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CoNCAA 2012: The Phantom Menace in 3D!

Posted: 18th February 2012 22:14

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It's got an extended podracing scene, and Draymond Green replaces Jar Jar Binks. Even so, nobody wants to see it because nobody outside of East Lansing cares about Michigan State. And because it's Episode I.

Anyway, awkward introduction aside, I got the lowest-numbered group we've ever had for CoNCAA: 436. And that's why this thread is so early this year!

You can still sign up for this year's tournament using your Facebook or Yahoo accounts. You can now also sign up with Google+, if you're someone who actually uses Google+. The link to initiate signup this year is: http://bit.ly/x3WVAq

If you're prompted for any further information, use this:

Group Name: CoNCAA
Group Number: 436
Password: flanitor

Please post your bracket name in this thread, as always, or else it's hard to match up CoN names with Yahoo names. This year, Selection Sunday (the day we find out what teams are involved in the tournament) is on 11 March, and the games that count start on 15 March. That means you'll have the usual three and a half to four days to get your picks in, and we'll make sure to remind you.

Current record for players is twenty-eight. I know CoN isn't as busy as it used to be, but let's try to match that, shall we? I'll say, as always, that you do not have to care one bit about basketball to do this. You could watch every game this year and still fare miserably, and you can also just make wild guesses and you'll still get one or two crazy upsets that nobody else gets right. The fun is in getting everyone else's "I can not frigging believe you got that matchup right!" reactions. smile.gif

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Post #199395
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Posted: 19th February 2012 04:27

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Poor Grendel's Had An Accident.

I'm just hoping for a better showing than last time around.

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Be born then, gasp wind, screech at the surgeon’s slap, seek manhood, taste a little godhood, feel pain, give birth, struggle a little while, succumb: (Dying, leave quietly by the rear exit, please.) Generation, regeneration, again, again, as in a ritual, with blood-stained vestments and nail-torn hands, children of Merlin, chasing a gleam.
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Posted: 19th February 2012 04:37

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Good King Wenceslasz

I'm starting to run out of laszlow puns....

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Posted: 19th February 2012 13:31

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Chest Rockwell.

Last year I completely bombed. The games were still pretty good though. This year can't be as bad for me on the prediction front.

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Scepticism, that dry rot of the intellect, had not left one entire idea in his mind.

Me on the Starcraft.
Post #199400
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Posted: 28th February 2012 14:46

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Don't forget to post your team names in here - only three people have out of the eleven signed up so far, and while a lot of them are obvious, it doesn't hurt to have them posted here too.

Mine is (currently) All Glory to the Hypnoflan.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
Post #199540
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Posted: 28th February 2012 15:54

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Quote (Rangers51 @ 18th February 2012 18:14)
Current record for players is twenty-eight. I know CoN isn't as busy as it used to be, but let's try to match that, shall we? I'll say, as always, that you do not have to care one bit about basketball to do this. You could watch every game this year and still fare miserably, and you can also just make wild guesses and you'll still get one or two crazy upsets that nobody else gets right. The fun is in getting everyone else's "I can not frigging believe you got that matchup right!" reactions. smile.gif

Totally true, it's actually more fun if you have no idea what you're doing.

.... on that note, my team name this year is I Want to be Mike's Canary.

tongue.gif

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Most Recently Beat : To the Moon
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Posted: 28th February 2012 17:16

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Quote (Rangers51 @ 18th February 2012 14:14)
Current record for players is twenty-eight. I know CoN isn't as busy as it used to be, but let's try to match that, shall we? I'll say, as always, that you do not have to care one bit about basketball to do this.

Plus, for those of us not really into basketball, it gives us a reason to watch the games--and more importantly, it offers plenty of reasons to have fun doing so.

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Be born then, gasp wind, screech at the surgeon’s slap, seek manhood, taste a little godhood, feel pain, give birth, struggle a little while, succumb: (Dying, leave quietly by the rear exit, please.) Generation, regeneration, again, again, as in a ritual, with blood-stained vestments and nail-torn hands, children of Merlin, chasing a gleam.
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Posted: 28th February 2012 17:32

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My mostly-inappropriate name this season is Three Minute Siren Orgy, which was my interpretation of the beginning of a battle I had in Final Fantasy 13-2 recently.

