8 elite eight will do that for you. Tidu wins in 28 scenarios (21.9%). As long as Gonzaga stays around, his chances will stay high. If they win it all, he is guaranteed to win. He still has other paths, but Duke, MSU, and Virginia can't be the winners of the whole tournament or else somebody else takes the title. Xenon wins in 14 scenarios (10.9%). MSU and Purdue have to be in the final four, and Purdue almost certainly have to be in the title game, as there are only two winning scenarios for him where they lose in F4 - the winner of Auburn/UK has to beat them and then lose to MSU in the finals. Gabe also wins in 14 scenarios (10.9%). MSU has to make it to the final four, and a Gonzaga/Purdue combination also in the final four has to NOT happen. The bulk of his winning scenarios need the Spartans to take the whole thing. Iain (13 scenarios, 10.2%) is the benefactor of a Virginia win. All of his winning scenarios have Virginia winning the title, so they really need to go far. It helps him immensely if MSU takes out Duke, as the only three scenarios where UVA wins the title but Iain doesn't win this tourney include Duke in the title game. finalalias and Del (5 scenarios, 3.9%) have the exact same score and the exact same remaining picks, so they can share the title at best. They need Duke in the title game and for Virginia to make the final four. Texas Tech/Kentucky can't BOTH make the final four for them to advance. It helps them if Auburn goes far. Super Moogle (3 scenarios, 2.3%) has a very specific path. MSU must be in the title game, but they can't win. Gonzaga must be in the final four, but obviously can't get to the title as they would have to beat MSU. The winner of Auburn/UK needs to get to the title game, and if Purdue is in the final four, Auburn has to win the title. Make sense? Probably not. Evil Eye (3 scenarios, 2.3%) also has a specific path - basically follow Iain above, but UVA needs to beat Duke in the title game. Gonzaga/Auburn can't both make the final four. It's very narrow, but anything is possible. |
| Posted by: Tidu-who 30th March 2019 14:07 |
| Let's go Zags! Go Tidu! Win!  |
| Posted by: Rangers51 30th March 2019 16:18 |
Quote (Glenn Magus Harvey @ 29th March 2019 20:16) Quote (Rangers51 @ 29th March 2019 15:19) I lost my entire final game picks last night. See you next year! Wait, I thought you were in the lead! I had great picks in the first two rounds, but later rounds are worth more points. Having such a terrible Thursday and Friday this week not only lost me points on those days, but also reduced my number of maximum points by such a degree that there is no way for me to do well from here on out. |
| Posted by: Iain Peregrine 31st March 2019 01:23 |
| Here for the analysis. Thanks for keeping it interesting for this non-sports fan, Neal |
| Posted by: Cefca 1st April 2019 23:34 |
My randomly picked bracket is now stuffing the one I actually picked.  |
| Posted by: Tidu-who 7th April 2019 15:36 |
| Let's go Texas Tech! Finish this thing out! |
| Posted by: Iain Peregrine 8th April 2019 23:45 |
| Quote (Tidu-who @ 7th April 2019 10:36) Let's go Texas Tech! Finish this thing out! I was feeling good about my chances of winning with Virginia vs Texas, but then I remembered that Tidu is a 1 seed, while IP is only, like, a 7. Edit: You finally did it, CoN. You got me watching a game and yelling at the TV. I hope you're proud of yourself. |
| Posted by: Glenn Magus Harvey 9th April 2019 06:02 |
| Quote 1 Tunnel Armor Jacob_IP 230 260 200 80 160 320 Virginia 1250 96.8 2 Six Inches Combined chrisjm16 220 220 160 80 160 320 Virginia 1160 93.7 3 100% Florida RNG Juice Glenn Magus Harvey 200 180 80 80 160 320 Virginia 1020 90.6 All Florida Man did was literally just submit a bracket generated according to seed matchup records entered as probabilities into a TI-89's rand function. How the heck did Florida Man get bronze by doing this? |
| Posted by: TheEvilEye 9th April 2019 12:44 |
| Last I checked I was tied for 10th place and seeing Iain above me with Virginia also as a winner, so I knew I couldn't win. I'll take 2nd! Grats, Iain! |
| Posted by: Rangers51 9th April 2019 14:04 |
| Quote (Glenn Magus Harvey @ 9th April 2019 00:02) Quote Code 1 Tunnel Armor Jacob_IP 230 260 200 80 160 320 Virginia 1250 96.8 2 Six Inches Combined chrisjm16 220 220 160 80 160 320 Virginia 1160 93.7 3 100% Florida RNG Juice Glenn Magus Harvey 200 180 80 80 160 320 Virginia 1020 90.6 All Florida Man did was literally just submit a bracket generated according to seed matchup records entered as probabilities into a TI-89's rand function. How the heck did Florida Man get bronze by doing this? This was a good outcome. I'm pretty sure none of you guys have ever hit the podium in this competition, and it's always fun to see new winners (at least when I have no chance of winning myself). GMH, the reason you did so well is in that last column of (poorly-formatted, lol) scores. Every round is worth a total of 320 points in the scoring system, but that number of points is divided among all the games being played in that round. So the first round, each game is worth only 10, but the final round is worth the whole 320. Getting the champion right means that all three of you got the full 320 for that round, whereas anyone with any different champion pick would have gotten zero. I have made myself a commitment to catching up on awards today, since I still haven't made any for last year's World Cup game. It's a drag, guys! But I'll do my best to get on it. |
| Posted by: Cefca 9th April 2019 19:42 |
| My auto picked bracket finished with 1220 points, the one I picked myself finished with 680. I think I know how I'm doing this from now on. |