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
Post #199546
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Posted: 1st March 2012 16:54

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Crusader
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I can't wait to fail my exam during the first round.

Until something funny comes up, The Jeremy Lin Show.

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I find your lack of faith disturbing...
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Posted: 7th March 2012 12:57

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OK, it's about time to start harassing people. We're only at 13 and the games start a week from tomorrow. If you've signed up, kindly harass others. smile.gif

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
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Posted: 11th March 2012 03:43

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I like cheese. What..... I do

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Posted: 11th March 2012 04:58

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I am so terrified of my bubble-team alma mater not making the tournament that I will not sleep soundly tonight. That's not my team name, just a fact.

EDIT:

Hey Josh, my blue-and-orange team's gonna beat up your blue-and-orange team. Bring it on.

This post has been edited by laszlow on 11th March 2012 22:22

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Post #199739
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Posted: 12th March 2012 00:07

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Mine's Depreciation.
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Posted: 12th March 2012 01:13

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Quote (laszlow @ 10th March 2012 23:58)
I am so terrified of my bubble-team alma mater not making the tournament that I will not sleep soundly tonight. That's not my team name, just a fact.

EDIT:

Hey Josh, my blue-and-orange team's gonna beat up your blue-and-orange team. Bring it on.

If you put them against each other, royal blue always beats navy. I can back it up with SCIENCE.

(For a brief second I thought someone actually thought my alma mater made it in. Boooooo. sad.gif )

So, the brackets are set now, so if you've signed up, you have about three and a half days to get your picks in. As always, chat is full of advice, either on how the whole thing works or on specific matchups. I'll be trying to harass folks to get our numbers up over the next couple days - harass people on your own too!

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
Post #199746
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Posted: 12th March 2012 16:04

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Red Wing Pilot
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Attempting to defend the throne. I'm in.

Team OG 4 Three

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RUMBO AL MUNDIAL, RUSIA 2018, ARRIBA MEXICO!!

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Posted: 12th March 2012 17:07

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This is the most difficult set of brackets I can remember. I'm just staring at it, unable to actually reason out a great number of the picks. Should be an awesome tournament as a result!

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
Post #199750
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Posted: 12th March 2012 17:38

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Mine is: Te'o For Heisman. I'll be honest I haven't been as immersed in college hoops this season. However, i'll be rooting for my Irish.
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Posted: 12th March 2012 18:24

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Quote (Neal @ 12th March 2012 09:07)
This is the most difficult set of brackets I can remember. I'm just staring at it, unable to actually reason out a great number of the picks. Should be an awesome tournament as a result!

This.

Every time I think I've got it figured out, I think, "Well, so-and-so not only could, but very well may step up and change things." In the end, I walked away, came back, and did a gut reaction, no-take-backs method. I ended up with top-seeded teams in the finals and only a couple upsets, so it may not be the most exciting bracket, but here's hoping I get a better showing than previous years.

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Be born then, gasp wind, screech at the surgeon’s slap, seek manhood, taste a little godhood, feel pain, give birth, struggle a little while, succumb: (Dying, leave quietly by the rear exit, please.) Generation, regeneration, again, again, as in a ritual, with blood-stained vestments and nail-torn hands, children of Merlin, chasing a gleam.
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Posted: 13th March 2012 02:32

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Tidu's Teabaggers back for another run!

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I should've known, walked all the way home
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Posted: 13th March 2012 13:34

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Galvatron's Glory returns!

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Posted: 13th March 2012 13:54

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I am Flandragora smile.gif Texas ftw!

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Posted: 14th March 2012 15:41

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I am Spacko's Bracko.
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Posted: 14th March 2012 16:10

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I just sent out one last blast of FB messages to people who have played in the past. Picks have to be in a little under 24 hours from now, and we currently have 22 players. Not real bad, if you ask me - not at our historic-high of 28 that we've had the last two years, but honestly, we don't have as many people around now, and 22 isn't awful. I'll compile the list of forum names to team names later on, and don't forget to ask here or in chat if you have any questions.

Edit:
Here are the 24 players we have now -
All Glory to the HypnoflanR51
Three Minute Siren OrgyNeal
DepreciationAnh
I Want To Be Your Canaryfootbigmike
Chest Rockwellsweetdude
Fnar MastersDel
This only used 29 characters.MeHael
I Want to Be Mike's CanaryDeath Penalty
Good King Wenceslaszlaszlow
Poor Grendel's Had An AccidentKane
Tidu's TeabaggersTidu-who
Fab Melo's GPAKappa
The Prime TimelineGabe
Bobbo Joins at the Last SecondSabin
Anthony Davis' GogglesGears
I like cheeseFadien
LOL Maryland 4 - LOL TurgeonSuper Moogle
OG 4 ThreeBaralai
Te'o For HeismanGamblingCat
FlandragoraRelmArrowney
Galvatron's GloryNytecrawla
Spacko's BrackoCefca
Admiral Steven BracketTiddles
Better Late Than NeverSSJ_Cloud
Don't even like Jean DujardinMr Thou


This post has been edited by Rangers51 on 15th March 2012 13:25

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
Post #199764
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Posted: 16th March 2012 22:53

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Well, I took some big chances in my bracket this year, knowing I'd either come out on top or go down in flames. I didn't think it would happen this early - bye, Mizzou.

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"To create something great, you need the means to make a lot of really bad crap." - Kevin Kelly

Why aren't you shopping AmaCoN?
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Posted: 17th March 2012 13:02

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I hate that I listened to Neal when he said I was crazy to take Ohio over U-M. sad.gif

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And have you found your joy, in this near dead world of ours?
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Posted: 21st March 2012 00:38

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Well. This is going to be interesting wink.gif

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Posted: 21st March 2012 05:29

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So as usual, I wrote a spreadsheet to calculate the likelihood of everyone winning. It's based on the picks going 50/50 in either direction, even though we know that's not always going to be the case, like Kansas vs NC State. Either way, there are 32,768 possibilities for how the tournament will end, and this goes in that direction.

This excludes ties (in favor of the participant currently leading in the standings), which I can't better account for with this large of a spreadsheet, so take these percentages with a grain of salt.

Gabe: 4,422 / 32,768 = 13.5%
Nyte: 3,916 / 32,768 = 12.0%
DP: 3,914 / 32,768 = 11.9%
Neal: 3,607 / 32,768 = 11.0%
Bobbo: 2,984 / 32,768 = 9.1%
Lasz: 2,324 / 32,768 = 7.1%
Chris: 2,300 / 32,768 = 7.0%
Kane: 1,744 / 32,768 = 5.3%
Baralai: 1,412 / 32.768 = 4.3%
Mike: 1,398 / 32,768 = 4.3%
Tidu: 1,350 / 32,768 = 4.1%
Tiddles: 858 / 32,768 = 2.6%
Fadien: 652 / 32,768 = 2.0%
Sweets: 620 / 32,768 = 1.9%
Cefca: 454 / 32,768 = 1.4%
Anh: 406 / 32,768 = 1.2%
Nate: 200 / 32,768 = 0.6%
Ryan: 188 / 32,768 = 0.6%
Ashley: 16 / 32,768 = 0.05%
GamblingCat: 3 / 32,768 = 0.01%

Unlike last year, there are only a few eliminated contestants at this point. Having 20 people still in it with only 16 teams remaining is a really large amount. So let's cover the people already eliminated...

MeHael: No picks, no guts, no glory, no victory. Booooooooo

Gears: An early exit for a perennial competitor, sadly. Not a lot of missing picks in the future, but one missing Final Four pick along with a very common champion has ended this run early.

Josh: That's what you get for picking your alma mater's rival to win the whole thing. At least you can be happy that Missouri is out.

Dave: Only one final four team left, and they don't advance. Can't make it without your top two teams in the tourney.

Del: Not a single pick left remains! At least you got some points on the way there.

Taking a peek at contestants who are likely to be eliminated shortly....

GamblingCat (0.01%): Hilariously still in it with just three possibilities, pretty much EVERYTHING has to go right. Ohio State needs to make it to the title game, but they would have to lose to somebody weird like Florida or Xavier. A whole mess of other things would have to go right as well. I'd say it'll never happen, but Mike once won this competition.

Ashley (0.05%): The only competitor to have NC State in the elite eight, that needs to happen for Ashley to stay alive. Also, Baylor needs to go as far as possible, though they would then probably need to lose to NC State. Those might actually be the 16 possibilities she has.

Ryan (0.6%): Luckily, his final four is intact. Wisconsin needs to beat Syracuse, Baylor needs to beat Xavier, and Kentucky must beat UNC in the championship game.

Nate (0.6%): Exactly the same situation as Ryan above, but Syracuse must beat Wisconsin. Other than that they have the same possible picks going forward.

Anh (1.2%): Though he has a lot of points to this point, he's missing a final four pick and has a lot of common picks going forward. He needs to make up for the Duke and Missouri with the uncommon teams (Xavier and Florida) advancing.

Cefca (1.4%): Similar to Josh, Missouri winning it all is no longer an option. However, he still has Syracuse going further than anybody else in the tournament. He needs to ride them all the way and hope for some other upsets as well.

Sweets (1.9%): Sweets has Ohio State winning it all, which has to happen. Unfortunately, he has them doing so against Memphis, so he will need an uncommon challenger, like Xavier or Florida, to do well to prevent others from getting points.

Fadien (2.0%): Fadien benefits from an uncommon champ in Michigan State. They need to go pretty far. Xavier must beat Baylor for him to have any shot at it.

Tiddles (2.6%): Tiddles is suffering from two missing final four picks, which is why he's so far down with the highest point total so far. Kentucky must beat Kansas in the final game, and along the way, Baylor beating Xavier and Michigan State losing to Louisville would help quite a bit.

That's where I think we stand right now. I don't see anyone else bowing out before we narrow the field to twelve teams, but who knows!

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Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
Post #199825
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Posted: 23rd March 2012 17:03

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Disciplinary Committee Member
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So.... I'm out......... sad.gif


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"And that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana-shaped” -Sir Bedevere the Wise
Post #199834
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Posted: 24th March 2012 03:21

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Cactuar
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LOL That was a HUGE fall for me.
Post #199837
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Posted: 24th March 2012 05:35

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Lucky <3
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Joined: 1/1/2001

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Major involvement in the Final Fantasy VI section of CoN. Participated at the forums for the CoN's 15th birthday! User has rated 500 fanarts in the CoN galleries. User has rated 300 fanarts in the CoN galleries. 
User has rated 150 fanarts in the CoN galleries. User has rated 75 fanarts in the CoN galleries. User has rated 25 fanarts in the CoN galleries. Contributed to the Final Fantasy V section of CoN. 
See More (Total 21)
As we go from 32,768 possibilities left to 128, things become much more manageable! Eight more teams have been eliminated and we are left with quite possibly the most boring elite eight ever. Bleh. At least the games should be good!

Seven more CoNtestants were eliminated over the last two days, all but one of them already profiled in my previous analysis. We have lost Anh, Lasz, Fadien, Ryan, GamblingCat, Ashley, and Cefca. Lasz took the hard fall with Marquette and no scenarios still exist where he can win.

Alright, the remaining percentages now do include ties! I'll profile from least likely to most likely, assuming that all remaining games have a 50% chance of going either way...and actually, considering the teams remaining, that's really not that far off from the likelihood.

Lol No

Tiddles (1 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Kentucky, Kansas
In all honesty, his key team is All Of His teams, as there is only one scenario in which Tiddles can win. Kentucky must beat Florida, Kansas must beat Ohio State, and then Kentucky must win the whole thing. And really, that doesn't seem that far-fetched given how the games are going so far. It's just very, very specific.

Gabe (4 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Louisville/Florida winner, Kansas
Gabe is pretty specific. He needs both Ohio State and Kansas in the Final Four, then Kansas must beat Ohio State and lose to the winner of the Florida/Louisville game in the championship. Sound easy? That means Louisville or Florida will have to beat Kentucky if they get past Baylor. Boop.

Super Moogle (4.5 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: North Carolina
Though there's a scenario where he can win with Louisville, UNC needs to keep going and keep going hard. Baylor also must beat Kentucky in the next round - there doesn't exist a scenario where Kentucky makes the Final Four and SM wins the whole thing.

Baralai (5 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Baylor
There's a weird scenario where Baralai can win with a Syracuse victory, but in general that region doesn't matter. Baralai needs a Baylor/Louisville final four matchup followed by a Baylor championship. Kansas must also make the final four but it doesn't seem to matter if they win or not.

Hmmmmmm

Bobbo (5.5 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Syracuse, Kentucky, Louisville
Bobbo is a strange bug here as he is involved in a LOT of tie scenarios, so he stands a fair chance of tying someone for first (mostly Tidu). Louisville, Syracuse, and Kansas must all make the Final Four, but if that happens he has a lot of scenarios where he can win. He seems to benefit the most from a Syracuse/Louisville finale. Kansas cannot win the whole thing.

Sweetdude (8 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Ohio State
Sweets needs Ohio State to win the whole thing, and Kansas must make the Final Four. If those two things happen, he automatically wins. No other team matters!

Nate (8.5 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Kentucky, North Carolina
Though Nate can also win with a Louisville or Florida victory, the main thing he needs is for Kentucky to beat North Carolina in the final game. They could also take out Syracuse in a couple cases, but that gives him the best chance for a win.

In For The Long Haul

Neal (10 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Ohio State
Ohio State has to make it to the title game, but they cannot win there. They'll have to lose to either Kentucky, Louisville, or Florida there - there are still a couple instances where Baylor can beat Kentucky, but for the most part he needs Kentucky and Ohio State to fly.

Death Penalty (10 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Ohio State, UNC
Geoffrey has a lot of the Ohio State winning combinations that Sweets does not. Ohio State must beat UNC in the final four game, and Ohio State needs to win that, but he has scenarios against all four remaining teams on the other side of the bracket. He has a lot more diverse of options than I do, though we remain equal in scenarios.

Tidu (12 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Florida, Syracuse, Kansas
Tidu needs the three key teams above to all make it to the final four, but after that, he has a lot of options. They can pretty much do whatever at that point. He has the most options with Florida and Syracuse in the final game. It helps him more if Kentucky beats Baylor, but he can still win even without that.

Front-Runners

Kane (16 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Kansas!
Kansas allllll the way for Kane! Kane wins the whole thing if Kansas wins and nothing else matters whatsoever. Doesn't matter if it's Kentucky, Baylor, Florida, or Louisville...Kane wins. Not a bad shot, though everybody seems to be giving Kansas trouble.

Mike (20 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: North Carolina
Mike has a very diverse spread among teams that give him a good opportunity to win. North Carolina has to make it to the Final Four - if they don't, all twenty of those opportunities disappear. In various scenarios, though, he can win with Syracuse, North Carolina, Louisville, or Florida as the champ, so he's got a lot of shots.Ohio State or Kansas can not make the title game.

Nyte (23 / 128 combinations)
Key Team: Baylor
Though Nyte has the most chances to win the whole thing, his hopes rest entirely on Baylor in the next round. Baylor beats Kentucky in all 23 of his championships, so that is the first must-win. He has the best shot with a Baylor/Florida/Syracuse/North Carolina final four, and the best shot with Baylor and UNC in the title game. Lots of options in any case...as long as Baylor wins.

It's pretty amazing that there are thirteen participants with a decent shot at winning this thing. Last year at this point, there were only eight left, and two of them had only a half combo chance of winning.

If I were to bet on the rest of the tournament, based on how all the teams are playing...I would actually pick Tiddles' one single scenario to come true. How weird would that be?

--------------------
Hey, put the cellphone down for a while
In the night there is something wild
Can you hear it breathing?
And hey, put the laptop down for a while
In the night there is something wild
I feel it, it's leaving me
Post #199838
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